BY SILEWUNET BELACHEW
Since the end of the colonial period, the Horn of Africa has been devastated by inter-state and intra-state conflicts, especially during the post-independence era, which started in 1956 when Sudan became the first country in Sub-Saharan Africa to achieve independence and still remains today.
Equally, Sudan’s 65 years of liberty from the colonial masters have been in a spoiled political situation and dominated by the leadership of dozens of military governments that gained power through coup d’état. This has incubated multiple third-party involvement that has shaped the ideological and diplomatic position of regimes in Khartoum which greatly disturbed the country’s relationship with other neighbouring countries as well as the region’s stability and development.
Despite the fact that myriads of political, social, and economic factors contributed to the overall status of the region, such factors received little consideration in the exiting literatures. It is almost overlooked that Sudan’s shifting diplomatic ties with the horn countries and insalubrious friendships with Egypt, coupled with their fragile government system, has had massive consequences on the instability of the region for decades. This can be one of the main reasons why conflict management in the Horn of Africa has been unsuccessful and incessantly challenging.
Sudan and Military Regimes
Military regimes in Sudan have a history of being the core problem for the regional stability. As usual the recent Transitional Military Council, that came to power following Sudanese revolution in 2018, and led by General Al-Burhan is pulling back the country into conflicts with Ethiopia, while Sudan is still in the middle of a painful and uncertain political transition following the coup d’état.
Though, Sudan current situation doesn’t need such external conflicts except a peaceful transition of power from the military element to the civilians which actually is on the verge of failure, thanks to the ruling military stubbornness and Egypt’s detested involvement.
It has further divided the country’s elites as Power remains contested between multiple political actors, parties and armed groups that are trying to establish their place in the new political order. And such political havoc in Sudan usually serves as a fertile land for Egyptians to destabilize the region and sustain their hydro hegemonic aspirations.
As part of the main tactics, Sudanese military government’s booming relationship with their former co-colonizer, to attack and demonize Ethiopia, masqueraded with a border conflict, targeted to halt the finishing of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam which can a massively contribute to the regional electric power demand. Yet, this doesn’t benefit both Sudan and Ethiopia, except further adding more tensions to the wounded regional stability.
Sudan’s wavering diplomatic relationships with the Horn countries and insalubrious bond with Egypt and the likes has been serving as a medium of chaos and a fertile ground for Egypt’s long lasting evil seeds that must stop here. And Sudan’s military government should take a responsibility for being a fertile ground for third parties like Egypt that has a sole desire of profiting through the misfortunes of the people of the region.
Should Sudan continue to be the political puppet of the pharaohs, state fragmentation and new civil war could follow, with consequences not only for Sudan but for the wider region as well. The incumbent administration should learn from the mistakes of the past regimes that have proven to be fatal.
The Ethiopian Herald March 28/2021
