The Grand renaissance dam project which was launched a decade ago is now nearing completion. Workers in the area have been working day and night without wasting a few minutes to show a glimpse of light in the coming months. On the other hand, some countries have been producing fabricated stories to defame the reputation and image of the country. In terms of diplomacy, they have been striving to convince the rest of the world with the wrong and fabricated story they produced. In connection with the nation’s diplomacy level, the influence of countries who stand against Ethiopia, the Ethiopia press agency reporters made a brief stay with Assistant Professor Shiferaw Mulleta, Professor at Ethiopian Development Studies. Excerpts:
How do you evaluate the ongoing diplomacy of Ethiopia? Similarly, how do you see Egypt’s diplomatic stance on the grand renaissance dam?As we all know, ten years have passed since construction at the GERD commenced. Diplomacy has been carried out between Ethiopia and Nile riparian countries. On Ethiopia’s side, it was going on within -the Nile Basin general framework. The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a partnership among the Nile riparian states that “seeks to develop the river in a cooperative manner, share substantial socioeconomic benefits, and promote regional peace and security”.
The NBI began with a dialogue among the riparian states that resulted in a shared vision objective “to achieve sustainable socioeconomic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources.” It was formally launched in February 1999 by the water ministers of nine countries that share the river: Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as well as Eritrea as an observer. Previously, the agreement made among these countries objected to the monopoly power and agreement made between Egypt and Sudan. It was diplomacy that objected to the colonial agreement.
All the Nile riparian countries including down riparian countries such as Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya and other countries have the right to use Nile water. These countries have been in hot debate citing that the colonial agreement is not fair. In the middle, the construction of GERD was commenced. When the GERD dam commenced, Ethiopia had better diplomatic capacity. Ethiopia needs the GERD to generate electricity and get its 60 percent of population from darkness hydro power without significantly harming the downstream countries.
While we see the diplomacy of Egypt, now the general construction hit 79 percent. Thus, it is near to completion. For the past ten years, Egyptians have been coming up with objections. Especially over the last three years, the diplomatic influence on Ethiopia is by far greater than other times. After knowing that they cannot stop the construction of the GERD, they spent more time on technicality issues. As Egypt is highly dependent on the river Nile, they especially raised various technical concerns in order to save their people from drought.
In Terms of diplomacy, Egyptians have been taking a better position. They have better topographical advantages that link them with Middle East countries such as Israel and western world. Due to the international diplomacy and national interest of their country, they have shown a tendency to incline for Egypt as considering that it would be the first country to be a victim of drought. In this regard, they considered Egypt as a victim.
It seems that Egypt is pressurizing Ethiopia through diplomacy. Egypt recently announced to its house of people’s representatives that the dam has not harm against it. Do you think this is genuine remark?
I don’t consider it a real behavior of Egypt. The speech of the foreign minister focused on pressuring Ethiopia not to operate the second filling of the dam. What Egyptians are interested in is putting a binding agreement which protects its interest. Now the dam is approaching. Thus, no one prohibited the dam from second filling. This truth may be understood by all parties.
The Declaration of Principles on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) signed on March 23, 2015 by Ethiopia Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, Egyptian President Al Sisi and Sudan president Al Bashir in Khartoum consists of 10 principles. The debatable issue here is the procedure of filling or not filling the dam.
They know that the Nile waters are released after generating electricity. They did not lose the amount of water they have been getting per year .The problem is not a technical one but a legal issue. The legal issue is binding one which leads to a water quota system agreement. What Egyptians desire is putting an article that limited others not to construct another dam on the Nile river basin? The Ethiopian government does not have any interest of this kind. So far, the government of Ethiopia has no interest to harm the interest of the posterity. Ethiopia has a rigid stance in this regard but it has no intention to harm Egypt and other countries. As it is specified in the negotiation, 99 percent technical is already confirmed. The interest of Egypt is to use the Nile water independently citing colonial agreements which were signed before.
Egyptian foreign minister may say if Ethiopia conducts GERD second filling, they have to reserve water so as to address the shortage. However, nothing has changed in Egypt’s diplomatic stance. We should not expect this from Egypt. They knew that the water held by the GERD dam will be released after it generates electric power via hitting the two turbines. Though the water they gained from Ethiopia during summer season declines, they can get the water in dry times after the two turbines are operational. No reason that forces the water to hold on. By and large, they will get the water at the end of the day. This is the reality they should understand.
Ethiopia has been developing its water resources in order to gain benefit out of it. However, in most of the western world they prefer to echo the voice of Egyptians instead of accepting Ethiopia’s truth of lighting 60 percent of its people residing in darkness. What do you understand from this?
