
No matter what the reasons are, the process of endorsement of the two draconian bills, HR 6600 and S3199 is now suspended. This is not the first time these two bills are put on hold since their first initiation.According to sources, the senators and congress men intended to write the bills 6 months ago. But they suspended it when they understood that the TPLF forces are advancing towards the northern Shewa approximately 100 kilo meters away from the capital.
The writing process resumed when the terrorist forces were beaten by the Ethiopian forces and retreated to Tigray. They even rushed the bills to reach to the floor of both the congress and the senate simultaneously.
Ethiopia is located in the horn of Africa which makes her vulnerable to the influence of the red sea and the Nile water politics. USA is a super power country which has its own political interest that goes as far as dominating the region. But currently the emerging powers such as China and Turkey are scrambling to create their own sphere of influence and have already established their naval base both in Djibouti and Somalia. The US perceived them as potential threats to its interest. Therefore, it doesn’t want regime which goes against its interest in the region.
Hence, it is fair to say that the introduction of the above mentioned draft bills might intend to create regime that is loyal to the US interest.
When we come to the Nile politics historically Egypt perceived Ethiopia as foe because it is located in the place where the Abay River in which the main source of the Nile water originates.
Currently Egypt is striving to force Ethiopia to sign a binding agreement with regard to the utilization of the Nile water which is in vein. It also supports some insurgents which surfaced themselves in Benishangul–Gumuz region which tried to disrupt the construction of the GERD.
In addition both TPLF and Egyptian employed lobbyists are closely following up the draft bills floored to both the lower and upper houses of the USA.
The modern history of the world indicates that no government was toppled by economic sanction. More than 43 countries have come across sanctions but no government was toppled down.North Korea, Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and other countries can be mentioned as the case in point.In North Korea government continued without interruption for the last 70 years and transferring presidency to the a third or fourth generation. Had the sanction brought an impact the continuity of the generational presidency would have been interrupted.While the Zimbabwe currency is inflated 200 percent against the US Dollar due to the economic sanction Mugabe stayed on power for more than three decades.
However, even though governments withstood sanctions imposed by the USA, the ordinary citizens are suffering a great deal. One can imagine the impact of economic sanction by comparing the living standard of South Koreans with North Koreans. While the first enjoys the highest living standard in the world, the latter still suffers from food insecurity and political repression. Iran is one of the leading oil exporting countries in the world but due to the sanction the pace of its economic growth is curtailed.
In the case of Ethiopia if the HR 6600 and S3199 endorsed by the majority vote in the US congress and senate in the first place the war affected regions such as Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions are critically harmed. Because the health, education, telephone roads and infrastructures are already destroyed by the war.
The nation Development endeavor also will be crippled and ultimately the poor segment of the society will critically suffer from the sanction.
Due to ignorance and denial of the reality on the ground some Ethiopians here locally and in diaspora express their support to the bills as if it brings peace and stability in Ethiopia and advance democracy. But the bills would rather reduce the country in to conflict because of their ill motives.
Ethiopian diaspora and other friends of Ethiopia have still continued campaigns to block the two bills from endorsement in both houses.
The government has tried its level best that members of the congress and the senate to vote against the bills. In addition, it gave response to 70 percent of the demands requested in the bills. The state department of the USA which is part of the executive branch of the government expressed its happiness for the release of TPLF officials and some political prisoners and regarded the measures as helpful to bring national consensus in the country.
It also praised the unilateral cease fire taken by the government in order to dispatch humanitarian aid to Tigray in land. The expansion of the flight schedule from Addis to Mekele was also appreciated.
Such measures and the pressure which is going on in the US by diaspora Ethiopians hopefully bring positive out come.
Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald
BY ABEBE WOLDEGIORGIS
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD FRIDAY 8 APRIL 2022