BY SOLOMON DIBABA
All conspiracy theories that are fanned to destabilize the socio-economic and political fabric in Ethiopia are doomed to fail but the atmosphere they create in promoting terrorist organizations that are mushrooming in Africa by enhancing conspiracy theories will have far reaching repercussions that will not be limited only to the territories of Ethiopia but would in fact engulf the entire region. This is indeed not a speculation or careful guess but is in fact happening before our eyes.
Ethiopia has been targeted by terrorist organizations since early 90s when the transitional government of Ethiopia was only under formation. These organizations tried to exploit the period between the fall of the Derge regime and attempts towards the formation of a civil government in Ethiopia. The country was forced to single handedly repulse all the unprovoked attacks one by one.
The Islamic courts in Somalia actually declared a Jihad on Ethiopia with no specific justification on both religious and political grounds as part of their older desire to recreate Greater Somalia. They masterminded the assassination of Dr. Abdulmajid Hussein and, they bombed Ghion Hotel and also locations in Dire Dawa.
They tried to bombard a fuel depot on the outskirts of Addis Ababa. Ethiopia was forced to singlehandedly defend her territorial integrity and was even blamed by the big powers and the opposition for intervening into Somalia to chase the enemies of the country right up to their bases in Somalia.
A terrorist organization was actually behind the assassination of a Muslim cleric in Dissie in Northen Wollo Zone. Later on Al-Shebab became the driving force of terrorist activities in the Horn of Africa in late 90s. Once again Ethiopia deployed its forces to Somalia to ensure the territorial integrity and peace in the eastern part of the country by joining AMISOM under the auspices of the AU peace keeping mission.
My point is how the spread of conspiracy theories relate to the issue of the proliferation of ethnic conflicts in Ethiopia impact the entire situation in the Horn of Africa? Beyond the territories of East Africa, terrorist organizations exploited the religious conflicts between the Shia and Sunni in Iraq and quickly expanded their territories to Syria in a very short period of time through the support provided to them in a clandestine manner under the name of ISIS. Heeding to their sugar coated propaganda, thousands of youth in the major European countries joined ISIS which has now become a threat to peace and security worldwide.
In Somalia, Al-Shabab which has professed to be a self-sustaining organization claiming to confine itself only in Somalia has now joined hands with A-Qaida and the ISIS for yet another round of Trans -boundary terrorist mission.
They are now actively working towards their global dream of forming a caliphate and included Ethiopia in their makeshift map. Of late ISIS has reportedly been weakened in Iraq and Syria by the military might of the allied forces but this organization is still alive under the guise of a number of subsidiary terrorist units in The Magreb and Western Africa, Boko Haram included.
The ISIS either instigates religious conflicts from a scratch or uses existing religious and ethnic conflicts as an opportunity to recruit new fighters and also to gain financial resources as they particularly did in Iraq. In the recent past, Ethiopian security forces foiled attempts by a small group of terrorists who tried to gain ground in Bale Zone assuming that Ethiopia was at her weaker link in the area.
ISIS understands the cultural and ethnic diversity in Ethiopia and is apparently conscious of the possibility of expanding its political influence in Ethiopia. The misinformation and propaganda war on Ethiopia is creating a favorable social consciousness towards infesting Ethiopia with multitude of terrorist groups.
This terrorist organization uses religious extremists and potential zealots for obtaining new recruits and possible financial resources. Among other things, ISIS attempts to use public grievances, economic crisis in a country and polarized differences and disunity among the peoples of Ethiopia.
The propaganda war on Ethiopia regarding the situation in Tigray indirectly supports the possibility of the ramification of terrorist groups in the region.
ISIS, Al- Qaida, Al-Shebaba and Boko Haram uses religious extremism as a window dressing for their vested political ambitions but have certainly not been true advocates of Islam as its actions worldwide show.
Some of us might think that it is foolish to think of the proliferation of ethnic and religious conflicts as a good breeding ground for terrorist organizations like Al-Shebab and ISIS.
However ISIS instigated terrorist actions have globally demonstrated that they waste no time to use such volatile situations for their own vested interests to spread their political agenda. Again, global media war on Ethiopia is coming to their aid by spreading false information that could trigger ethic based conflicts.
Terrorist organizations use unemployed and dissatisfied men and women, mostly the youth to beef up their rank and file. They are always behind the influx of refugees to a neighboring country and more vigorously for the flight of refugees to a number of European countries.
The fight against terrorism, as I have noted earlier can easily be hampered by various factors but ethnic conflicts and conspiracy theories not only weaken the social fabric that has united the peoples of Ethiopia for thousands of years but also create an excellent breeding ground for any level of political terrorism.
Some people may disagree with me asserting that this situation cannot happen in Ethiopia but I am not sure of the fact that religious conflicts cannot contribute to the proliferation of terrorism in this country either in the short run or through time.
Look at what we have witnessed over the last several years. The country had to shoulder the burden of over two million forcefully displaced persons.
It has witnessed the escalation of arms smuggling through a number of porous borders with the neighboring countries. Unimaginable amount of foreign currency had continued to be smuggled out of the country while the nation is in dire need of foreign currency.
A considerable amount of gold is being smuggled out of the country and nobody can exactly tell where all this would end up.
There is ample evidence worldwide that porous borders can be used by terrorist organizations like Al-Shabab and ISIS to sneak into the country to conduct terrorist activities of their choice. It is to be recalled that Al-Shabab has tried to kill peaceful spectators who were watching soccer games here in Addis Ababa.
ISIS does not use only ethnic conflicts that are ongoing but they have all the ability to instigate religious based conflicts anew.
Now, it would not be enough only to highlight on the dangers paused by false propaganda on Ethiopia from the political perspectives. There are also economic implications behind the proliferation of ethnic based conflicts. Such conflicts hinder sustained peace and also hinder the free flow of FDI and trade into and from the country but would encourage illicit trade and controband. Besides we have all witnessed the outcomes of the conflicts that were spread over the southern part of the country over the last two years
Although the crisis was triggered by a formal request from the Sidama Zone to be upgraded into a regional state the issue was quickly hijacked into indiscriminate looting, killings in an atrocious manner and destruction on public and private properties including schools and hospitals. I do not personally rule out the fact that terrorists organized or on standalone basis can exploit such appalling conditions.
If such are the cases, what solutions can one think of in terms of at least reducing the effects of such volatile conditions? I am not convinced with the assertion that only political declarations and flowery press releases can bring about the desired solution.
I think it is very important to conduct public debates at the grassroots level with all concerned instead of limiting oneself only to cozy conference rooms. I also believe in the formation of a nationwide early warning system in which all concerned stakeholders and the larger public can participate. TPLF organized tragic massacres in Mai Kadra, Setit Humera. Metekel and Gulliso area in Western Wollega Zone have always been accompanied by conspiracy theory, false propaganda and systematic misinformation by the media including social media.
Leaders of various religious organizations for instance coordinated by Inter-Religious Council of Ethiopia in my opinion have all the capacity to come up with viable and applicable strategies to curb both ethnic and religion based conflicts and the spread of religious extremism of any type.
By and large, it is very urgent and important to accelerate reforms not only in public socio-economic sectors but also in the operations of the private sector and civil society organizations that operate on peace and reconciliation programs by according higher priority to the needs of the public.
As the 6th National election is in sight the government needs to urgently work on the prevalence of peace by mobilizing all competing political parties to directly fight off false propaganda on the country they wish to rule if elected. The government and its security forces alone cannot dish out peace to everyone. Peace should prevail through the concerted efforts of all concerned
The Ethiopian Herald March 25/2021
