Winding up 2018 as a watershed in Ethiopia’s History

Many times we are fond of using the term ‘historic’ or watershed when we want to describe a certain episode in Ethiopian history which makes us believe that something extraordinary has taken place. We may be impressed and are susceptible of exaggerating our reaction or overplay the significance of an event. Definitely, during the past several decades, we have recorded what could be taken as ‘landmarks’ in our history.

These are often radical and at times unexpected events that could or have changed our lives, or the way we portray our life and hence our country. Normally, regime changes are definitely landmarks in the history of a nation, but even a major radical legislation could be considered as such. In established democracies, regime changes do not normally constitute havoc or disruptions.

Some policies might change, personalities do change but there are no radical changes as such that would ‘transform’ the society fundamentally. The basic structure remains intact and citizens do not feel the change that much. Many people are induced to believing that the Donald Trump presidency in the United States is in many ways disruptive but fundamentally the US society has not changed. Parties interchange positions but the changes are usually not dramatic.

The scenario is however quite different in countries where democratic system is in infancy. Dramatic changes do happen. Is that what happened in Ethiopia during the 2018 period? It is open for debate. Be that as it may, what I intend to briefly dwell on is the way the European year 2018 has gone by. Major sequence of surprising events have rocked our nation.

We all agree that the country’s system did change when the victorious TPLF led EPRDF government took over the Derg military machinery in May 1991. But after twenty seven years, now may be the time to reflect that things have once again changed radically. People now believe that they have the right to relive what has been going on during the past years (until the ‘March Revolution’ which saw the resignation of Haile Mariam as premier and the selection of Dr Abiy.

It is difficult to deny that a silent revolution has taken place in our country during 2018. More is due in 2019! But only the naïve would believe that the transition is a bed of roses. The public’s perception is that for too long, power had been concentrated in a few peoples’ hands and for too long there was little control over such authority.

For too long, there was also no accountability to the public, no transparency and no rule of law! The regime’s bosses did whatever they wished on their own citizens with little restraints in the way the country’s resources were administered! It is now submitted that these conclusions are not based on mere speculations or conjectures but are a result of meticulous study and investigation.

When all is disclosed people might feel how powerless they had been for so long a period! When power is unrestrained in some manner, the academics say, power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Many believe that that was what exactly happened during the past twenty seven years, and 2018 can thus be taken as a ‘watershed moment’.

True the change had its basis during the past several years particularly during the last three or four. But it was never easy and never without sacrifices. Many assert a government that came to power using the gun could only be removed using the same means. Several means may have been used and several subjects and organizations may have played their part, but in the end the result was the regime change that today everyone feels. Of course this does not in any way imply that it is welcome by everyone.

Not at all! There are those who believe that their life will be disrupted, their comforts will be taken away and their privileges will wither away. And they intend to fight back. And it appears that this is what is taking place currently in various parts of the country. Unfortunately, it is leading to deaths, destruction and displacement of innocent people. But observers argue a change of this magnitude against a deeply rooted establishment can never happen smoothly or promptly. It needs time; it needs patience; and it needs tact; it needs strategy.

That was what the PM was heard repeatedly asserting. The enemies of this change could be many as are the enthusiast supporters. But the leadership must have the resolve and patience to cope with it. There were voices from various corners denouncing all the revelations the Attorney General’s office made recently.

The long arms of the residual security apparatus are not to be undermined. We have heard reports of continuous attempts to stage an assassination of the leaders of the reform or somehow disrupt the peace of the nation so that people recognize their influence has not ebbed.

There is a lot of cynicism in this. However, supporters of Abiy and company assert the point of no return has already been crossed, and whether they like it or not, they will never again be able to impose their whims and caprices on the Ethiopian people. Times have changed while they failed to change. A new demanding generation has erupted and it is a force of nature. All the promotions and declarations they used to make will not be palatable even to their own supporters. History will remember 2018 as a landmark because of all the above and even more to come.

Critics have always sustained that the federal system the government promoted so aggressively was one of the means used to silence all forms of dissent with a legal vest. It gave the impression that regions, arranged along ethnic and linguistic lines were independent from interference. But it was the contrary that was observed. Analysts sustain it appeared that all attempts were geared towards systematically undermining the unity of the entity called Ethiopia and possibly replace it with tiny ethnic states! Close collaborators of the regime who came to realize the gravity of certain policies preferred to defect and then expose to the world what was going on inside the psyche of the ruling elite.

According to opposition politicians and even some neutral observers, no region was as free as per the constitution’s precepts. Rather it was dependent on the directions of the bosses in Addis Ababa who had every means to influence if not subdue the citizens or lure them to submission with financial resources. In other words there was corruption in the making and regional states such as EthioSomali could very easily be cited as examples! History teaches us that usurping the people’s resources could only lead to one direction: disgraceful down fall. The problem is that dictators never believe that they would be deposed and humiliated.

Idi Amin Dada in Uganda, Colonel Ghadaffi in Libya, Bokassa in Central African Republic, Sadam Hussein in Iraq never thought they would one day be ousted.The leaders of our country may have accumulated all the riches of the world and may feel they can resist any change that would make them irrelevant in public life, but they fail to realize that even the largest and most powerful armies disintegrate when the time comes.

There is a cycle for every event, the inception, the birth and then the death. When D Day comes no one on earth would stop certain events. There are those who argue that it would not be worth to plunge the country into chaos and destruction to apprehend these few elements who have been gambling on the lives of innocent people with impunity! However, it is everyone’s guess that The International Court of Justice might not turn a blind eye on what exactly has been going on in our country for too long.

The relevant evidence appears to be handily available and only the law would exonerate these forces of their deeds. The presumption of innocence is a key principle of modern day criminal law and until proven guilty, they are presumed innocent. And the new Ethiopia of 2018 and following years will not be so primitive as to deny or violate this golden moral and legal principle.

Everyone has the right to a day in court and if these people have any justification for what they did during the past two and a half decades, people would definitely like to know about them. Then we could talk of a new Ethiopia free of its most suspicious elements who were found by the Attorney General’s experts while breaching fundamental human rights in daylight. Arrogance of power often leads to certain excesses desiring to realize what one dreams of! But the God of the innocent is always awake and vigilant; and one day He comes forth and exposes all the wrongs committed.

That year must be 2018 and it will definitely continue despite the immense challenges and unavoidable sacrifices! Innocent Ethiopians must be ready to all the consequences that may follow the events that matured during 2018. The transition will continue unabated because it is in the very inherence of things that such change needs to materialize at any cost.

Herald December 30/2018

BY: FITSUM GETACHEW