How much do events in Sudan affect Ethiopia’s internal politics and eventually sub-regional affairs? Ever since former president Omar al Bashir was deposed on April 11, 2019, Sudan has been in turmoil and the Sudanese people have been showing openly and courageously all their disgust and repugnance to any sort of military rule even at the transitional level. They would not settle for any compromise that would involve too much the military or put them in the driver’s seat. It is evident that they have had enough of military rule as in practice they have had it for more than five decades.
General Nimeiri was a military strongman as was Bashir and together they ruled Sudan for decades giving little chance for any form of meaningful civilian multiparty democracy and independent democratic institutions. Hence, no wonder that the Sudanese seem to be ready to pay any sacrifice in order to have the kind of government they would have missed and fancied for years. In fact, they continue to occupy the foreground of the headquarters of the military establishment despite progress announced in the formation of the transitional government. Many say after all the Arab spring had to come to Sudan sooner or later, and stay. With the kind of economic challenges the country had been facing with little response from the government, it was inevitable that things had to move in the direction they did.
Sudan is an enormous country with huge potential for economic transformation and yet with a people subjected to a dictatorial type of government and not using the full potential of its resources, the people were forced to struggle in dire poverty. It could be said that for the last thirty years Omar al Bashir ruled Sudan with a firm hand doing away with virtually all forms of rivalry, dissent and opposition. The elections conducted had a lot to be desired in international standard terms even though Sudan did stage elections several times. We know most elections in Africa come short of certain prerequisites in terms of freedom and fairness as well as transparency.
The lack of reliable democratic institutions has often resulted in elections being at best irregular and at times rigged altogether in open daylight. Ethiopia has had this experience as have many an African nation. There were few signs of democracy in Sudan and the people had little chance of removing the government with the ballot box. Bashir’s grip was too strong and deep until very lately. Earlier, he was accused of repressing opposition in Darfour and his actions there were condemned as causing what was qualified by several human rights organisations as ‘war crimes’ and ‘crimes against humanity’.
Some did not even hesitate to qualify it as ‘genocide’. Bashir eliminated all forms of opposition in the regional state allegedly using the so called Janjaweed militia which many claimed were trained and dispatched by him. These groups were considered ruthless in that they used all forms of the most despicable methods to suppress rebellion. Other regional splinter groups in the region were also put down with force and the government did not seem to bother about the humanitarian costs for the campaigns carried out. Similar campaigns were reportedly carried out when it came to the secessionist factions in South Sudan until finally a deal was carved and South Sudan obtained its independence from the North.
Despite the peaceful resolution of the South Sudan crisis, Sudan did not however attain the kind of progress and development its people aspired for and it was the simple addition of the price of food items, notably bread, that created the outburst and became the last straw that drew down the president. Nevertheless, even if Bashir may have been removed and probably face certain charges for the abuse of power and the commission of certain heinous crimes, the establishment that was behind the leader, the system that flourished during the decades have not come down. And it is evident that this is not a simple task to be achieved overnight.
More or less similar challenges are being experienced in Ethiopia even if the kind of transition between Ethiopia and Sudan differ fundamentally. Basically however, the things that people actually crave for are in both cases one and the same: Democracy and Justice. In both cases there are formidable challenges within the economy, unemployment is rife and the distribution of resources and equality before the law are lacking. The diversity of the peoples and the feeling that only a few groups have been running the country has worsened the situation in both cases. Hence, there is urgent need to rectify wrongs and there is need to found new and strong independent democratic institutions that must be built with a free, fair and transparent electoral process.
In terms of multiplicity of parties, Ethiopia may appear to be slightly better off than Sudan but in freedom of expression terms Sudan was slightly ahead even before the transition. Currently, the situation in Ethiopia is reputed to be much better than Sudan. Many argue Sudan has still a long way to go before it can have the kind of freedom of expression currently reigning in Ethiopia. In any manner, the situation in Sudan is being closely watched by Ethiopia because the stakes are very high. Any potential hijacking of the revolution or transition by some sectarian extremist group would have catastrophic consequences on the subregion.
If Sudan needs the support and cooperation of its neighbours such as Ethiopia and other nations in the IGAD system as well as the AU, it should be accorded with open heart. Positive developments in Sudan have positive impact in the sub-region and eventually on the continent. The two countries have so many common interests not least the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, (GERD), project over the Nile that has a direct bearing not only on Sudan but also on Egypt and in general in the neighbourhood. The relations between the two countries have come of age lately with joint ministerial commissions that manage the relations and given the long border which is porous and hence allows for free movements of people.
The two governments need to meet and consult each other as often as possible and regulate their affairs with full candidness and understanding avoiding unnecessary misunderstanding and disputes. Historically, the two countries have lived lots of chapters commonly, some sad, others happy ones, and we have reached the current state conscious of our common tradition. There are cultural ties between the two peoples and we know for instance how many Sudanese songs have influenced ours, and are liked by Ethiopians as are Ethiopian songs in Sudan.
The people to people relations are intense and extensive and we share so many traditions. That is why anything that happens in Sudan is bound to affect Ethiopia. When Sudan catches cold we can say that Ethiopia sneezes. With the new vision of the current Ethiopian prime minister which envisages more integration and with the vision of the African Union that promotes African integration beginning with more intense regional integration and more interchanges of commerce and investment, it would be naïve to expect that Ethiopia be a passive onlooker of what is going on but without of course any interference.
The power play in Sudan has its own process and flow but Ethiopia is watchful and continues to consult with the new leadership to make sure that the commitments made by the past regime would not fall in oblivion or lead to misunderstanding. A change in government normally should not affect the basic relations of neighbours such as Ethiopia and Sudan; and in fact when a year ago the new Ethiopian prime minister came to office, he made it clear that the country would continue with the excellent relations between the neighbours including dismantling the wall of division and hatred with neighbouring Eritrea.
Since then Dr. Abiy has even been engaged in trying to create an atmosphere of peace and reconciliation in the entire neighbourhood and that is why there were repeated contacts between the Ethiopian government and the Transitional Military Council, TMC, with high level delegations going to Khartoum and meeting with the leaders while their representatives did come to talk with Addis Ababa. Ethiopia congratulates the people of Sudan in their bid to introduce firm democratic institutions and satisfy the legitimate aspirations of the people without discrimination and stigma. And it leaves the decision to the Sudanese to elect the kind of government they want. However, it continues to monitor closely the situation and the developments and auspicates that things get settled sooner than later and in a peaceful manner avoiding clashes and displacements.
We know that in the past with the civil war underway, thousands of Sudanese sought refuge in Ethiopia as did many Ethiopians during the military rule in the seventies and eighties. We hope that similar scenario will not recur again because the two peoples have suffered enough of warfare and clashes and enough deaths and destruction. The future of the two countries will hopefully be bright and once things settle we will have to engage in changing the lives of the common people and not enrich a certain group only at the expense of the masses.
The Ethiopian Herald Sunday Edition May 26/2019
BY FITSUM GETACHEW
