In Guba wereda, a remote place less than 40 km from the Sudanese border, lies the most important development project that all Ethiopians have had their eyes on since 2011. Ashebir Tesfaye is one of the 6,000 workers at the GERD construction site who toil day and night. He has been with the project since it began 12 years ago.
“We are here hundreds of kilometers away from our families and relatives. But we do our work with great enthusiasm and full dedication. This is not only a job but also a patriotic mission. We work around the clock to fulfill the great expectations of the Ethiopian people. That’s why every day when we look around, we notice a significant change,” he says
It would not be wrong to call this week a GERD Week. – A week that holds a special place in Ethiopia’s contemporary history as it marks a milestone in the political and socio-economic development of Ethiopia. On April 2, 2011, former Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi laid the foundation stone of GERD, declaring to the world that the day has come for Ethiopia to materialize its long-held ambition of utilizing one of its most prominent natural resources, the River Abay.
12 years on, a lot has been accomplished in the process of the realization of the GERD project, the most ambitious ever, and sponsored by the Ethiopians themselves despite the politically motivated rejection of donor countries of the West and major international financiers like the World Bank. With more than 90 % percent of its overall work already done, the GERD is now approaching completion, undergoing the most critical stages of its construction.
The long-awaited completion of the GERD would upswing the growth trajectory of the Ethiopian economy. Once GERD began producing power to its full capacity, the power-hungry industries would begin working 24/7. One of the top issues in the list of complaints of foreign investors in Ethiopia, power shortage, will be addressed, and this will spur acceleration in the influx of FDI in the manufacturing sector.
56 percent of the Ethiopian population, who are currently in the darkness, unable to get a power supply, would soon be totally electrified. As a result, small businesses would flourish, and that expedites the diversification of the economy as more people began to engage in new jobs other than farming, the mainstay of the economy.
Traditional means of production would be mechanized with the advent of cheap electric power in every corner of the country. Social services including health and education would be highly improved in the rural areas where the majority of the Ethiopian population resides.
Beyond being a game changer in the transformation of the socio-economic situation of the nation, GERD can also be reckoned as a tool to expedite the economic integration of Eastern Africa. In that respect, many analysts do not view GERD merely as an Ethiopian project, but as a project of the Greater Horn.
However, despite so many changes happening on the ground, one thing about the GERD remained stuck, barely moving only circling the cycles of trial and failure over the last 12 years. – The GERD negotiation process among the lower riparian states.
Egypt and Sudan are still where they are 12 years ago, oblivious to the changing situations on the ground. They are still repeating the words they have been saying before the first filling of the dam started in 2020. They were warning catastrophe would strike the people, if Ethiopia go ahead to fill the GERD reservoir. For three consecutive years, Ethiopia filled the dam to a growing height, but nothing happened. And yet Egyptian officials and scholars are still reiterating the imaginary danger and paranoid speculations.
It is a proven fact that the dam does not cause issues of any significance in the lower riparian states, Sudan and Egypt. In the early day of the project,2013, the report of the International Panel of Experts (IPOE) proved that GERD is a benign development project that causes no significant trouble to anybody’s interest. That is why Egypt declined to endorse the findings of the report.
In addition to the expert’s testimony, the flawless and successful three consecutive filling stages did not seem to be enough cause to inspire Egypt and Sudan to revisit their flawed arguments. The funny thing is when the GERD filling was taking place, the international media had been witnessing several incidents of floods occurring in Sudan and the Egyptian Aswan dam had been overflowing with excess water at the same time.
And yet the Egyptian and Sudanese experts are still denouncing the yearly filling process should be halted, arguing that it causes a shortage of water to their people. The truth is the filling of GERD all of which is conducted in the rainy seasons, has contributed to the minimization of the loss of lives and properties due to severe flooding.
Some analysts argue that the Egyptians know too well the GERD, a hydropower generating project, would not affect the amount of water they get. Rather the hidden reason behind all their campaign against GERD is to see the project halted. Egyptians do not see GERD the way Ethiopians see it, a development project. The Egyptians consider it as a politically motivated undertaking aimed at ending their hegemony on the Nile River.
Now that GERD is a reality, Sudan and Egypt must adopt a new mode of engagement with Ethiopia. Egyptian politicians need to realize that the day of competition for hegemony on the Nile is over and should be replaced by cooperation for mutual benefit and equitable utilization of the bounties of the Nile.
In addition to developing the mindset of cooperation, Egypt and Sudan need to realize their obligation and responsibility to ensure the sustainability of the utilization of the Nile. The two lower riparian states claim that they have a ‘historical right’ over the Nile. But where ever there is right, there will always be an obligation that comes along with it.
For one thing, they must not squander the resources of the Nile. Unfortunately, the water management system of Sudan and Egypt has a lot to be desired in terms of the efficient use of water resources. Egypt the foremost exploiter of the Nile, uses 85% of the river for agricultural activities, and 90% of this is conventional agriculture.
A recent study confirmed that the Egyptian irrigation system is so outdated and inefficient, that it could have saved several billion cubic meters of water annually if it is modernized by introducing the latest technologies that are already being used by such nations as Israel.
Second, Egypt and Sudan must help and support watershed development and afforestation/reforestation activities being carried out by the upper riparian countries. They should be active participants and contribute their fair share to such natural resource development initiatives as the one being undertaken by the Ethiopian government, The Green Legacy Initiative.
The Egyptians must understand that neither the Ethiopian government nor any signing of the agreement could guarantee them the 55.5BCM of Nile water, the amount they still claim to be their ‘historical’ share of the Nile. If they want to see to it that they would get whatever amount they need from the Nile, they have to actively work closely with upper riparian states in the conservation of the Nile River system.
But so far, Egypt and Sudan seem to be concerned about protecting their share of the water, they are totally oblivious to the concern of making the Nile healthy, safe, and as strong and bountiful as it has been for centuries. The Ugandan President made a sensational sound bite regarding this matter a few years ago. “The Egyptians do not care about the Nile.
It is like wanting the milk without feeding the cow. You just wait for the cow in the evening to give you milk, but you do not have the time and interest to take care of the cow during the day. The Egyptian authorities just sit up there and came down here only to talk about the amount of water. We [the upstream countries] are struggling alone to protect the Nile, instead of working together [with them]”
The stalled GERD negotiation is expected to resume in the near future. We hope this time it will successfully end with an outcome of a comprehensive agreement that respects the right of Ethiopia to develop its resources within its sovereign territories without harming others. We also hope they would be agreement would contain an article that requires Sudan and Egypt to share and shoulder responsibility for the conservation of the Nile.
Ethiopia requests the lower riparian states to share responsibilities on the Nile as well as respect its sovereign right to benefit from Nile’s bounty. Days and nights in Guba reflect Ethiopians’ determination and optimism to benefit from the Nile’s riches the same way Sudanese and Egyptians have doing for centuries. “We are now rushing to complete this project and bring it to fruition. In doing so, we will transform our country and our life in a way like never before.”, says Ashebeir, the night shift worker at the GERD site.
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD TUESDAY 11 APRIL 2023
