For centuries, Ethiopia had been ruled by monarchies and people were subjected to the harsh rule of the governors. The feudal economic system reigned for centuries hampered economic progress and left farmers to live in hand to mouth condition. Exploitation and operation left the society simmering waited for change.
The abolishment of the archive imperial system in 1974 by popular revolution had brought hope for political development and economic progress but it was derailed by the military group and later the nation immersed in civil war for 17 years. Though the downfall of the Derg regime in 1991 brought hope, the defunct EPRDF regime ruled the nation undemocratically with the iron fist for 27 years and was dethroned by public resentment in 2018.
Yared Hailemeskel, an economist, working in several organizations based in London, recently talked to local media on various issues of the nation’s economy.
As to him, Ethiopians had remained entrenched in a monarchical system for a long period with decision-making and enforcement consistently concentrated in the authoritarian rulers. Consequently, an inherent power dynamics detached from public needs and aspirations became culturally normalized in Ethiopian politics.
Despite its controversial policies under the EPRDF administration, it had witnessed notable economic improvements through some beneficial measures. Particularly, from 1991-1995, the party embarked on liberalizing the financial system and privatizing some state owned institutions and reversed the previous socialist economic doctrines.
However, these policies lacked public consent. Similar to any system, limitations existed. Ethiopia has reached a point where challenges overshadowed economic gains, putting the system’s sustainability under question.
In this context, the lack of political plurality and the repression of opposition parties can be seen as obstacles that contributed to the downfall of the EPRDF.
He also said that regardless of the philosophical framework a government adheres to, it should always evolve, address the needs of the general population, and be responsive to the changing times.
According to Yared, in the early years of the EPRDF’s rule, its political ideology enjoyed widespread acceptance. However, through time, the political system lost its integrity, leaving the people longing for change.
This dissatisfaction stems from the ruling government’s policies and philosophies, which bear resemblance to both the monarchical era and the Derg dictatorship. These policies have shown resistance to considering diverse perspectives, while political repression and economic control have become concentrated within the government and its affiliated groups.
The situation began to deteriorate following the announcement of the 2010 election results, in which the EPRDF secured nearly all seats in the parliament. This led to the emergence of resentment from various parts of the country, triggering massive demonstrations that ultimately resulted in the downfall of the regime.
Seizing this opportunity, an internal political transition took place, instilling newfound hope among the public. As a result, Ethiopia has undergone significant political reforms. While these reforms brought about positive changes and expanded political freedoms, conflicts have arisen here and there.
However, in relation to the assumption of power by reformist team, there were expectations for the cessation of both political repression and excessive economic control. These hopes were based on two specific aspirations. Firstly, there was a strong desire to put an end to polarized ethnic politics that had plagued the nation. Secondly, there was hopeful anticipation for a reduction in the government’s influence over the economy. At the very least, these were reforms that the incoming administration intended to prioritize and implement.
While notable developments have taken place in terms of political reforms and the opening up of political spaces, it can be argued that significant economic reforms have yet to be implemented, particularly when compared to the extensive legislative measures undertaken by the EPRDF during its tenure.
According to Yared, during the Derg regime, Ethiopians had been prohibited from establishing banks or owning private businesses worth high capital, and public-owned entities were entirely controlled by the government. However, under EPRDF’s reign, significant reforms were introduced, leading to the abolition of these restrictions.
As a result, Ethiopians were given the opportunity to participate in the private banking sector, and some government-owned entities were privatized partially and fully. Substantial reforms implemented by the previous government also resumed.
However, it is reasonable to assume that the current government may have a different approach when it comes to liberalizing or privatizing the telecom service and opening up the financial sector to foreign investment.
The country was compelled to adopt the World Bank’s structural adjustment policy, which includes economic liberalization as one of its pillars. It is important to note that privatization was already among the agenda of the previous government, and the incumbent acknowledged the necessity of implementing the adjustment policy as a means to initiate the process of opening up these sectors.
As to Yared, Ethiopia’s socio economic woes are deep rooted, decades of authoritarian rule and the historical legacy of ethnic divisions and grievances, along with issues such as land disputes, marginalization, and perceived inequalities, have significantly contributed to the prevailing tensions in Ethiopia.
In addition, the reforms on the economic front have been limited or nonexistent in certain areas, particularly regarding land rights.
In Ethiopia, farmers, without securing land ownership, find themselves in uncertain circumstances that put them in a disadvantageous position and perpetuating a cycle of inequality. This persistent issue has played a prominent role in perpetuating the recurring challenges the country faced.
Based on his observations in England, Yared said that various investment groups and investors initially showed interest in Ethiopia following the political transition, assuming that the country was open for business. However, they encountered significant barriers in the bureaucratic process, ultimately leading them to withdraw their investment plans. This bureaucratic hurdle has become a deterrent, impeding the potential inflow of investments into the country.
While the previous government had an operational system in place despite its bureaucratic policies and favored investment, the current government inherited various political, economic and woes which require time and resoluteness.
It tried its level best to address the past mistakes and attain economic progress and to that end, it has taken various measures. But the war broke out in the northern part of Ethiopia brought a deterrent effect on the witnessed economic achievements.
Currently, the nation faced various challenges in the economic front and among others, negative trade balance, shortage of foreign currency, illegal trade, inflation and corruption. In addition, the conflicts flared in various parts of the country hamper trade and business.
Abduction of citizens when moving from place to place posed fears on drivers and made transaction cost of agricultural products very expensive. Besides, it affects value chins of supplying of agricultural inputs to farmers.
According to the recent study findings, the absence of peace and security in some areas of the country created good opportunity to the illegal traders to smuggle cattle and agricultural products to the neighboring countries which again put pressure on the economy.
As to him, Ethiopia has a potential to register economic growth through exploiting its abundant natural resources such as arable lands, productive labor force, water, mine, energy and tourism but without bringing political stability realizing development goals is impossible.
Many countries all over the world passed through political ups and downs, but through time, they could able to stabilize their countries and resolve conflicts through dialogue. Therefore, Ethiopia can attain peace and stability through drawing lessons from other countries. The ongoing efforts exerted by the National Dialogue Commission to prepare platform for conducting dialogue among various political and interest groups should be supported by all stakeholders.
The political differences currently created rift among groups are not created today and most of them are inherited from the past. Therefore, resolving the problems needs conducting dialogue heartedly.
As mentioned above, Ethiopia missed various opportunities in the past and now it is time to embark on the path to peace and stability through reconciliation and pardon.
The appalling poverty witnessed in the country is worrisome and it is time to stop conflict and exerting energy to achieving economic progress.
BY ABEBE WOLDEGIORGIS
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 18 OCTOBER 2023
