According to the latest demographic estimates for Ethiopia, the population of the country grows by more than 2.5 percent each year. Based on the current population estimates, this would mean that the country takes in close to three million mouths to feed each year. The amount of food harvest grows every year but certainly not in par with the rate of population growth in the country. A 2011 report by the UNFPA indicated that by 2050, Ethiopia will have a population of 174 million becoming the 9th largest population in the world. I personally think that by then the entire population of the country will certainly exceed the estimates made by the UNFPA.
Regarding the growth of population in Ethiopia, I can personally categorize that there are at least two schools of thought. Some regard land and population as a major asset of this country while others are pessimistic on the unregulated rate of population that is not in line with the economic growth of the country. I would like to say a few words on both trends of perception. In a way, for countries like Ethiopia, a larger population might help to create a potential labor force for various economic sectors particularly the agriculture sector. Economists divide labor force at least into three categories namely skilled, semi- skilled and none skilled.
As a major economic sector in which more than 80 per cent of the Ethiopian population is engaged, agricultural production is highly critical both for the internal consumption of the population and for exports but the major part of the population engaged in this sector is basically unskilled and not acquainted with modern and technologically advanced agriculture. With the establishment of industrial villages and relatively growing technological innovations in the country, the manufacturing sector is growing in a promising pace thanks to the relative growth in FDI. Here, lack of skilled and semi-skilled labor force has become a major challenge in the sector. I think that this indicates the need to engage in training the labor force that can man both the manufacturing and modern agriculture in the country.
On the other hand, the mindset in the rural parts of the country accepts population growth as a blessing and having no child or infertility is considered as a curse from God. There is also a cultural dimension which denotes a level of gender discrimination in which the husband decides whether his family would decide to have more children or not. Family planning has been conducted in this country at least for more than four decades. The only family planning institute in the country, Ethiopian Family Guidance Association has been doing its level best to handle the issue of family planning and related affairs.
It is worth mentioning that the government has done very little in the sector and has left the issue both to families as it is considered as a private matter on which every family can decide. Even those who were working on family planning have restricted themselves to the distribution of medicaments like contraceptives and medical treatments related to reproductive health ignoring the sociocultural and psychological side of the issue. In my opinion, population growth is an asset when it is properly utilized in a manner that it would foster economic growth which can further reduce the level of poverty in the country.
Ethiopia has a well-organized population policy but when it comes to practical implementation of the policy, no proper linkage is established between population growth and critical issues of ecosystem protection. I am not sure on the extent to which the issue of population is specifically considered and mainstreamed in all policy documents and strategies. Those who advocate for population control either do not have a practical and all-embracing strategy that is tailored for Ethiopia applicable in the country. Population growth and environmental protection are two key issues in the economic development of Ethiopia.
The larger majority of the Ethiopian population is still dependent on environmental resources for energy and even for food. The growth in population enforces more and deeper dependence on the environment resulting in environmental degradation and depletion which creates a cyclic environmental crisis in Ethiopia Unprecedented urbanization, recent huge internal displacements triggered by conflicts, deforestation and irresponsible tampering with forest resources in the major parks in the country are seriously affecting agriculture, tourism and other economic sectors in the country.
By the way, when we speak of environmental issues, we need to differentiate between the physical and social aspect of the subject. In the broader sense, the environment is not only where we live but also engage in economic activities to ensure our wellbeing. Pollution is major factor in the context of the health situation in Ethiopia. Both rural urban centers are polluted from two different sources including toxic gases from industries and exhaust pipes in the main. The nature and status of the environment affects the health condition and the livelihood of the populations.
Sensitivity to the issues of population is not only the prerogative the government. Families and concerned civil society organizations play a crucial role in regulating and advocating on the issues of population. Every country is endowed with limited natural resources. Despite their huge population, China and India have managed to turn their threat of population boom into a development opportunity for their respective countries. Both countries are fairly food secured and standout as two of the technologically developed countries of the world.
Surprisingly enough just like the government, research institutes and universities in Ethiopia have already sidelined researches on issues of population. The cumulative effects of population have not been adequately researched and none of the policy documents have given proper attention to the issue. It is erroneous to consider population issues from single and uniform perspective mainly because the population mixes and related variables in each regions of the country vary.
Population issues in pastoral and semi-pastoral areas of the country differ in context from that of sedentary agricultural populations. I have so far not touched upon the issue of the correlation between land and population growth. Land is a major indicator of social status and economic wellbeing. The uneven distribution of arable land had a greater effect both on population density and spatial distribution across the country. For instance, the average landholding in Wolayita Zone is nowadays far less than 0.5 ha while the density of population exceeds 800 persons per square kilometer.
Land has always been an issue of political contention but the arguments in this area rarely focus on its implication on population issues. Even at the present time in terms of occupation, more than 80 percent of Ethiopians eke their life on agriculture and the number of those engaged in the service sector, compared to that of agriculture is negligible. Population movement in Ethiopia is also quite telling.
The rural urban migration has continued to grow due to various factors including rural poverty and climate change triggered drought and the resultant food shortage. Conflict induced displacement is another recent factor that is affecting both the quality of life and psychological makeup of those affected by the displacement. Population mobility is also being affected by the prevalence of hate politics in various parts of the country.
The ‘we and they’ mind set is also negatively affecting not only constitutionally provided mobility of population but the social fabric that had bonded the peoples of Ethiopia. The population of this country is growing on alarming proportions and all concerned should do their part in accommodating the population boom.
The Ethiopian Herald May 22/ 2019
BY SOLOMON DIBABA
