Over the last three or more months, the news of many deaths around the world has tremendously caught our attention. There is a speculation that a total of 90,000 Americans may die in May, not in August, but sometimes in the near future, as per news cast. When we look at the death count in twenty four hours, thousands of people tragically die just like that. It is a shocking incidence. Of all the countries, the United States being epicenter of the virus on the globe is rather intriguing. What can we make of these numbers? There are lots of different models out there. Just over a month ago, the same model tragically estimate 90 thousand people may die from this in the United States alone. The high counts have been all over ever since the inception of pandemic. There are certain things happening that still drive the numbers up. The pick, the concern of the white, house owing to their negligence, is not just flattening the curve as it has gone up;. That has got a lot of tension. There are a lot of modelers, who have been talked to, always caution the governments and the people that the situation could be more devastating unless drastic measures are taken worldwide.
All these taken into consideration, the impact of stay home is conspicuously noticed. It is not a question of model. There are a lot of people dying every day. It is not exponential growth in the number of death anymore; it is people whose life is at risk or dying. Evidently in states where the lockdown is eased, the number of cases and deaths is back to a threatening state. The irony of it that some leaders in USA do not seem concerned about the toll the pandemic is taking and to make the matter worse by suggesting hydrochloroquine and detergents as a treatment for corona virus infection. It sounds madness to a sane mind. Why is it that this death count has spiked to such a height? This is not about case or death counts but it is about humans and individuals who unfortunately are dying away many times from their families which is one really cruel characteristic of this particular epidemic.
The models are all over the place in part because they are expressing a range of possibilities. Different groups are putting different things into the models and that it comes back to the point that we still do not have the precise estimate that we really need to learn the accurate model. So, one great example is what is the fatality rate or the death rate? If you are a thirty-five year old, what is the likelihood in the house you are going to die? If one is seventyfive, what is the likelihood? We really do not know, and there has been a lot of debate about this. People are saying it is less than point one percent, other people are saying it is one percent. So until we have a good handle on that it is very hard to know what is going to happen.
The death rate that is being shown is hopefully leveling off because it is lagging about two weeks behind the actual presentation rate of the illness. We should bear in mind that and death rates always reflect something that happened in the past, it is like looking back. So, we really do not know what exactly is going to happen next.
Nevertheless, it is very encouraging that if it leveled out,I may say, the rate of new infections that surpasses the wave of death is also leveling out. Yet, because of the hugely different social distancing interventions across the country, we are really looking at a series of micro epidemics here and there. Different social distancing implementation in many countries, for instance, the vice president of the United States is quite staggering. It is so striking he was the only person in the room (clinic) without wearing a mask as we saw it on CNN.
The drama was that the doctors were wearing masks, the patients were wearing masks; he was obviously within six feet of the people; he was close enough to elbow of them. It is the clinic’s policy to wear masks and they had tweeted out. Obviously, that they had told the vice president or his staff about the danger of not wearing mask in that circumstance. So, the idea that the vice president did not think he needed to wear a mask in fact is absurd. The reason why he did not need to wear a mask was because he had been tested negative.
So, what about that logic? Obviously, it is a faulty logic. He should have worn a mask, absolutely as there were patients around. First of all, we should set an example to others. After all we are going through tough time. It is the hospital’s policy and it was important that they should have enforced the policy. As an illustration, on an airplane, you have to buckle your seat belt no matter who you are. The hospital needed to have enforced that policy. Also, since it is a hospital, there are sick people there. The reason you wear mask like everybody else is to protect people from you.
That is part of the issue; the people whether in America or Ethiopia have to understand, we are always around people in the middle of the pandemic. That is the time to wear a mask. But the teaching point, you have been tested several times but when you get a negative test that is the point in time. You may have exposures after that and you may be harboring the virus in your body and may not know it; as you know, people can be entirely asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic.
Also something that we do not talk about enough which can be a major issue is that we think of these tests and treat them binary. They actually can tell you whether you have or do not. Doctors tell us that many of these tests are 15% false negative break. They are not perfect either; people can have a false sense of confidence from that.
Considering the public health implication after the opening the lockdown, we do not know how people feel about going out to the moles and markets for shopping and the economic implications it harbors. Let us examine the kind of health risk the situation is putting the workers in at this point because of the apparent outbreak around the globe. From what we hear on different TV channels, the situations, for instance, in meat-packing plants, and also some of the poultry processing industries, are very worrisome. The situation is something that all should be concerned about.
The challenge is that there are closed conditions; where there are workers dealing with a lot of aerosolized particles for the reason mentioned above. A lot of those workers in these plants do not have a choice to say ‘we do not feel safe to go there because we may not have appropriate and sufficient supply of personal protective equipment (PPE). This will put the health of the workers at risk.
Those workers may not make the same kind of salary either than many health workers make when they are going to work at hospitals, for example physicians. So there is that combination of people who really need to bring money home to have to go to work again; they cannot defy superiors, neither do they have the luxury of saying I do not really feel like going to work today because it is not safe and I can get the corona virus. At the same time, they face the additional complication of being under a federal directive to keep the plants open.
So, to anybody, it seems a little heavy-handed to put as kindly as possible and also it may not be the most important intervention that can be done at this time. It is recognizably important that we’ve got to feed our family. But the health and safety of the people who are keeping us alive is much more important at this time. If those workers could go in there with confidence that they did not have the virus and the people around them did not have it either , it can be a safer working environment. But the government is much worried about the distance that people need to keep at least six feet apart. But the duration you are having for long contact at least is twelve hours. All in all, the world is in a fix.
Easing the restriction has dual implication –either going back to work and keep the economy of the country afloat or expose the people to the corona virus infection. Zooming our view to Ethiopia, the catastrophe other countries have been through is not on a not too distant horizon. Even though the death rate seems insignificantly alarming, the rate at which the infection forces itself out is rather appalling. Let us pay heed to what the government entreats us to obey. Refusal to abide by the guidance and the restrictions is like a double-edged sword that cuts both ways.. It is rather a choice between the devil and the deep sea. No escape whatsoever.
The Ethiopian Herald May 29, 2020
BY JOSEPH SOBOKA
