Keeping the peace in the Horn:

A collective challenge and a collective opportunity

Events in the Horn of Africa are currently turning in favor of peace, stability and

development. There is now a general rapprochement among the countries of the Horn that were at loggerheads for

many years in the past. A strategic shift in relationship among Horn countries is slowly becoming the new normal. Potential sources of conflicts are now slowly being replaced with opportunities for cooperation and economic development. Internal political instability is apparently giving way to dialogue and peaceful

settlement. A new consciousness, the consciousness that the future of Horn of Africa cannot be imagined without peace and stability, is taking roots in the region.

A paradigm shift is definitely taking place. The peaceful resolution of conflicts and a new kind entente cordiale is taking shape in various forms. The recent meeting of air force commanders of East African countries in Nairobi

highlighted the need for a common defense strategy in the Horn of Africa to prevent non-state actors like Al Shabab in Somalia and other international terror organizations from disturbing the peace of the region is

indeed a new timely tactical approach to the challenge.

The achievements of AMISOM or the African Mission in Somalia over

the last many years has indeed served as a good precedence for the need to coordinate military operations in beleaguered Somalia whose strategy is to defeat Al Shabab in its own home country. US intelligence and air support through drone operations to destroy the main hideouts of terrorist operatives might not have so far managed to fully neutralize the terrorist threat entirely. However, the US air support has proved a crucial and a aspect of the all-out offensive against the group. It has succeeded in preventing Al Shabab from expanding its operations and has placed it on a defensive footing.

Back in the 1970s and 1980s, there was growing talk in African political circles about the need for an African rapid intervention force in order to deal with conflicts within and among African countries. That was the era of military coups and counter-coups.

Foreign intervention was frequent and African countries were exposed to various external machinations and internal crises. However the idea of creating an African intervention force, however popular the idea

was, failed to materialize mainly due to lack of financial resources and the machinations of some external forces to prevent the idea from being realized. International relations during the Cold War had made Africa

captive of big power games and the role of the then Organization of African Unity (OAU) was greatly curtailed. Africans had not taken full control of their destiny.

Things changed for the better in the 1990s, with the end of the Cold War and the reversal of external influence in the continent. The need for democratic change across the continent had become the new aspiration. Military coups and illegitimate governments had ran out of steam and become extremely unpopular among Africans. Tyrants fell one after the other and popular awakening across Africa led to more or less civilian regimes with limited legitimacy. If there was one place in Africa where things resisted to change for the better and led to worse situations, it was Somalia that has so far defied all efforts to bring about normalization. The downfall of the old global order and the rise of international terrorism had worsened the situation acrossthe continent, including in Nigeria, Mali, Niger, and the Horn of Africa.

Africa welcomed the new millennium, with both hope and deep anxiety about its future. The two decades since the new millennium a considerable political shift has taken place in Africa at the center of which is the idea of democracy. The decision by the African Union (AU) not to recognize African governments that come to power through military coups was a decisive resolution that needed time and favorable situation to mature and bear fruit.

In the last two decades, the AU has been facing serious challenges in making democracy the central tenet of regime change in Africa.

It was a radically new approach in dealing with African politics and its implementation was bound to be difficult at the outset. Impunity, arbitrariness and violence had long become the main pattern in the fabrics of African politics. The culture of impunity, massive human rights violations and the myth of the ‘big man’ in politics had the upper hands. All this is now changing and changing fast.

Africa is trying to take its destiny in its own hands although external presence is growing in parallel. External intervention now is not mainly militaristic in nature. It is rather economic and Africa is becoming the new horizon of opportunity for big economic powers. This process has its own opportunities and challenges. In the meantime Africans are trying to put their house in order and take control of their future. One way of doing so is by playing a decisive role in the affairs of the continent. The joint fight against terrorism, illegitimacy and anti-democratic tendencies in individual African countries as well is slowly becoming the face of the new normal.

Military cooperation among African countries both bilaterally and regionally has so far remained a difficult enterprise. So has the fight for democracy in the continent. The AU has long been looking on helplessly as military coups were taking place in many places and unpopular regimes came to power. However, this had to end at some point if Africa was to welcome the new century with more confidence and determination.

The AU’s political inaction was best expressed during the 2011 Libyan crisis when the destiny of that country was being determined by NATO forces. Since then, the AU seems to have learnt an important lesson.

This has in turn strengthened its resolve to defend democratic processes across the continent and the best example is the role the AU played in brokering the recent deal between government and opposition in Sudan. This is bound to have a domino effect across the region although there are big challenges to be addressed yet.

The recent meeting of African Air Force commanders in Nairobi should therefore be regarded as part of Africa’s efforts tom take its future in its own hands not only in fighting terrorism but also in preventing impunity, dictatorial tendencies and illegitimate power grabs that had long remained a bane in African politics. Times are indeed changing slowly and changing decisively. This is indeed a time when keeping the peace in Africa is increasingly becoming both a collective challenge and a collective opportunity. A revival of them idea of an African rapid intervention force in a new form whenever peace and stability and democratic governance are threatened anywhere in the continent might not be a bad idea at this juncture.

The Ethiopian Herald Sunday September 8/2019

BY MULUGETA GUDETA