BY DARGIE KAHSAY
Hali Yahya is a Sudanese journalist. Currently, he is a correspondent for Turkish based media, TRT. Before his current duty, he served as a reporter for different private and public media organizations in Sudan. He was a reporter for Radio Sudan and correspondent of Press Media in the Sudanese Embassy.
Also, Hali has served in African Union on contract basis and Arab League as translator and communicator. In these multidimensional experiences, he served for over 10 years and he is actively following the developments of the Eastern African socio-economic and political changes.
The Ethiopian Herald had a short stay with Hali to discuss Ethiopia’s internal political situation, the Ethio-Sudan border crises, the GERD issues and Egypt-Sudan’s current diplomatic developments. Excerpts:
How do you see Ethiopian politics before the political change in 2018?
Ethiopia was in a critical political crisis when Prime Minister Abiy came to power in April 2018, mainly from 2016 to 2018. Ethiopia was in a serious problem due to the ethnic division by the former system. Ethiopia faced critical challenges in administration, corruption, political, social and economic aspects.
The continuous unrest and conflicts also complicated the country’s political situation. The crises and challenges originated from the political system exercised by the former administration and its structures.
There was no political and press freedom. The political system excluded all political actors including the affiliate parties of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Front’s (EPRDF). EPRDF monopolized all political and economic activities. Except for four regional states, the rest had no chance to participate in the country’s national agenda since the front excluded them as mere affiliates.
So, the political system was both ignorant and dictatorial. Unemployment and the unfair distribution of resources had reached a disastrous level. The real source for all these political problems was the way that ethnic federalism was implemented.
The system was the cause of all political and economic crises. Everything was linked to ethnicity and the system that was formed. Anyways, when PM Abiy came to power in 2018, Ethiopia was under a multidimensional political turmoil and critical situation.
How do you evaluate PM Abiy’s activities during the past three years? Is there any concrete change in solving the crises the country faced before?
As I said earlier, PM Abiy received serious challenges economically, politically and security-wise. The political and economic crises were deep and needs urgent but also research-based solutions.
Immediately, PM Dr Abiy declared political and economic reforms. The fast and continuous actions of the Prime Minister scores fruitful changes in stabilizing the country. Since Dr Abiy understands the deep-rooted political problem, he calls all political actors at home and abroad to participate in their country’s politics actively. He opens all blocked media outlets.
Shortly, PM Abiy changes the atmosphere from turmoil to hope and spirit. This changes a lot of things and invites all political actors abroad to enter their country. A lot of proclamations were amended. These efforts changed the former situation in a short period and mobilize the public to promote peace and unity.
Still, some challenges emanate from the past administration and its system. A political crisis is not easy to solve in a day. It needs continuous and collective efforts of political actors and the mass. Still, conflicts are happening here and there and there were internal displacements.
Following the reform in 2018, economic problems, displacements and conflicts had unfolded. How do you see the new administration’s efforts and actions to manage these crises?
There were unrests and internal displacements following the unrests here and there. But, the sources of the unrest were intentionally happened by the support and finance of the former political leaders using its old system. This was the old fashion of African political tradition, disturbing the mass to disturb the political regime.
Handling such politically motivated crises needs political wisdom and patience. By understanding the complicated situation, the government invests a lot of peaceful mechanisms by mobilizing elders, religious father and other peaceful mechanisms. The Prime Minister has also discussed almost with the people of all states. The PM has substituted administrators and deployed security forces to manage the crises.
To some extent, there were also external interventions to disturb Ethiopia as we see in Benishangul Gumuz concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). With the continuous efforts of the government and commitment of the security forces, almost all conflicts are under control. Not only that, the public is now aware of the origin and source of the conflicts since conflicts are happening without any justifiable reason.
On the other hand, to solve the economic problems, Abiy’s government takes fruitful actions and scores necessary outcomes. The reforms on the economy stabilize the macroeconomy.
In easing doing business, privatization, solving the critical problem of unemployment and attentions giving to the agriculture and financial sector scores fruitful outcomes in this regard and stabilizes the country’s economy as well. The reform also tries to manage corruption which was a serious challenge for the country’s economy and the unfair distribution.
How do you see the current regional politics of the Horn of Africa? As you know this region is known for its conspiracy politics. Is there any development especially following the coming to power of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed? Does Abiy’s efforts to strengthen the region’s integration changing the old tradition?
Prime Minister Abiy gives equal attention to internal and regional issues when he came to power. He understands internal development has a direct linkage with the regional situation. Due to this philosophy of the Prime Minister that, internal peace and development are unthinkable without regional peace and development, he invests a lot to stabilize the region and to change the traditional political atmosphere of the Horn of Africa and largely to the continent.
