BY TESFAYE DESALEGNE (Ph.D)
US based Independent Researcher
The Prognosis
Ethiopians are no strangers to a turbulent political life. They fought against foreign enemies, endured long civil wars and suffered from iron fist of brutal dictators. However, the 1991’s transition to an ethnocentric political system is the biggest evil of all.
This was an abrupt change of ideological and class struggle into an ethnic politics that threw the country from the frying pan into the fire. The epiphany of all this was when Ethiopians saw a head of state who officially declared more loyalty to his ethnic group than the nation.
No doubt, some merits of the ethnic politics are clear and loud. Respecting rights of all ethnic groups is not only an essential political system, but a guarantee for any country’s stability. Equitable representation of ethnic groups in government, self-administration, dignity of cultures and language should be undisputed priority of a multi-national country like Ethiopia. But to make the ethnic politics as the lifeblood of a nation is the greatest error of judgment.
As Ethiopia’s ethnic experiment switched gears to a primitive primordiamlism, its toll was massive. It weakened the nation-state as the Tigrean People Liberation Front (TPLF) effectively deconstructed the Ethiopian statehood. The ethnic configuration effectively closed its doors on the urban population, and the intermingled society.
Not only did TPLF imposed ethnic federalism with its inherent precipice on the one hand, but also implemented it on a complete bogus form. The design and execution of the TPLF project was deeply flawed. Rather than ensuring equality of ethnic groups, advancement of hierarchical ethnic relations became too obvious, TPLF being at the top of all.
The ethnocentric policy was injected in the veins of every organization, administration or on statutes of people’s rights in the common workplace. Public servants were forced to regroup in their respective ethnic coalitions, either willingly, or under the guise of ‘development’ association narratives. Being Ethiopian and talking national would soon become a thing of the past.
TPLF’s leadership was bogged down on scrambling the fads of what it called the age old “neftegna” class, trading that term and giving life to the benign concept to the rest of the ethnically regrouped parties, in its party manifesto. Others were busy on dismantling the “supremacy” of the “Amhara” and “Orthodox” Christianity as the two check points of their ascendancy to the throne.
The country’s political economy was effectively based on a patron-clientele relationship, virtually on every aspect of life. Where it was not ethnic clientelism, it was political clientelism that sustained the system. Loyalty to the power-holder was the basis of access to resources.
It is not surprising that at the end of the 27 years of the TPLF regime, the economic landscape became radically different from 1991, as party and tribal members disproportionately benefited from the corrupt practices.
It became widely apparent that the only shortcut to getting rich would be through the clientele networks to the leading patron oligarchs, as millions were out of the game.
The TPLF regime did everything to bring economic growth to prove to the world spectators that its political paradigm was working well. It launched the developmental state and revolutionary democracy as the pillars of the system, to evade questions of human rights abuse and political dissent.
The bankrupt philosophy of the TPLF has stayed long enough in the memories of Ethiopians whose collective psyche rejected the system, loud and clear. Even if the demise of the TPLF became all too apparent, it must be remembered that the ethnic politics has already anchored in the backyards of large portions of the Ethiopian society, posing a titanic challenge.
The country’s political life is contingent upon how successful the project of a vibrant post-TPLF society is built. Redressing of the inherent anomalies is fundamental in the areas of the political dialogue, national security, conflict resolution and peace building, governance and rule of law and in the areas of economic policy. The following elements are worthy of mention.
Political Discourse
The Ethiopian renaissance is contingent upon the success of how much the society is delinked from the 27 years of false narratives. The primordial self-identity should be debunked. Society should embrace a progressive self-identity, rather than sacrosanct and suppressive ethnic box.
It is hugely imperative to nourish the concept of professional identity, as proud Ethiopian teacher, farmer, medical doctor, or a national defense force. A project of large-scale needs on the citizenry of people rather than the tribal fragmentation.
No doubt, the role of embracing a national party thinking is monumental in the process. People’s party affiliation should cross over their ethnic association. Any Ethiopian should have a mobility between parties on the basis of political programs.
