BY STAFF REPORTER
Part Two
In an interview with Zemen, monthly magazine that EPA publishes, Professor Al Mariam has elaborated on range of issues related to the ongoing meddling of some western governments especially the US and EU on the internal political affairs of Ethiopia.
The first part of his interview was published on Herald Guest page of The Ethiopian Herald, on Tuesday, 3 August 2021. The remaining part of his interview is presented as follows. Have a nice read:
If Ethiopia continues to face increasing pressure from some Western countries, could it be forced to turn its attention to countries like China and Russia? What will be the result?
There is an almost dogmatic belief among even well-informed people that Ethiopia’s existence, political stability and economic survival somehow depends on the approval or disapproval of the U.S. That is utter nonsense. In the post-Trump era, many things have changed. The world has seen the hollowness of the American government. Over 600 thousand Americans died because Trump ignored all the warnings and stubbornly refused to take action to mitigate COVID-19. Trump tore up the fabric of U.S. global hegemony implementing his “America First” foreign policy. The U.S. is no longer trusted nor respected throughout the world.
The American government cannot protect democracy, freedom, human rights, etc. in America. How can it protect them in Ethiopia or other parts of the world. The January 6 attack on Congress, the ignominious retreat from Afghanistan, the deep divisions in American society, the daily mass shooting in the U.S., the freedom of debate on social media, the lightweight individuals in critical positions of responsibility in foreign policy, including Blinken, National Security Advisor Sullivan and Susan Rice, etc. have proven to the world, America’s dominant role on the global stage is fading away fast.
The fact of the matter is the Biden administration through its toothless sanctions regime has forced the creation of a bipolar world system consisting of the U.S. and Western Europe contesting against and China, Russia, Turkey, Ethiopia, Iran, Venezuela and others.
If the U.S. continues with its mad crusade to marginalize and destroy Ethiopia, there is no doubt Ethiopia will seek and find strong friends and allies elsewhere. Ethiopia will not be forced to seek alliances with China and Russia. It will be a natural alliance created by a common enemy. It is a law of nature that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
A strong Ethiopia-China-Russia alliance will be beneficial to Ethiopia. First, Ethiopia can effectively counter U.S.-E.U. pressure and interference in its internal affairs. We have already seen that at the U.N. Security Council where repeated efforts by the U.S. to sanction Ethiopia have failed. Second, Ethiopia will be free to do its own thing free of U.S.-E.U. harassment, intimidation and bullying. Third, an alliance between the three countries will enhance Ethiopia’s role as a regional power since a strong Ethiopia will serve their mutual interests. Fourth, such an alliance will be a bulwark against those who seek to tread on Ethiopia’s sovereignty.
Did the TPLF’s ability to confuse the international community come from the Ethiopian government’s limited diplomatic capabilities or what should the short-term and long-term steps the government takes to improve its capacity to be greater than the TPLF’s structure?
Many countries have withstood Western military and economic pressure and continue to survive and thrive with their dignity and pride intact. One of the Founding Fathers of America, Patrick Henry, said, “Give me liberty or give me death.” Henry was talking about the oppression of British colonial rule in North America and the steely determination of the American revolutionaries to resist by any means necessary.
The fact of the matter is that America is much diminished in the eyes of the world after the Reign of Donald Trump. There are limits to U.S. military and economic power. In the past few days, there is talk in the media the U.S. has instructed The World Bank and the IMP to deny loans, grants, etc, to Ethiopia. In my view, that is just great. In April 2021, the World Bank agreed to extend $700 million in loans and $200 in grants to Ethiopia. I am not sure if the U.S. will stop that midstream. Regardless, the whole World Bank, IMF loan and grant business is nothing more than a debt trap. In February 2021, the IMF said Ethiopia’s economic growth is projected to be 2% in 2020/21, largely due to the effects of the coronavirus, but suggested it will rebound to 8.7% in 2021/22 in line with a global recovery.