This Ethiopia’s efforts bring new developments in strengthening the regional integration and by solving the old conspiracy against each-other among the countries of the region.
But, the Horn of Africa region’s politics is too complex with many external actors. Hence, to achieve the target goal of cooperation and mutual development in the region, Ethiopia’s efforts and initiatives should be capitalized by other states and Inter Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) should take the imitative.
Dr Abiy invests a lot not only to keep Ethiopia’s friendly relations with its neighbors but also the regional countries relations with each other.
But, in my perspective, the role of IGAD is too weak than at any time. Ethiopia worked to restore peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, between Djibouti and Eritrea, Kenya and Somalia and mediated Sudan’s political differences. During these movements, the role of IGAD was too weak and in some situations, the regional institution was an observer.
Hence, to achieve permanent regional cooperation, development and stable political environment and peace, the activities of Ethiopia should be institutionalized and IGAD should take the initiative by strengthening its role.
PM Abiy mediated Sudan’s politicians’ differences in 2018. During the event in Khartoum, a journalist called PM Abiy “The Peace Prophet”. That peace process saved Sudan from political turmoil and to practice a smooth political transition.
As I said earlier, though Prime Minister Abiy’s efforts bring new developments in the region, it needs collective effort of all countries political actors and strong regional institutions to keep peace and development
of the Eastern Africa region. The Horn of Africa is a strategic region and always under the pressure of external powers. It needs a strong joint commitment of all countries of the region to manage the external influence and to believe in their regional cooperation by avoiding the old conspiracy and external interferences.
In this regard, IGAD should also equally give attention to economic development and peace and security issues. Up to now, IGAD’s agenda is peace and security though its establishment was mainly for regional economic cooperation and development. Hence, parallel to its peace and security agenda, IGAD should give serious attention to the economic development and cooperation of the region.
Ethiopia says GERD is useful for the people of Sudan. As a Sudanese citizen and as you know Sudan well, Does GERD have a benefit for the people of Sudan?
Absolutely! GERD’s benefit for Sudan is undetermined and irreplaceable. Even it benefits more for Sudan than Ethiopia. Sudan’s scientists reached a final decision that GERD is a blessing for Sudan.
First, Sudan’s agricultural productivity per year is once or twice. But, after the completion of GERD, Sudan’s agricultural production can become three to four-times per year due to the manageable water it received from the GERD. This has a huge impact to boost productivity and this boosts the country’s economic development. GERD will help Sudan to use the Nile water properly.
Secondly, GERD saves Sudan from an unexpected flood. Sudan loses billions of dollars per year due to the overflow of Nile water. Hence, GERD will save Sudan from the lives and material lost due to the flood and Sudan gets well-managed water flow throughout the year.
Thirdly, the energy production of Roseires Dam will become boosted and Sudan gets more electricity. Sudan will get cheap access to electricity. Mainly the Eastern part of Sudan will get full and cheap energy access following the completion of GERD.
Over 90 per cent of Sudanese scholars know the advantage of GERD for Sudan and supported its completion. Ethiopia and Sudan have reached an agreement on more than 95 per cent on GERD, the remaining points are less than five per cent.
Sudan’s stance on GERD is the need to have a formal agreement to exchange information about the filling process to develop full confidence.
Do you believe that Egypt’s claims over GERD emanates from real water shortage threats and does it really worry about equitable utilization of water resource?
Never! Egypt’s claim is not all about water shortage threat and equitable utilization of water. Egypt knows and its scientists researched that GERD cannot minimize the water flow of the Nile. Its question is also not all about equitable utilization. If you ask Egyptians “Where is Ethiopia’s share of Nile water for which it contributes 86 per cent?” they will have no answer.
Egypt’s concern is no shortage of water due to GERD. Its real concern is that GERD will change the geopolitics of the region by boosting Ethiopia’s economic development and by integrating the region.
Strong, powerful and developed Ethiopia is Egypt’s phobia. Egypt does not wish to see Ethiopia’s development and weakening Ethiopia has become part of their life blood. Sudan’s questions on GERD are a few technical issues. But, Egypt’s question is neither a technical nor water shortage, it is all about power hegemony.
Egypt has never had scientific or technical justification to see GERD as a threat to its security or water shortage. By the way, if GERD is completed, Sudan will use more water from the Nile and Egypt does not want to see Sudan use more water. For Egypt, Sudan’s water share from the Nile is only 18 billion cubic meters per year.
