Election 2021in Ethiopia is proceeding without much of the political fanfare that accompanied such events in the past. A notable absence from this year’s election campaign is perhaps the fiery rhetoric by campaign speakers who could electrify their constituencies in order to win them over to their sides. Although there are no campaign rallies due to the pandemic, the candidates could nevertheless use the media to make their points. Unfortunately, there is a visible shortage of candidates who could impress their followers and sell their election agendas by winning their hearts and minds.
According to some opinions expressed in the media by observers of the election process, this year’s election campaign was a low-profile affair as compared to election 2005 for instance. During a recent ETV show, a speaker suggested that the main leaders of the contesting parties should join the media debates so that electors could be thrilled and public interest could be galvanized. Others pointed at the current situation that is loaded with so many challenges that might have robbed public interest in the electoral process.
Public speaking is a respected academic exercise and there are many schools and colleges in the West that teach promising political leaders the art of oratory. During elections, powerful campaign speakers have the ability and the skills to turn events to their favor or contest the elections with fervor. This is usually done in order to attract the attentions of prospective electors who gather in great numbers to listen to their favorite candidates. The US is a good example of this style of campaign oratory and public politicking well before the global pandemic spoilt the show. The presidential system of campaigning usually allows for much speechifying.
Former President Barak Obama’s first time election more than twelve years ago brought to the public attention a young presidential candidate who spat fire and provided energy plus substance to his electoral campaign that ended in his landslide victory and his reelection four years later. Obama was indeed a powerful orator who could move and shake millions of voters with his wit, skills and amazing knowledge of American politics. Almost all-American presidents were fantastic speakers even when they were caricatured and demonized by hostile media as it was the case with Donald Trump.
Perhaps presidential elections with single candidates representing their respective contesting parties are more prone to charisma, oratory and debating skills. The emergence of political orators is almost impossible in an electoral system that gives more room for parties than individuals who could not shine as much as presidential candidates. Electoral systems determine the kind of election campaigns relevant to specific situations.
In an electoral system like ours, ordinary candidates are more visible than the top leaders during electoral debates although this tradition tends to give less visibility to top leaders of the contesting parties. It should rather be the other way round. The leaders of all the parties should take part in the debates so that the process could be galvanized with their campaign promises and mutual criticisms of their respective platforms. In Ethiopia, the task of changing the electoral system is a long and complex one requiring the approval of the house of representatives or parliament which is the highest legislative authority.
We are now only days away from the official voting day in this year’s national election in Ethiopia that was delayed several times. The first delay was caused by the pandemic that made it impossible for people to gather at political rallies or wait in long queues during the voting day. Fear or panic was then the order of the day and people were mostly more concerned about their safety than their political rights. Phobia ruled the day as little was known about the pandemic. The decision to postpone the ballot came as a result of intense deliberations by medical as well as legal experts directly or indirectly concerned with the pandemic and people’s safety.
The second delay came rather later and was caused by things like low turnout in voter registration and safety concerns in some parts of the country. There was also the law enforcement operations against the TPLF renegade clique that was trying to create chaos ahead of the ballots, according to officials sources. This is also confirmed by the clique itself that admitted resorting to the act of sabotage against the northern command as a “preemptive strike” ahead of an all-out war between the TPLF and the federal forces. You cannot hold elections in the middle of a war and delaying the ballots was thus justified on these and other grounds.
So far, the registration of candidates, the voter registration and the political debates among the parties are going on well despite the absence of some opposition parties that boycotted the ballots or withdrew from the process. There is also a certain uneasy calm which might be due to voters’ skepticism and concern about what the election will bring about. There is big public concern with the post-election process as memories of past elections and the acts of violence that accompanied them are still fresh in people’s minds. Election 2005 is a good example of what could happen when elections went wrong.
This year’s election is different from the past ones for many reasons. In the past, both the parties and the voters had no experience or culture of electing their leaders in open ballots. The so-called elections for the lower house of parliament that took place during the time of Emperor Haile Selassie were largely spontaneous exercises that were conducted without challenging the status quo or its policies. It was a kind of democracy from above based on imperial goodwill. Thus, it lacked popularity, legitimacy as well as authenticity.
The Derg elections were organized along communist lines and it was the business of the then ruling workers party to choose its candidates, all of them party members, and select the best ones among them. The voters were called at the end of the process to express their nominal consent by giving their votes to candidates they did not know even remotely while living in the same neighborhoods. Communist-style elections were strictly controlled and aimed at securing continuity by avoiding the risk of political change.
The EPRDF which was also led by a self-proclaimed vanguard party and similar ideology, the so-called MLLT (Marxist-Leninist League Tigray) copied proto-communist election models and repeated what the Derg had started. The difference between the two was that there was not a single opposition party during the Derg rule while the EPRDF faced a number of disparate and weak opposition parties that claimed state power or a share of the big pie. Comparatively speaking, the EPRDF, and its core leadership which was always monopolized by the TPLF clique, had no reason to make the elections a one-party business. It could have organized a relatively open and participatory electoral process although the outcomes could not be risk free as it was the case in 2005.
We are now standing at the crossroads in Ethiopian party politics that has not a long history. This history dates back to the post revolution decades and is barely four decades old. Even political parties that are a hundred or more years old face difficulties in applying the true tenets of democracy and universal suffrage. There is no perfect model of democracy anywhere in the world. The US used to boast about being the perfect model of democratic elections but this has proved a sham during recent ballots as presidential candidates who allegedly resorted to some of the dirties tricks to place themselves ahead of their contenders.
Fiery speakers may be game changers during elections. Yet, substance is more important than rhetoric or campaign promises. There were many orators in African elections who failed to deliver when they came to power. Orators rather give out more glamour and lighter than substance to the process. As a rule, they are quickly extinguished when the wind of change sweeps everything along its trail. Those who have substance tend to prevail.
Many African countries have tried to adopt democratic principles to conduct their elections that were modeled on the American, British, French or on any other Western country. These models have often failed to respond properly to African realties and degenerated into tribal or ethnic politicking, leading to unnecessary bloodsheds and destructions. As Ethiopia’s modern political history is different from the majority of African countries, its electoral and party politics could only be shaped by its peculiarities.
Ethiopia had not only a modicum of electoral history that was nipped in the bud, but also the opportunity to learn from its past history in order to shape its own electoral model based on a symbiosis of time-tested traditional value systems and modern democratic ideas. Regrettably, the educated elites have so far failed to articulate a genuinely functional democratic or electoral tradition. They cannot afford to fail now that history has given them another chance to rise to the occasion. What is needed now is not fiery speechmaking but ideas with real substance that would effectively change Ethiopia’s electoral tradition so much so that a return to the dark days of authoritarianism would be impossible.
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
The Ethiopian Herald June 10/2021
