Short story
The Battle of Benishangul is a computer – simulated water war between Ethiopia and Egypt. Of course, the Nile, the Blue Nile to be precise, is the big bone of contention. Egypt says, as Herodutus said before the birth of Christ, she is the “gift of the Nile” and cannot survive without the waters of the Nile. Ethiopia, on the other hand, argues that this may have been true in the past but not anymore, because Egypt can now desalinize the Red Sea and obtain fresh water and, besides, she has a huge amount of under-ground water enough to last for hundreds of years.
But Egypt is adamant about her longstanding position on the question of the Nile. Not a drop of water can be taken from the Nile as doing so would, in the eyes of the Egyptian people, be considered as an intolerable existential threat. Ethiopia, on her part, contends that as the source of the Nile, she has every right to an equitable share of the waters of the Nile and its tributaries. So, the respective positions of the two ancient civilizations appear to be irreconcilable and, what is more, both countries want to use the Nile as a weapon of war. Ethiopia, in her long history, has threatened to divert the Nile. Egypt has attempted to colonize Ethiopia and control the Nile at the source. They have fought several water wars before and Ethiopia has always prevailed, particularly at the battles of Gura and Gundet. Lately, Egypt’s subtle and secret strategy to weaponize the Nile revolves around the idea of denying Ethiopia the utilization of the waters of the Nile and subjecting her to food insecurity and undernourishment, thus creating a population stunted not only physically but mentally as well.
These basic facts and historical data are fed into the supercomputer which is supposed to process them meticulously and churn out plausible outcomes. Historically, Egypt abandoned the Palestinian cause through the Camp David agreement in order to guarantee that Ethiopia shall not use the Nile for economic development by dint of America’s superpower diktat. This strategy has been buttressed by Egypt’s proxy wars against Ethiopia through “unstunted, mercenary Ethiopian rebels and leaders.” So, Egypt’s President Sadat told his cabinet ministers at their regular meeting thus: “Our subtle and secret strategy of preventing Ethiopia from using the Nile for irrigation has subjected the vast majority of the Ethiopian population to undernourishment and therefore to physical and mental stunting. Repeated famines and widespread hunger may have caused the revolution against the monarchy, but as you know, our long-term aim is to cause the Ethiopian population to rise against Ethiopia itself through irrational desperation caused by mental stunting and retardation, which results from insufficient food intake and malnutrition. I will never allow Mengistu Hailemariam to use the Nile for irrigation as long as I am President of Egypt!” President Sadat’s docile cabinet
ministers expressed their strong support for the President’s commitment by a warm round of applause.
President Sadat’s successor, President Mubarak, convened his cabinet ministers in 1984 and started his briefing with a broad smile on his face: “Our subtle and secret strategy against Ethiopia is working. Did you see on TV the havoc undernourishment, malnutrition and hunger can wreak on the human body? What you did not see is the devastation they can inflict on the human
brain! The horrendous famine in Ethiopia has decimated the Ethiopian people not only physically but, more importantly, mentally as well. They will soon rise not only against Mengistu and his Derg cabal but also against the state of Ethiopia itself and in favour of the enemies of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi and Essayas Afeworki. In short, we Egyptians have outsmarted the Ethiopians in weaponzing the Nile! We have successfully denied them the nutrition which the Nile would have abundantly given them!”
Mubarak’s cabinet ministers gave him a standing ovation, patting each other’s backs. Meanwhile, President Mengistu Hailemariam made the grave error of not seeking rapprochement with the USA after the collapse of its erstwhile superpower sponsor, the Soviet Union. He made things worse by killing his best generals who were alleged to have participated in a military coup to oust him from power and also to have been bribed by the enemy. As President Mubarak had predicted, a large section of the Derg’s army and the Ethiopian population turned against Mengistu and began to sympathize with the anti-Ethiopia and pro-Egypt forces of the TPLF and EPLF. Consequently, the Derg’s army was routed at Afabet and later at Shire, and President Mengistu Hailemariam fled the country to seek asylum in Zimbabwe, where he still lives.
TPLF’s leader Meles Zenawi assumed power in Ethiopia and allowed Eritrea, including Assab, to break away and form a sovereign state, making Ethiopia in the process one of the largest land- locked countries in the world. He then proceeded, with hardly any significant popular opposition, to write a constitution that would eventually fragment, balkanize, and dismantle Ethiopia and erase the country from the face of the earth! Mental and Physical stunting caused
by nutritional deficiency as a result of not utilizing the Nile to produce enough food has worked its tricks as envisaged and planned by the leaders of Egypt.
Having Ethiopia down on her feet, the Egyptian people and the opposition leaders felt that it was then time to return to the Arab fold and make amends for their betrayal of the Palestinian cause. So, they elected Mohammed Morsi, the leader of the radical Muslim Brotherhood, as President of Egypt, which caused alarm and consternation in the US government, conjuring up frightening images of Egypt ganging up once again with other Arab and Muslim countries against Israel. So, US President Obama gave Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia a phone call and asked: “How are you? Mr. Prime Minister, Morsi’s election in Egypt is quite catastrophic for US’s Middle East foreign policy. Would you do me a favour? Just operationlize the US’s longstanding strategy of weaponizing the Nile if and when the need arises. That’s probably the only way we can scare the Egyptian people into rejecting and ousting Morsi. Place a cornerstone for a great dam on the Nile.”