The economic sanctions will have some effect but they will not make or break Ethiopia. The U.S and E.U. will use sanctions to the max. I believe when he going gets tough, the tough get going. Neocolonialism is a mighty enemy. But it can be defeated. In the Art of War, Sun Tzu advised, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
My response to Sun Tzu is this: “It is not the size of the dog in a fight that determines the outcome. It is the size of the fight in the underdog.” In the Western neocolonial war, Ethiopia is the underdog. Victory over the big dogs of neocolonialism is assured if Ethiopians know the strength of their enemy is their disunity and the weakness of their enemy is their unity. Ethiopia maintained its independence for thousands of years and was never colonized because they followed the eternal principle: ETHIOPIANS UNITED CAN NEVER BE DEFETAED! I believe Ethiopians will pay any price to maintain their sovereignty and independence.
Did the TPLF’s ability to confuse the international community come from the Ethiopian government’s limited diplomatic capabilities or what should the short-term and long-term steps the government takes to improve its capacity be greater than the TPLF’s structure?
The diaspora dregs of the TPLF have been able to wage an effective disinformation campaign against the Ethiopian Government and people. They have hired lobbyists and public relations forms to propagate a narrative of victimhood and persecution. The Western press-titutes such as the BBC, CNN and New York Times have carried the TPLF cause and tried to spark global outrage against Ethiopia. They have claimed the Ethiopian Government is using food as a weapon of war in Tigray, war crimes and human rights violations are rampant in Tigray and published other fake horror stories. The whole object of demonizing Ethiopia is to generate a groundswell of global outrage and condemnation by first enraging white people in the West.
The fact of the matter is that white people in America, Britain and Europe do not give a damn about what happens in what Trump called “s**it hole countries” of Africa.
On another level, the TPLF dregs have waged the propaganda war believing that the White Neocolonial Powerbrokers on their white horses will come and save them by pressuring Ethiopia with threats and sanctions. The TPLF accepts white supremacy lock, stock and barrel. Ethiopians do not care about white supremacy. One need only read Roma Prochazka’s 1935 book “Abyssinia: The Powder Barrel”, available free on the internet, to understand Ethiopians’ defiance against white supremacy.
The bottom line for me is this: What has all the TPLF demonization campaign in the media and the halls of Western governments accomplished? In the U.S., they got visa sanctions issued against unnamed persons. They got the Biden administration to deny so-called development and security aid. Apparently, at the request of the Biden administration, the World Bank and IMF will cutoff loans and grants. In the U.S. Senate, they got a toothless resolution passed. From time to time, they got paid-for representatives and senators to hold hearings and have a pity party while demonizing Ethiopia. I can imagine they spent many millions to obtain these results. In my view, it has been mostly bark and little bite.
The Ethiopian Government continues to battle the TPLF disinformation campaign with its timely Fact Check campaign, press conferences and press releases. Truth be told, the public diplomacy – influencing the different Western publics with accurate information and mobilization of support for Ethiopia in the West – should be the principal responsibility of the Ethiopian diaspora.
The Ethiopian Government does not have the kinds of resources diaspora Ethiopians have at their disposal. For instance, the Ethiopian Americans have access to their members of Congress and can engage in grassroots mobilizing to influence legislation and policy. We have access to effectively counter the TPLF-hired Western media by countering their fake news and disinformation on social media. We can mobilize local and community leaders to bring pressure on national policy makers.
But we have lacked considerably in this regard. The so-called diaspora Ethiopian intellectuals, by and large, are timid and lack self-confidence. They lack the dedication and self-discipline to undertake such a task on a consistent and robust basis. Now, contrast that with what the diaspora TPLF dregs are doing. They are punching far beyond their weight class. They are few but well organized. They have money stolen from the Ethiopian people over decades to buy influence.
Diaspora Ethiopians should learn from the diaspora TPLF dregs. Organize, mobilize and energize the base!
What do you think is the reason for the Western countries’ inclination to support the TPLF terrorist group rather than 100 million people of Ethiopia? What do they want from Ethiopia? What is Ethiopia lacking?
