For several years now, we have been watching the slow but sure shift of the equilibrium of global power from the West to the East. The economic giants of the East such as China, India, and Russia, representing the Global South’s demand for a fair and just world order, are confidently expanding their influence in terms of military power, trade, investment, high-tech capabilities, and access to high-value natural resources, and so on.
The global political and economic landscape is changing much faster than we realize. In a short period of time, the BRICS have gone from being an investment thesis to a global force to be reckoned with. Just 15 years ago, the word BRICS was an almost unknown term; now it dominates the global political agenda.
The GDP of the BRICS bloc has already surpassed that of the G7, the group of the world’s most advanced economies. According to PPP based comparison, the BRICS account for about 32 % of global GDP, which is more than that of the G7 share which is around 29 %.
Following its decision last month to more than double the number of its member states, next year the BRICS bloc would grow to cover close to half of the world population, about one-third of the global GDP, over a quarter of global exports, over 40% of global oil production and would cover far more land surface than the G7 bloc. With all these and other facts, BRICS has assumed the power to shake the existing unfair world order.
It originally started as BRIC with only four nations about 15 years ago, then a year later it became BRICS, and now after 14 years it became BRICS+. But there is something funny about this bloc. Unlike the G7 block, it is a group of unequals. There is a wide difference in the policy and size of their economies. They have differing alignments with the West.
Some analysts say BRICS is the outcome of the struggle of the Global South against the unfair nature of the existing world order which is under the hegemony of Western powers that account for a minimal portion of the world population and natural resources.
Most of the global multinational agencies like the UN are under the spell of these powers. The voice of the global south is underrepresented in the UN. The West is in control of 60% of permanent seats of the UNSC, while the share of continents of Latin America and Africa is zero. It is unthinkable to access the services of the IMF and World Bank, the two international agencies supporting the structure of the world’s economic and financial order, without getting the green light from the Western powers. The undisputed supremacy of the US dollar in the global financial system and trade is another example of unfairness.
Under the backdrop of these situations, it is not at all surprising to see the rise of an alternative economic bloc, BRICS, which has won the favor and confidence of so many states in the global South.
Above all the news that came from South Africa during the BRICS summit, the one that took the international community by surprise most was the inclusion of Ethiopia on the list of countries invited to join the block next year.
The recent expansion of BRICS to become BRICS Plus is not just adding the number of members, rather it is a carefully calculated strategic move driven by geopolitical and economic reasons. It is more likely a decision made by the BRICS leaders with two things in their mind- the need to get ahead in the competition against the West to control natural resources and assert a strong influence on the increasingly tensioned region of the Red Sea.This region is, as some analysts put it, the chocking point of the major strategic trade route linking the East with the West.
Four of the six states invited to join BRICS are in the Red Sea region. These are Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Ethiopia. Moreover, the fifth one, Iran is another Middle Eastern state that shares a maritime border with the other two BRICS entrants, UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The BRICS decision is indicative of the fact that the Red Sea region would continue to be the most strategic and fiercely contested region of the world, where major powers would spend their time and resources to ensure the protection of their interests.
In light of this assessment, Ethiopia’s invitation to join the BRICS should not be regarded as a favor to Ethiopia. The major BRICS powers need Ethiopia for their strategic objectives just as much as Ethiopia needs their financial and technological support to realize its socio-economic development objectives, especially in building economic and social infrastructures and nurturing a speedy growth of the manufacturing sector.
Like other African nations, Ethiopia considers BRICS as an alternative venue for bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation without jeopardizing its long-standing beneficial relations with the G7 nations. Ethiopia’s admission to the BRICS club has huge symbolic value in upgrading the country’s image in the global arena. The increased possibility of alternative ways of conducting trade and investment without the need to use the US dollar is another advantage.
It is unfair not to recognize the invitation of Ethiopia to join BRICS as one of the foremost diplomatic successes scored by the incumbent Ethiopian government during the just-ended Ethiopian year. This success undoubtedly can be interpreted as an indirect recognition of Ethiopia’s stature as a geopolitical heavyweight and indispensable regional power in the Red Sea region. Some International media analysts covering the news of BRICS have been heard describing Ethiopia as the powerhouse of the Horn of Africa.
Two weeks after the news of Ethiopia’s invitation to join the BRICS, so many political analysts are still wondering in disbelief, and only guessing how that happened. We may not know the criteria that the BRICS leaders employed to choose Ethiopia over the other African heavyweights Algeria and Nigeria, both of which are well ahead of Ethiopia in terms of industrialization, infrastructure, and development of strategic natural resources like oil/gas.
“In the list of new entrants [to the BRICS], one name stood out sparking debates and discussions: Ethiopia. This East African nation with its unique history and rapid development strides was a surprise addition for many. Ethiopia is joining the BRICS and is shaking the [regional] geopolitical landscape.” says Anastasia Golyakova, a publicist writing on BRICS affairs.
But there is one thing we can be sure of. Hereafter, the international community, be it for political and economic considerations, would look at Ethiopia with glasses different from the one they used in the past.
BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD TUESDAY 10 OCTOBER 2023