Meles Zenawi replied: “Thank you, Mr. President, your request is in fact a godsend for me at a time when rabid opposition leaders here in Ethiopia are talking gibberish about colour and season(spring) revolutions to oust my regime. I will definitely respond positively to your timely request.”
So, the cornerstone for the Grand Renaissance Dam was laid and the US started using it to armtwist the Morsi government, which was eventually ousted by the current Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. With American foreign policy interests in Egypt restored once again, US bias in favour of Egypt has re-emerged. Meanwhile,
Meles Zenawi suddenly fell ill and died. True to Mubarak’s word, the Ethiopian population, showing clear manifestations of bad judgment, gave Meles Zenawi a state funeral never before seen in Ethiopia’s long history, even to this day and erected in his memory a magnificent mausoleum on hallowed ground. Hailemariam Desalegne succeeded the deceased Meles Zenawi and appeared ineffectual until he played a crucial role in paving the way for the ouster of the powerful TPLF cabal from the center of power and the assumption of the premiership by the incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
The computer –simulation scenario mentioned above is based on the fundamental premise that the interests of Ethiopia and Egypt as regards the Nile are irreconcilable. Ethiopia appears to want to use the Nile for hydropower generation only for tactical bargaining purposes, but it is bound to want to use it for irrigation as well in due course of time. Egypt knows this more than any other country, but it does not want to receive a drop less water from its sine qua non. So, it has decided that war is inevitable. It is now trying to buy time by appearing to want to negotiate. The computer –simulated epic saga of the Battle of Benishangul between Ethiopia and Egypt unfolds as follows:
The President of Egypt convenes a secret meeting of his top brass generals and informs them thus: “President Trump has tried all he can to convince Ethiopian leaders not to reduce the 100 percent water volume Egypt is getting now from the
Nile, but hardliners within the Ethiopian leadership seem to be adamant about their desire to use the Nile not only for hydropower generation but also eventually for irrigation as well. So, we have no choice but to destroy the dam before it is filled with water. I know our secret and subtle strategy of spawning not only physical but also mental stunting through nutritional deficiency by denying the Ethiopians the right to the use the Nile for food production has paid handsome dividends in fomenting pro-Egypt and anti-Ethiopian proxy war warlords in Ethiopian, including General Jafar, General Gudina and General Hagos. Besides, a large section of the Ethiopian Army, and indeed a considerable part of the Ethiopian population, who have been
successfully stunted are willing to be enslaved by petrodollar Arab countries as attested by uncontrollable influxes of such people to countries such as Saudi Arabia to do menial jobs under disgusting conditions. Hence, the prime objective of our “Operation Gift of the Nile” is to destroy the so-called Grand Renaissance Dam (before it is filled with water) with a missile or a long-haul bomber and secure the source of the Nile with our elite ground troops. So, get on the move immediately!”
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia who has received reliable prior information from domestic and international intelligence sources about Egypt’s “Operation Gift of the Nile”, has already had the Grand Renaissance Dam secretly three quarters filled with water, which was in fact the main reason why the President of Egypt ordered the double- pronged attack on Ethiopia. So, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia convenes, as is displayed in the computer simulation, his top- brass generals including General Arage, General Iskinder, General Gudina, General Jaffar and General Hagos and members of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiating team and gives the following orders as Commander-in –Chief of the Ethiopian Armed Forces:
“Due to serious intelligence lapses, Egyptian elite forces have already been deployed in and around Benishangul. They seem to have abandoned their plan to destroy the dam because it is now almost three-quarters full. Investigations are already underway into the intelligence lapses and why Egyptian troops have succeeded in making advances
deep into Ethiopian territory. However, we have no time now to consider that in any detail. We must operationalize “Gura II” without delay. Transmit defensive counter- attack orders immediately!”
Even as the Commander –in- Chief is issuing his orders, fierce ground battles in and around Benishangul are underway. The generals leave the secret military meeting by helicopter for their respective command posts. The Commander-in –Chief lowers his head, closes his eyes and rubs his forehead in anguish after seeing video footage of General Jaffar’s, General Gudina’s and General Hagos’s troops being completely routed by the Egyptian forces. But he does not believe what he sees when he opens his eyes again General Iskender’s and General Arage’s joint forces have struck the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with missiles and have breached its dykes and floodgates, unleashing tidal waves over ten meters high sweeping everybody and everything in their wake.
Before the screened computer simulation of the potential water war between Ethiopia and Egypt comes to an end, it highlights the two major ways in which the Nile could be weaponized. One is what the Egyptians have been utlitizing for so long, i.e. causing mental and physical stunting in Ethiopia by subjecting it to nutritional deficiency through denying the Ethiopians the right to utilize the Nile for food production, thereby fomenting civil war out of sheer mental retardation; the other way is what has won the Battle of Benishangul for the Ethiopians!
The Ethiopian Herald June 21, 2020
BY TEKLEBIRHAN GEBREMICHAEL