There are many reasons why the West is standing by the TPLF terrorists and against Ethiopia. First, the U.S. wants a comprador regime in Ethiopia, that is a regime that asks, “how high” when told to jump. For decades, the TPLF was a loyal lackey and jockey for the West fighting proxy wars and serving even as an overseer on the African continental plantation. Second, the TPLF is a proven weapon of mass division that can keep Ethiopia fragmented and weak. The U.S. abhors the very thought of a rising Ethiopia that is a regional anchor in the Horn of Africa.
Third, the TPLF is the only force that will sell Ethiopia down the Nile River without batting an eye. Egypt and the U.S. would love to have the TPLF in power because the TPLF will sign at the dotted line and turn over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to them. Fourth, a strong regional power in the Horn of Africa is a direct threat to the West. If Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and the other neighboring countries were to form an economic and political alliance, they could form a bulwark against Western neocolonialism.
How do you assess the fact that government forces have now left the Tigray region and retreated to Dejen? Do you think it will produce the desired results?
The Ethiopian National Defense Force has strategically withdrawn from parts of Tigray after declaring a unilateral ceasefire. As a student of military history and strategy, I believe the withdrawal is justified and proper. In my studies of military strategy, I have learned that waging a successful war requires attention to basic facts. A military operation must have a clearly defined and attainable objective. The Ethiopian Government launched a law enforcement operation to catch the ringleaders of the attack on the Northern Command in Tigray. It did not wage war on Tigray or the people if Tigray. The law enforcement objective was attained in three weeks. The vast majority of the top TPLF leaders were either apprehended or killed in battle. The core objective of the law enforcement action has been achieved.
Second, an offensive military action must exploit all opportunities available to it in the battlefield to defeat the enemy. In every battle, the ENDF achieved victory because it was able to exploit available opportunities, including drone technology, to neutralize the TPLF.
Third, having achieved its military objectives, the ENDF did not have a military justification to remain in Tigray as an occupying force. Fourth, when the ENDF made a tactical withdrawal, in my view, what it had done was retain concentrated combat power at decisive locations to maximize its flexibility to maneuver again the TPLF terrorists as needed. In fact, it did just that in Alamata and Raya Kobo area last week.
Of course, the TPLF will continue to engage in terrorist attacks and make claims of imaginary victories. The ENDF will also strike to degrade and destroy the TPLF’s capabilities to engage in terrorism. So, that game will continue. So will the suffering in Tigray under TPLF-U.S.-E.U. sponsorship.
What will be the fate of the people of Tigray who are trapped in the propaganda of the TPLF terrorist group?
The people of Tigray have been dangling between the devil and the deep blue sea for decades. The TPLF has made Tigeran children cannon fodder in its days in the bush and now by forcibly inducting child soldiers in Tigray to wage its terrorism. The TPLF has been amassing fortune in the name of the people of Tigray but the vast majority of the people in Tigray do not have potable water. The TPLF tells the people of Tigray their Ethiopian brothers are out to get them, kill them, commit genocide against them. They wage a daily campaign of fear and smear to create a siege mentality.
The fact of the matter is that the TPLF is to the people of Tigray as Al Qaeda is to Arabs. Al Qaeda does not in any way represent Arabs because it is a bloodthirsty terrorist organization. So is the TPLF and it does not represent the people of Tigray.
The destiny, fortune and misfortune of the people if Tigray is with the rest of their Ethiopian brothers and sisters. The people of Tigray have suffered under TPLF rule just as much as other Ethiopians. To free the Tigray people from the terrorist tyranny of the TPLF, rational and sensible Tigrean intellectuals and leaders must first and foremost stand up and speak truth to the TPLF. They must offer an alternative to the cult of the TPLF. History shows that cults always end in suicide. Staying loyal to the TPLF is suicide for the people if Tigray.
