Due to the warmongering nature of the TPLF, the conflict in northern Ethiopia has now been going on for 19 months without any tangible sign of ending. Thousands of lives were lost, and billions of birrs worth of properties were destroyed in this conflict. Ethiopian blood and tears have been spilled needlessly due to a highly destructive conflict initiated by the TPLF.
TPLF chose the time for the war to begin without considering mitigation measures for its impact on the Tigrayan people. It may even be possible that the TPLF deliberately selected the timing of the conflict to maximize the impact on the Tigrayan people. Obviously, this was meant to draw the attention of the entire world. In that sense, TPLF leaders have scored their political goals at the cost of the plight of the people. Tigray’s hunger has captured the world’s attention. Four months after the conflict began, the WFP published a report in March 2021 that includes the following: “The outbreak of conflict in Tigray last November coincided with the peak harvest period, meaning employment and incomes were lost, markets were disrupted, food prices rose, and access to cash and fuel became very difficult.”
In the early days of the conflict, few expected it to continue for so long. Unwelcomed interference by external forces, particularly Western powers, has contributed to the protracted war. After the federal government chased TPLF out of Mekele at the end of November 2020, slowly but surely, Tigray was in the process of normalization. But a few months later, after the westerns began entering Tigray under the name of humanitarian activities, the normalization process reversed, the pounded and dissolved TPLF recrystallized, and the violence reignited across Tigray and even spilled over to the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar.
While The anti-peace and unethical activities of the western aid workers in Tigray continued, western politicians, leaders of international agencies, and their media escalated the political pressure by exaggerating the situation in Tigray. Some of those aid officers whose interference was intolerable were declared persona non grata. Instead of resolutely pushing for peace, and calling a spade a spade, the external powers prefer to give tacit approval to the aggressor [TPLF] and accuse the victim [the Ethiopian government].
When TPLF was in an offensive position, western powers would keep quiet, hoping the rebel group would succeed. But when TPLF finds itself in a weaker position, western powers speak about peace and cessation of hostilities incessantly and apply diplomatic and economic pressures on the Ethiopian government.
Generally, the efforts exerted by the western powers to bring peace to northern Ethiopia were not successful for at least three reasons. One, the western powers and the international agencies under their influence [like the UN] were not impartial and free from biased to be effective in helping bring peace. Second, they were using the conflict as an opportunity to maximize their chance of upgrading their presence in the Horn. The Westerns’ lust to get the upper hand in the geopolitics of the Horn has compromised their trustworthiness, integrity, and neutrality. In doing so, they departed from the basics and historical facts that should be taken into account in the bid to bring lasting peace to Northern Ethiopia.
Lastly, they did not give enough attention and priority to the conflict to a level that matches the grave humanitarian crisis it caused and its possible regional and global repercussions if it remains unsolved. For instance, the UN Chief has visited both Ukraine and Russia just after two months the Russo- Ukrainian war broke out. The northern Ethiopian conflict has been on for 19 months now, and it has realistic potential to reignite again. It appears António Guterres is not even planning to visit Ethiopia to see for himself the situation on the ground, and exercise his leverage as the world’s top diplomat. Does Africa actually have that little importance compared to Europe?
Most Ethiopians believe the best viable push for peace would come from the Africans under the leadership of AU, not from UN, Americans or Europeans. Ethiopians have developed trust and confidence in AU. This situation was perfectly demonstrated as logical when the American facilitated [mediated in some sense] GERD talks that ended in stalemate was later revived by the AU-led GERD talks.
AU has already made some considerable efforts in pushing for peace for Ethiopia. Last year the regional body appointed Olusegun Obasanjo as a High Representative for the Horn. Among other things, Obsanjo’s firsthand experience of the Biafran War, a conflict involving secessionists, ethnic violence, and the fight to preserve Nigeria’s unity make him particularly qualified for his assignment with the AU.
The seasoned Nigerian statesman has spent the last several months paying frequent visits to different parts of Ethiopia including the war-affected regions of Northern Ethiopia. He has had talks with the political leaders at federal and regional levels, including Amhara, Afar, Oromia, and Tigray regions. Such inclusivity and objectivity would allow him to analyze Ethiopia’s present and future in a way that differs from the way Americans or Europeans do.
Being open and committed to all peace initiatives, the Ethiopian government has expressed unreserved support for the effort being made by Obasanjo in bringing and maintaining peace in the troubled region of the Horn. Last month Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Demeke Mekonnen reportedly underscored that Ethiopia would remain committed to the peace initiative of the Former Nigerian President Obasanjo under the auspices of the AUC.
The Ethiopian government’s commitment to peace is well evidenced and practically demonstrated on several occasions during the curse of the conflict. First, the Ethiopian government withdrew from Tigray and declared a unilateral ceasefire in June 2021. Yet, the TPLF refused to accept this peace offer. Later in March, after driving off TPLF forces that were advancing, the government declared a humanitarian truce. Moreover, the release of high-profile political figures from prison including TPLF leaders captured during the war, the lifting of the state of emergency, and the establishment of an independent National Dialogue Commission are among the practical measures expressing the Government’s commitment to ensuring lasting peace in the country.
Premier Abiy has recently made it clear his government’s stance and unreserved commitment to see to it that humanitarian aid reaches all the needy in the war-affected northern Ethiopia despite all the challenges: “Ethiopia commits to continue indefinite unilateral humanitarian truce and other measures with a view to ensuring unhindered humanitarian assistance reach those in need in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions” he said
On the other hand, TPLF has nothing to show for itself to prove its commitment to peace. Those who know the track record of that terrorist group would concur with the idea that TPLF has never had the experience of resolving conflict with peaceful means. It will always use negotiation to distract rivals and buy time before launching a surprise attack or stab in the back. For TPLF, violence is the preferred method of settling disputes. In his recent letter to the UN chief, the terrorist group leader, Debretsion has implicitly indicated that he would reignite the war.
Earlier last August, TPLF had denounced the appointment of the Obasanjo as the AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa (HoA). That was the time TPLF was on the offensive advancing toward the capital city and showing its true colors; a terrorist organization that has not give priority to peace. It was later on November 2022, after it began receiving a devastating blow by Ethiopian forces that the TPLF leaders for the first time, say they were willing to engage Obasanjo for his efforts towards a lasting solution.
The rainy season is fast approaching, and the TPLF is getting ready to restart the war. The Ethiopian government is working hard to deter and defend TPLF aggressions and bring lasting peace and stability for Ethiopia. Despite the noise of the war drums, many Ethiopians remain hopeful that there will be a breakthrough in the push for peace.
BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 8 JUNE 2022
