Many people in Ethiopia are worried about developments in Sudan and rightly so. The relations between Ethiopia and Sudan are of such strength and intensity that only those who are not aware of what disastrous consequences would follow to its neighbours particularly to Ethiopia if there are grave disturbances and failure of law and order in the country would stay tranquil. Besides there are thousands of Ethiopians who have chosen their residence to be there and likewise there are a sizeable Sudanese community here. The interaction between the two countries is more than brotherly. Hence, the chances of smiling when there is fire in Sudan and peace and order is disrupted are very slim. As neighbours we cannot rejoice on their failure. Rather, we sincerely hope that things will get to normal and the aspirations of the Sudanese people are met via a peaceful transition.
In the meantime however the latest news that transpires from Khartoum do not let us jump with joy. While all those who believe that democracy is the only system of government that can do justice to the Sudanese people as it is for Ethiopians, did rejoice when the Bashir government was toppled by peaceful protest, there are however more than one concerns that the transition to democracy could be hijacked by certain ‘undemocratic forces’. Sudanese people of course do not deserve this.
The Bashir regime had almost finished its life cycle. Life was becoming harder and harder by the day to the ordinary Sudanese as the cost of living continued to skyrocket. The government could not address these and other issues. It was accused of being largely dominated by the interests of a few individuals linked with each other in their personal affairs and forgetful of the plight of the masses.
Indeed many considered the Bashir regime not only inefficient but also corrupt with massive national resources usurped by the top leadership. There were reports that even the president was a billionaire, an accusation that is often addressed to African autocrats. The question has arisen regarding his close associates and family members: How much riches have these people amassed under the indulgent and complacent eyes of the top leadership including the president?
While this process of cleaning the corrupt practices and reinventing a clean government may take time, there appears to be little patience on the part of those who initiated the whirlwind that swept away the Omar al Bashir government. In fact, these groups seem to be not willing to compromise with the system that they say includes the military establishment now exerting transitional power. The argument is that they are too much entrenched in the old system and have been collaborating in oppressing the people of Sudan with the complicity and approval of the top leadership of the country for years. That is why they are viewed with skepticism by the civilian groups seeking complete change and a transition to full democracy.
This is a huge challenge because there appears not to exist a well-organized group of people such as a recognized and well prepared political party that could take over the reins of power once the Transitional Military Council may relinquish their place in the palace, even if highly unlikely under the current circumstances. Unity among the opposition alliance appears lacking and this must have given more confidence to the ruling military. Common intent seems distant and there are reports of disagreements among the opposition groups on how to go about deciding the destiny of the country. This issue is central and if not clearly agreed upon it is bound to be the bone of contention of all political forces before settling on one choice. This has created a sense of anxiety among the rank and file of Sudanese people and as close observers we can only augur them the best. Otherwise, the sacrifices of the people of Sudan shall have been vain. Any continuation of the military rule can only be viewed as disastrous.
History has taught us that incidents that follow regime change and transition could be violent and costly in terms of human life and property. With feelings and expectations very high there is little patience and little moderation. And mistakes are highly probable and eventually who loses most are the people if they are without a wise and forward looking guidance. Grudge and revenge on the former rulers is also a risk. And the success or failure of such transition depends on the way transition leaders act and decide.
The military appears to exert power now; but there are others who refute this thesis and argue that real power lies in the hands of the second man whom the Sudanese know as the leader of a notorious paramilitary group called Rapid Support Forces, RSF. These were accused of mercilessly cracking down rebellion in Darfur region of west Sudan up on the order of the former leader president Bashir. How much acceptance would such leader secure is now a big ask also because they say he is the one behind the clampdown of June 3rd and 4th. This is another cause of worry for the civilian led opposition. If indeed he is the one who exerts maximum power in Khartoum, it would be difficult to be optimist for the Sudanese people in the success of the forthcoming negotiations.
In the meantime, worldwide condemnation has been pouring against the moves of the military rulers with loud voices calling for restraint in the use of force.
Sudan is currently boiling up and the immediate consequences could be not only dramatic but also catastrophic if restraint in the use of force is not applied. Already the controversial figure of a hundred victims in the clampdown of the sit-ins is considered scandalous. Negotiations appeared to halt and the future does not seem promising. The latest events induce us to believe that it would not be farfetched to see the Sudanese people in despair, their sacrifices appearing to plunge into another cycle of authoritarian military rule.
In a system that is blessed with democratic institutions it would have been easy to conduct free and fair elections with all the necessary safeguards in terms of organizing and preparing for transparent elections in a level playing field. But without such arrangements, a long and tortuous path is to be expected and not always the results are positive or fast. Sudan does not seem to have these structures and the guarantee of peaceful transition could look wishful thinking unless some charismatic leader transpires and helps prepare the ground for peaceful and orderly transition. And it is here the vacuum.
Sudan is at crossroads no doubt but the risks of failing during the transition period are becoming more and more palpable and worrying unless things change and fast. This is so not only for the nationals but also for countries that have close relationship with it such as its neighbours Ethiopia, Egypt, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Chad. No wonder the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, IGAD, did not watch developments impassive but issued statements condemning the violence and calling for utmost restraint. The same have been heard from other beaches as well such as the US and UK etc. This is a key moment in events in Sudan and the sooner it is addressed the better.
Otherwise, the risks of internationalizing the confrontation and escalation could be so high that a repeat of what we saw in some neighbouring countries may not be that distant. Let us hope that the worst days are gone for good and better ones dawn for the Sudanese people and for Africa in general.
The Ethiopian Herald Sunday June 9, 2019
BY FITSUM GETACHEW