Does the Sudanese aggression have a linkage with GERD? Is it a borde dispute? How do you see Ethiopia’s patience to solve the border issue with Sudan peacefully?
In the first place, the border issue was there for over 100 years. Second, Sudan is a huge country and there is no shortage of land in Sudan. Thirdly, there was no urgent reason to intensify the border issue at this time.
The only issue behind the border crises between Ethiopia and Sudan is to complicate the GERD negotiation. Behind this crisis, it is clear, there is Egypt. No doubt at all. Except for this, there is no reason to take military action against Ethiopia by Sudan.
If Sudan has a real question of land, first Sudan may ask to have Halayeb and Shelatin invaded by Egypt recently. These areas have a huge Gold resource and other minerals.
Hence, if Sudan’s real question is all about land, it may start to take-back these areas of its land. So, the border tension between Sudan and Ethiopia is not a real border issue, it is to disturb GERD’s peaceful negotiation and the agenda comes from Egypt.
The way Ethiopia is handling the issue is very interesting. Ethiopia’s peaceful stance is helpful to cut the agenda of a third party on the issue and to preserve the historic and strong diplomatic friendship of Ethiopia and Sudan. The only solution for the border issue is the way that Ethiopia is standing and I hope Sudan will accept Ethiopia’s peaceful position.
What is the attitude of the Sudanese people towards Ethiopia currently? Do you think Ethiopia and Sudan border tension lead to war?
Ethiopia is a source of water and peace for Sudan. Every Sudanese knows this. Almost 95 per cent of the people of Sudan towards Ethiopia have a bright attitude. No Sudanese wants war with Ethiopia. Everyone knows both countries have an inseparable destiny. The destructive wars Sudan faced in its history are more than enough. Every Sudanese knows this. The same to Ethiopia, war is not an option. So, for me, since the people of Sudan never support it, I don’t think so the tension will escalate to war. But, to solve the problem of the border issue, it is necessary to implement strategic plans.
How do you see the current diplomatic relations between Egypt and Sudan?
It’s temporary. It’s a temporary alliance to pressurize Ethiopia, which the agenda came from Egypt. This agenda has two aims, to stabilize their internal political problems by diverting the internal agendas and to complicate GERD negotiation. Currently, both Sudan and Egypt are facing critical political differences. Especially, Egypt is facing critical internal differences.
Does Egypt and Sudan’s agreement to protect Sudan’s national interest?
Egypt is always practicing its diplomacy at the cost of Sudan’s national interest. The relation between Egypt and Sudan is always zero-sum-game traditional diplomacy. It is always to protect Egypt’s national interest. You can refer to history. Egypt’s diplomacy with Sudan does not know the “give and take” principle of Diplomacy. It is to take all.
When Egypt built the Aswan Dam, Sudan lost three million Date trees, over 500 thousand people were displaced and 27 villages were covered by the dam’s water reservoir. Egypt never paid compensation for all this. Egypt’s eyes are on Sudan’s land, always.
Some argue that Egypt always works to prevent a popularly elected government in Sudan. How do you see this?
By the way, a country keeps information about its diplomatic relation with another country through its foreign affairs ministry or office. But Egypt handles information about its relation with Sudan not through the foreign affairs ministry, but through the intelligence office.
This means, Egypt’s attitude towards Sudan is always under the shadow of intelligence and the relationship is based on distrust.
Not only that, any coup attempt in Sudan is plotted in Egypt. Starting from the era of Nubian, all coup d’état attempts came from Egypt. Still, it continues. Also, if any new government in Sudan refuses to discharge Egypt’s agenda, Egypt works day-and-night to destabilize Sudan and to shake the power of that government.
Egypt’s President Al Sisi faced protest by Sudanese youth during his recent visit to Khartoum. What was the intention behind the youths protest against him?
The people of Sudan hate him. Such public anger and protest during a leader’s official visit to another country is unprecedented. This is a clear message. They said, “He comes to fully control Sudan.” He stayed on for hours in Sudan and left the country as he lost confidence.
Finally I would like to give a chance if there is anything more you would like to say.
Ethiopia should focus on its agenda. It should fill its second round filling without the consent of the downstream countries, whether they agree or not. It should focus on its business. Also, Ethiopia should not always stand with the defending position. It should set agenda. Egypt is always setting agenda using its media. On the GERD issue, Ethiopia should continue its activities as usual. I love Sudan and I know GERD never affects Sudan’s interest and that is why I supported the completion of GERD. Ethiopia is the origin of peace and water for Sudan.
Thank You!
It’s my pleasure!
The Ethiopian Herald March 13/2021
