Understanding foes in South Sudan could be quite an issue one grapples with. Despite what has been delivered after a tedious peace deal among the parties involved in the conflict it seems not all are yet fully pleased about who they became. For instance, very recently Mabior Garang de Mabior, who is the son of the republic’s founding leader John Garang, has resigned and accused President Salva Kiir of having little interest in implementing the 2018 peace agreement. Mabior was appointed Deputy Interior Minister as part of the power sharing deal. Few days earlier to that President Kiir sacked the Army Chief General Jok Riak without explanation apart from citing his constitutional powers to appoint and remove army officials.
Despite the General’s note on his social media handle that he is now ‘the most relieved, happiest and a normal citizen of the country,’ however there is a fear that sacking of army officers in the past have created new rebels. Since 2013, President Kiir has changed military chiefs five times, among whom Paul Malong was fired in 2017 and he formed the South Sudan United Front while his former deputy Thomas Cirillo also formed a rebel group. Both have not signed on the peace deal.
The demand of the people of South Sudan for the right of self-determination came through forty years of war in the Sudan. The leaders of independence movement, including Kiir and Machar have come under common agenda that the people of South Sudan have been denied their right attributed to neglect, persecution and underdevelopment by the different regimes that ruled the Sudan since its constitution as a state. And independence was overwhelmingly supported by the people of South Sudan with a hope of real change.
The South Sudan civil war broke out in December 2013 following a political struggle between Kiir and Machar within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The situation created mutiny within the army as those from the Nuer ethnic group loyal to Machar fought against those from the Dinka ethnic group loyal to President Kiir, and that led to Machar’s removal as vice president. Since then hundreds of thousands people have been killed, and it is estimated, more than four million people have been internally displaced or fled to neighboring countries.
Rocked by subsequent violations to a series of cease-fires negotiations, in 2018 regional and international pressure was intensified on President Kiir and opposition leader Machar to reach an agreement to end the conflict. This includes targeted sanctions from the United States and a UN arms embargo. However today, the two are being accused of failing to agree on how to govern regional states. Reports on the ground claim the continuation of inter-communal fighting across regions killing hundreds and displacing tens of thousands. The priority being the protection of civilians since the outbreak of the conflict, UN experts and rights groups say, armed factions have targeted civilians along ethnic lines, committed rape, and sexual violence, destroyed property and looted villages, and recruited children into their ranks.
There is also a call to UN Security Council to renew arms embargo imposed in 2018 while neighboring countries are being accused of failing to comply with it by blatantly sending weapons to the country, further threatened the fragile peace deal. According to the UN Panel of Experts on South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda are to be blamed for this.
With regards to the real rivals and their ultimate representations experts have a different take saying the leadership in Juba and rebel groups in the crisis are not the legitimate and de jure representatives of the people of South Sudan. According to Mehari Taddele (PhD), the two parties should not even be considered as the de facto legitimacy bearers. Recognizing dialogue between the current two SPLM factions led by President Kiir and Machar for the SPLM/A-In Opposition
opposition leader Machar to reach an agreement to end the conflict. This includes targeted sanctions from the United States and a UN arms embargo. However today, the two are being accused of failing to agree on how to govern regional states. Reports on the ground claim the continuation of inter-communal fighting across regions killing hundreds and displacing tens of thousands. The priority being the protection of civilians since the outbreak of the conflict, UN experts and rights groups say, armed factions have targeted civilians along ethnic lines, committed rape, and sexual violence, destroyed property and looted villages, and recruited children into their ranks. There is also a call to UN Security Council to renew arms embargo imposed in 2018 while neighboring countries are being accused of failing to comply with it by blatantly sending weapons to the country, further threatened the fragile peace deal. According to the UN Panel of Experts on South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda are to be blamed for this. With regards to the real rivals and their ultimate representations experts have a different take saying the leadership in Juba and rebel groups in the crisis are not the legitimate and de jure representatives of the people of South Sudan. According to Mehari Taddele (PhD), the two parties should not even be considered as the de facto legitimacy bearers. Recognizing dialogue between the current two SPLM factions led by President Kiir and Machar for the SPLM/A-In Opposition will not solve the problem sustainably, the inclusive dialogue among all forces in South Sudan that can address major national questions within and outside of SPLM is in order, said Dr. Mehari in a study – “Potential Causes, Consequences of South Sudan becoming a “Failed State”.
South Sudan is entrapped into recurrent failure even after a unity government was formed in February 2020. Desperate fighters have had spent heart wrenching time over the years serving an unclear purposes without striking compromise. Thus the ferocity of South Sudan to a better East Africa seems evident. Had South Sudanese rivals start to rebuild the oil reach nation they craved for before independence, regional countries like Ethiopia could have gained much in realizing their integral development aspirations.
The failure of South Sudan is a threat to the regional peace eventually affecting the region’s aspiration towards development. At this time there may be no absolute optimism about stability among rivals in south Sudan and because any trouble right up against the border become a concern for neighbors as factions troubles could spilled over anytime.
Furthermore, the unstable South Sudan could serve as a safe haven for outside forces. This has been witnessed in Somalia’s failed statehood that have contributed to its service as sanctuary for extremist groups take control of lands and eventually pause regional security threat.
At last, South Sudan refutes a recent reports circulated on social media that claim its agreement with Egypt to give a military base in Pagak, a region bordering Ethiopia, officially debunking rumors as false allegations and propaganda launched by the enemies of peace in the country, in order to disturb its relations with neighboring countries and the entire region. Meanwhile, as concerns entailing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam continue to be a point of contention between Ethiopia and Egypt such military issues involving South Sudan could signal a potential source of dispute so long as peace remain fragile in Juba.
The Ethiopian herald June 9,2020
BY KIRAM TADESSE