Clearly, the post TPLF society requires a genuine national consensus building that needs auditing of outstanding grievances. The culture of making concessions is imperative from all segments of society to see a better future.
Making a fair, transparent election has no alternative. Maintaining the independence of democratic institutions like the election board, human rights commission and civil societies is quintessential.
The future of Ethiopia depends on how the system deals with the propensity for ethnic hegemony and the issue of historiography of the nation. If history has any relevance to the current day conversation, it should be to learn from the lessons of past mistakes.
Conflict Resolution and Peace Building
Ethiopia’s manufactured conflicts over regional boundaries remain horror story to hear. It is critical that the future stability of the nation should address these open and hidden conflicts. Diffusion of the border issues, and ethnic identities of peoples will remain to be the challenges.
The machinations of TPLF’s 27 years have bred suspicion and hate between regions making them apprehensive to encroachment by others. Reversing this narrative requires a relentless effort.
The threat posed by the unconstitutional “special force” of regions has become clear. The federal government will greatly be challenged with the continuation of these groups, at any point in time. It is greatly advised that the regions build trust and confidence in their resolution of any potential conflict over borders.
The post TPLF peace building and conflict resolution should also engage with people of the affected areas, with intent and purpose of building the trust of these people over the central government.
It is imperative that a constructive engagement of the people of various parts of the conflict areas be done, so that the political culture is nurtured. Engaging with the people of the conflict areas is an absolute necessity.
Governance and Rule of Law
The yearning for good governance is deep and large in Ethiopia. It is not because good governance is good in itself, but it is rather a means to prosperity, continuity of society, conflict prevention, and full ownership of people in their state of affairs.
The post TPLF state building should adhere to the three building blocks of good governance as being the rule of law, transparency, and accountability. These are pillars of good governance that embody partnerships between state and society, and among citizens— partnerships sustained not by good intentions alone but by lasting, converging incentives and strong institutions.
Prime Minister Abiy’s reform cannot be successful without good institutions. Institutions should be designed in such a way that public institutions will foster good governance by way of ensuring effective, equitable, honest policies and implementation, and access to information, both in terms of popular access to government information, and mutual access within government.
No enough emphasis can be made on the cruciality of an independent and effective judiciary, a free and competitive press, and a strong civil society (both an institution and an aspect of participation) will be essential partners in improving and sustaining institutions over the long run.
TPLF’s regime was a failure due to plethora of governance fault lines, one of them being the way public service was run. Clearly, the public service has been a playground for party manipulations and harassment of the professional work force. An essential lesson for the post TPLF governance should be to depoliticize the public service. The public service should be restructured and retuned with the principles of professionalism, excellence
and delivery. Making recruitments and promotion on the basis of merit is quintessential.
State policy making cultures should be guided by rules rather than discretion. Future governance principles should be founded on open and rational policy articulation.
Economic Policy Management
No political stability can be contemplated without redressing the economic malaise of the Ethiopian society. It is critical that the mismanagement in the economy is corrected. PM Abiy’s prime engagement should focus on weeding out the mistakes of the TPLF regime.
It is fundamental that high unemployment, galloping inflation and burgeoning debts should get the right set of policies, albeit being titanic in nature. The structural imbalance in the economy is manifest in large and growing trade deficit (as well as saving-investment gap), and low foreign exchange reserves.
The past regime’s weak delivery on incentivizing productive transformation is a big failure. Despite a repeated call for structural transformation that is led by industrial sector, the actual policy package has been the antithesis of meaningful economic development. It is very critical that the tradeable sectors (agriculture, mining and manufacturing) of the Ethiopian economy grow in relative size in comparison to the large non-tradeable sectors.
Tendencies to engage in short economic gains without adding value have been rampant in the country, that need to be the focus of the future policy making. Large rent seeking operations in the scale that has not been seen in the country’s history are on the high streets. Amassing wealth on speculations on urban land grab is beyond economic rationales and need to be curbed wisely.
More importantly, making any economic growth inclusive will be the challenge of the future policy makers. It is an absolute necessity that human development be given the attention it deserves.
The Ethiopia Herald December 20/2020
