The dog barks, the caravan moves on

BY GIRMACAHEW GASHAW

Since the inception of the project to now, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project has taken 12 solid years. These years were not easy for Ethiopia who is a source of more than 80 percent Nile waters. Though they knew the reality on the ground and the benefit they have got from the dam, the downstream countries were not interested to stand in cooperation with Ethiopia since day one of the project.

The GERD technical committee which comprises water experts and other fellow Ethiopians here and there were exposing the unreal scientific researches coming up with concrete evidence. Fekahmed Negash is one among many experts who are still doing the same. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) can help to save a significant amount of water from evaporation on the Nile River, a Water Resource Management Consultant revealed.

According to him, several studies, including the joint study by the UK and Egypt in 1925, has concluded that storage of water in Ethiopia and Lake Victoria can save water. The saving of water from storage in Ethiopia is mainly due to the ambient temperature in the Ethiopian Highlands and the low surface to storage ratio offered by the deep gorge in Ethiopia that would expose limited water surface to evaporation, he said.

“It is known that the High Aswan Dam in Egypt that inundated an area four times as large as that inundated by the GERD gave the Aswan High Dam the name ‘Large Hot Pan in the Sahara’. It evaporates annually between 10-16 billion cubic meters of water. The combined evaporation from dams in Sudan is estimated at between 5-7 billion cubic meters.”

Hence annual evaporative loss in the two countries is in the magnitude of 15-23 billion cubic meters, depending on various factors that determine evaporation from the dams, including the extent of area inundated, the temperature, wind speed, and air moisture among others.

Fekahmed further noted that the four dams, namely GERD, Mandia, Beko Abo and Karadobi, proposed on the main channel of the Abbay River can store water that is equivalent to the combined storage of dams in Sudan and Egypt.

The water that is lost by evaporation from the four dams on the Abbay River is estimated to be only 4-5 billion cubic meters. The difference of 10-18 billion cubic meters is the amount of water saved from evaporation by storing water in the Abbay Basin alone, the expert explained.

Fekahmed pointed out that additional storage opportunities that can be created by other dams in the Abbay, Baro Akobo and Tekeze basins offer further savings. “This water saved from evaporation from the dams in Egypt and Sudan is by far higher than the near future water demand of Ethiopia for all purposes, and hence contributes to additional flow in the basin,” he expounded.

Size-wise the GERD is the fourth-largest dam in Africa after Kariba Dam between Zimbabwe and Zambia, Akosombo Dam of Ghana and the High Aswan Dam of Egypt, neither of which were considered controversial and critical issues of global importance.

Fekahmed believes that what makes the filling of the GERD so important is the challenge posed by downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan, claiming concerns due to lack of information that evolved into fear of causing significant impact and eventually leading into unwarranted consideration as a threat to international peace and security. As a headwater of the Nile, contributing 86 percent of its water, Ethiopia did not make any significant use of this nature given the bounty that belongs to all citizens of the basin.

In line with the diplomatic struggle, Ethiopia has been undertaking the construction of the dam within three shifts for 24 hours. This was possible as the stance of the three leaders from Meles Zenawi to Abiy Ahmed is one and same stance on the issue of GERD. Since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took power, the speed of construction has increased more than ever before. Accordingly, the dam comes to fruition within a short period of time.

On 19 July 2020, a key historical moment was celebrated as the first-year filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was achieved, with no effect at all on the downstream flow of the Nile River, or the ‘Abbay’ as it is known in Ethiopia. The filling of the Dam was made possible by a particularly heavy rainy season.

The news brought joy and a great sense of satisfaction to Ethiopians, from rich to relatively poor, most of whom had contributed to the construction of the Dam, according to their means, by investing in Bonds. Senior government officials congratulated the public on their invaluable contribution and spoke of the transformative nature of the GERD.

On February 20, 2021, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed started up the first turbine of the GERD and made a historic milestone on the nation’s flagship project. After seven months, the second turbine of the GERD has started producing electricity after a successful installation and testing period. This increases Dam’s current electric power production capacity to 750MW. Once completed, the dam will have an installed production capacity of 5,150 MW.

GERD is a game changer in the sense that it would change the existing unfair and unbalanced utilization of the waters of the Nile. It is a game changer as it will challenge the colonial era treaties that were signed among and between colonial masters and some basin states to the exclusion of the source countries.

Furthermore, it sends a clear message to those doubting its existence that it is real and operational. Thus, it enhances Ethiopia’s capacity to negotiate with downstream countries by mobilizing the public behind the team. At the same time, he stated that it can also encourage downstream countries to stop their intransigence and frequent shifting of the goalpost so as to come to the negotiation table faithfully for the benefit of all.

The construction of the dam moves ahead, no matter the criticism it may face. As the saying goes, the dog barks, but the caravan goes on. Though attaining its development vision, Ethiopia moves forward until it will be an electric power hub of neighboring countries.

 Editor’s Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect the stance of The Ethiopian Herald

The Ethiopian Herald April 5 2023

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