With Somalia’s semi-autonomous Jubbaland region leader claiming reelection in recent polls, the central government in Somalia has announced it was not going to recognize the result of the poll.
While President of Jubbaland, Ahmed Mohamed Madobe claimed victory in the recent election, the federal government has challenged the result of the poll. And security analysts fear on possible escalation of tension between the semi-autonomous region and the central government and urging neighboring countries to help both parties find a gray line in their differences.
Jubbaland is a strategic yet stable location for counter-terrorism activities in Somalia where Ethiopia and Kenya carry significant security roles and station large peacekeeping forces in combating Al-Shabaab, a militant groups posing security concerns to the Horn Africa.
And sharing border with Jubbaland region of Somalia and having peacekeeping forces in the country, Ethiopia and Kenya’s role in the peaceful settlement of any confrontations is immense. Ethiopia and Kenya though having own national interests are urged to work closely in regional security before such confrontation trigger far –reaching consequences.
Ethiopia’s relations with Somaliland and Puntland do not exclude the central government in Somalia. And this is what the country should push for in the case of Jubbaland too. All activities are and will have to be in line with the federal arrangement of Somalia. It requires cooperation among all parties, says Political Analyst at Ethiopian Foreign Relations Strategic Studies Institute Abebe Ayenete.
“A weak Somalia is not by any means advantageous to the neighboring countries. The relation between Kenya and Ethiopia is cordial and both countries should continue working closely in the areas of security and peace of the region as they have been doing already.”
Confrontational diplomacy is not imperative to the region. At least that is what the past did prove. The time calls for cooperation and collectiveness. One of the very unique features of the Horn of Africa is that what is going on in one country will definitely have some impact in the other. Hence, Ethiopia should carefully analyze interest and roles, and engage in diplomatic activities with other countries that would bring an ultimate peace to the region, he underscores.
Peace, security and conflict affairs expert Minas Feseha says: “The dynamicity is and the stakes are high in the case of Jubbalnd. Ethiopian has long been supporting the central government in Somalia. So been Kenya.” And, Ethiopia and Kenya enjoy strong relation; however, both countries do have individually tailored interests, he adds.
“Jubbalnd is very strategic location for Ethiopia if its relation with Somalia continues to come to fruition. It may serve as an alternative port for Addis Ababa”.
He adds that the central government did not recognize the autonomy of Jubbaland, Puntland and [Somaliland] other parties have sent congratulatory message to the leader of Jubbaland. This has far reaching implications.
“Ethiopia needs to intensify its engagement with the people of Jubbaland and Somalia at large besides stepping up ties with Kenya, he says adding “thus, I guess there is no need for wrangling over. What it only requires consecutive negotiations among Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya as the latter two countries share borders with Jubbaland”.
Ethiopia can also engage in talks with Jubbaland within the framework of Somalia’s sovereignty, Minas notes. The issue of Jubbaland is the sovereign matter Somalia. And the election is the primary concern of the country. However, if there is anything Ethiopia can do, it is to positively add to peaceful resolution of the matter, says Yibeltal Amero Neighboring Countries and IGAD Affairs Director General.
“It is true that what goes in neighboring country may spark a domino effects to the region. But the political matters of the country rest on the hands of the Somalia government.”
The Ethiopian Herald, August 30/2019
BY DESTA GEBREHIWOT