One thing that should be understood here is, the world knows that Ethiopia is a country contributing 86 percent share to the river Nile. However, we couldn’t say that the downstream countries need not benefit from the Nile waters. Thus, when we talk of this resource, we confidently speak about the Nile that as is the issue of sovereignty, we have the right to use the natural resource we have. Apart from this, we have to increase our execution capacity.
The dam is used to generate electric power. Some 80 percent of the Ethiopian people are residing in the countryside. Let alone providing electricity to rural dwellers, we couldn’t fulfill the interest of all urban dwellers. By and large, the dam is instrumental to ensure growth and promote the life of people living within darkness and improve people’s livelihood especially women who have been going far to collect firewood day in day out. Egyptians on the other hand have better electric access. The dam will go to them after generating power. Apart from the issue of sovereignty, we have to present valuable points so as to convince the rest of the world. I think this is the point that remains in our diplomacy.
However, the western countries have their own national interest. The media and they have followed this root. The other thing is that as Egypt is geopolitically approaching Middle East or western world countries, it has a better stage than ours. The economic performance is also another decisive factor to make the diplomatic relations between the two countries.
Why do you think Egypt lost the interest to deliberate with African countries on matters related to Africans? What is the reason behind this?
It is clear and understandable for all. If you see its topography, level of status and the culture of Egyptians are highly correlated with Arab world. Secondly, African problems should be resolved by African solutions. Egypt has tried it for most, but she withdraws after understanding the result it would gain from the deliberation. However, she comprehends that taking the issue to the rest of the world makes her a beneficiary as she has a better place in respecting their national interest. Playing in the field outside of Africa is raising the negotiation capacity of Egypt and she highly pushed the issue outside. Most of the North African countries have no desire to cooperate with Africa counterparts. Cultural disparity or topography may be some contributory factors for this. In terms of economic cooperation also they do not have strong bonds with African countries, they instead have tight cooperation with western world.
Subsequent to the Kinshasa summit which was held on 2015 and concluded without consensus, it was recalled that the
Sudanese prime minister called both the Ethiopian and Egyptian prime ministers for discussion. Do you think the call would smooth the tension? What value will it add for diplomacy?
Indeed, the issue raised by Abdelah Hamdoc is found in one of the articles of the Nile Basin Initiative agreement that was signed by riparian countries in 2015. Unless the technical deliberations or the deal by water ministers get solutions, if there is an issue that requires the decision of leaders, the three leaders will appear in person without expecting the occurrence of a problem, it says. However, the technical discussion conducted by professionals is yet concluded. In the middle, the Somalia president makes a call for the leaders.
However, we understood that our Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed gave a good response for the call. As the technical issue has not ended, it has to deal with that first. The leaders of countries may not have knowledge about the technicalities. Sudan has been obviously playing its bellicose role. Will it have a severe impact on the GERD? It will have. They have an intention to transfer the border issues to GERD. For instance, Ethiopia has been constructing the dam within its own territory. The renaissance
dam is 20 kilometers distant from Sudanese border. However, Sudan representatives while they conducted interviews with international media outlets, they said Ethiopian state Benishangul Gumuz is part and parcel of Sudan. This seemed a mere joke, but it should not be taken and passed as a simple issue. There was a border dispute in the west Gonder area. It is easy to discover the distance between them. Converting the issue of border dispute to water issue is equal to claiming the big one and getting the small one. They tried to warn Ethiopia claiming GERD and planned to get the invaded land.
Ethiopia is committed to fill the dam as per the principle of declaration. No one prohibits Ethiopia to fill the dam. Will the disagreement of the two countries on the second GERD bring something new? What impact would it bring in the horn’s diplomatic process?
You are right! It would destabilize the horn. Especially Sudanese people are not cooperating with Ethiopia unlike before. They repeatedly witnessed the advantage of GERD in avoiding floods and ensuring normal flow of water. There may be various reasons why Sudan converts its longstanding strong cooperation with Ethiopia. Starting bilateral discussion with Egypt may be considered as one issue that forced Sudan to feel as marginalized to discuss on the matter. However, this is not taken as the lonely pushing factor.
Sudan’s change of perception towards Ethiopia comes subsequent to the government change in Sudan especially after president Al Bashir. If the dam is not realized, they will get the benefit gained from various bodies. If the dam is filled with water they can benefit. If they can get benefit from both sides, they decided not to put them in conflict with Egypt.
Are Egypt and Sudan really affected by the influence the dam will bring? What if Ethiopia quits the construction of the dam? Is there interest stopped by this?
The demand of Egypt and Sudan never stops even if Ethiopia stops the dam construction. The thing that all of us should know is that they need Ethiopia not to carry out any sort of construction in the river Nile. This sort of perception is long standing. They tried to invade Ethiopia to control the source of the Nile but it has not been realized.
Thank you for in depth explanation.
Thank you too.
BY GIRMACEHW GASHAW
The Ethiopian herald May 15/2021
