(Assistant Professor & Director of International Affairs Office, Jimma University)
After the USA and World Bank brokered deal process between Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan on the first filling and operation of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) brought not result, the negotiation has resumed via video conference since June 9, 2020 with the USA, EU and South Africa attending with observer status. The three parties are presenting their points of views but the four point conditions set forth by Egypt and its way of communication to the outside world regarding the negotiation process needs a meticulous scrutiny at it may indicate the intended outcomes of the process in the eyes of Egypt.
Egypt requested Ethiopia to announce that it will not take any unilateral action in filling GERD’s reservoir until negotiations are complete and an agreement is reached. In my opinion, keeping the Dam out of operation is in the best interest of Egypt and the best way of achieving this aim is by procrastinating the negotiation process from bearing any fruit with the help of unrealistic demands untenable to Ethiopia. This implies that Ethiopia should take an unflinching position to the immediate filling and operation of the dam in line with its plan.
Egypt has also taken a strong stance that the document prepared by the United States and the World Bank, based on the three countries’ talks should be the major point of reference in the current discussion. Ethiopia, however, has already made it clear that the USA and WB brokered deal is unacceptable on the grounds of affecting its fundamental interests and the whole point of restarting new phase of negotiation is to resume the discussions anew and afresh to find out ways of addressing the most pressing and outstanding issues of interest to Ethiopia. Shying away from this crystal clear essence of the process is nothing more than attending the negotiation process to stand on the way of any meaningful outcome. It could also be an in effort to attract the attention of the USA and World Bank to put more diplomatic and other forms of pressure on Ethiopia to give in to the old proposal. Looking back to a failed proposal would serve only Egypt’s interest and Ethiopia should emphasize on a new proposal to address the outstanding issues that it correctly outlined as undermined by the previous unsuccessful negotiation process.
Egypt’s most popular media outlets and official press release of the government’s spokes person and Ministry of Water, Resources and Irrigation are trying to exhibit the negative sides of the negotiation process. All information sources, for obvious reason, are trying to feed to the general public and the international community that the ongoing negotiation process will come with no positive outcome. This is unlike Ethiopia and Sudan, who are consistently reporting the positive and constructive aspects of the negotiation process. Why is Egypt exhibiting the negative sides of the discussion and wanted to show to the world that each day of the discussion is unfruitful? It shows a sign of frustration and the inability to accept an eminent reality. Probably, it may again resort to take the matter to the international stage than seeking internal solutions to internal problems. But it is better to acknowledge the importance of peaceful negotiation through confidence.
Egypt is on the other hand demanding for the three observers to the negotiations to act as facilitators. Inviting facilitators and mediators to settle contradictory international matter is by no means a new phenomena and it is a well established international practice. But why Egypt is so obsessed with seeking external solutions to internal problems? It could probably be the case that, it is still contemplating on its traditional path of launching its propaganda machineries to bend the views and opinions of the facilitators/ mediators so that they will impose a course of action that fundamentally contradicts with the interest of Ethiopia and its people. Broadcasting deceitful information stating Ethiopia’s intransigent position becoming as an obstacle to the success of the negotiation process might mirror an opposite of the reality previewing Egypt’s intention to obstruct the process and put the blame on Ethiopia at the end. Hence, Ethiopia, besides relentlessly exerting efforts to succeed with
its talks with the other parties, should also effectively communicate to the international community, to show the true picture of the negotiation process.
Egypt needs the period of the negotiation to be limited only from June 9 to June 13, 2020 and expects to reach full agreement on filling and operating the GERD within such a limited period of time. It is clear to everybody that the negotiation is only on a starting phase and dealing with matters of utmost interest to the three nations. This could be very easily understood by any commentator or spectator of the issue at hand. Setting a deadline of June 13 to come up with a final and conclusive agreement among the three nations is tantamount to putting an additional obstacle to the negotiation process which is time constraint. It could be the case that, Egypt has already realized the final outcomes of the process having nothing to present to the negotiation table other than its old demands, with less probability to win the hearts and minds of Ethiopia. Hence, cutting the agreement short and transiting to other modes of pressurizing Ethiopia could be already loading.
There is absence of neither absurdity nor clarity to Ethiopia’s interest and demand in the negotiation process. It wants to fairly and equitably utilize its water resource of the Nile upholding existing international rules and standards. It is time to move beyond the rhetoric of significant harm to downstream states as there is no any tested experience of Ethiopia previously using the water along the Nile and these nations crumbled due to scarcity of water. Coming back to senses with feasible line of arguments will only help to reap positive outcomes from the negotiation process and the ball is still rolling in the hands of Egypt before it is too late.
The Ethiopian herald June 17,2020
BY ERMYAS ADMASU