On the other hand, other Ethiopians must not indulge in the false equivalency that the TPLF and the people of Tigray are one and the same. As a matter of principle, we must treat each individual not as a member of a race, ethnicity, religion, etc. but as a human being with respect and dignity and tolerance. Of course, there will be some ignorant individually filled with arrogance who will take such treatment as a sign of weakness or even foolishness. Indeed, arrogance is a sign of weakness that invites retribution. Compassion and tolerance are not a sign of weakness, but a sign of strength. Love is the most powerful force in the universe.
All Ethiopians should practice the maxim, “Love thy neighbor as thyself.” To me, that means help your neighbor, show them you care; do not persecute them because of their ethnicity. After all, they did not choose to be born of one race or ethnicity. This is not going to be easy where there is so much prejudice, distrust and hatred. As they say, “Rome was not built in a day.” The Ethiopia the TPLF built on a foundation of ethnic division and hate for decades cannot be unbuilt in a day. But each Ethiopian can remove a brick of hate, a nail of distrust, a pillar everyday to tear down the house of hate and shame built by the TPLF and in its place build a hall of love and fame.
How do you think the people of Tigray will be affected not only by their Ethiopian brothers but also by their relationship with the people of neighboring Eritrea?
The TPLF is the enemy of not just the Ethiopian people but also the people of Eritrea. The TPLF launched missile attacks on Eritrea to regionalize and internationalize the war. But the Eritrean Government did not take the bait. They tolerated this brazen act of aggression. The TPLF has on various occasions threatened to overthrow the government of Eritrea and replace it with its own puppets. Of course, the TPLF is free to engage in fantasy.
The fact of the matter is that if push comes to shove, Eritrea will take appropriate action to eliminate any terrorist threat to its national security. The TPLF terrorists think America will protect them regardless of what they do. The bottom line is that if the TPLF forces the hand of the Eritrean Government, the TPLF will learn a lesson it will not forget. No country will stand still under attack by terrorists nor will it refrain from acting afraid of those who sponsor terrorists regardless of how powerful the sponsor is. The TPLF will do everything in its power to provoke Eritrea but that would be foolhardy.
How much do you think the TPLF terrorism and its continued threat to the region are in line with Egypt’s and Sudan’s twisting of Ethiopia’s hand?
The TPLF has long threatened that if it is not in power it will destabilize the entire region and wreak havoc. There is no doubt the TPLF is working hand in glove with Egypt and Sudan and the U.S. to do just that. Let me also note in passing that the November 3, 2020 attack on the Northern Command was undertaken with the knowledge, complicity and nod of the U.S. Government. The idea was on November 3, America will be preoccupied with its presidential election and a TPLF blitzkrieg attack would pass unnoticed until it became a fait accompli.
There is evidence which shows Tedros Adhanom plotting and scheming with Egypt to destabilize Ethiopia by sponsoring terrorism throughout Ethiopia. But that is a futile move. Sudan is about to implode. The Sudanese military and security forces are at each other’s throats. The Hamdok civilian government is in name only. Sudan is basically a military junta state facing enormous economic and military problems. The conflict in Darfur has flared up and will likely ignite a civil war. The situation in Abyei is equally dangerous. If the TPLF thinks Sudan will provide it arms or funnel arms to it, which is unlikely. If Sudan provides arms to the TPLF, it might get a taste of its own medicine. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. People who live in glass houses should not throw stones.
On the other hand, El Sisi is sitting on a powder keg which could go off at any time. The Egyptian military has been unable to defeat the militant group Wilayat Sinai, a local affiliate of the self-proclaimed Islamic State. He maintains a police state with 60 thousand political prisoners. Of course, the U.S. and E.U. are deaf-mute to the atrocities and human rights violations of the El Sisi regime.
So, after all is said and done and the neocolonial dogs have barked and bit, the Ethiopian camel shall continue to walk majestically, gracefully and self-confidently on the road called Unity and Prosperity.
Thank you!
The Ethiopian Herald August 7/2021
