BY FITSUM GETACHEW
Part Two
We have always noted that Egypt has consistently claimed hegemony over the Nile waters; but no one can present a justification for such claim. No one can present a proof that the Nile is a property of Egypt! Narratives and rhetoric are something but reality and tangible facts another one. Perception and legend or myth is something, but the fact on the ground is another one because it is indelible. We just wonder who can tell this hard reality to our brothers and sisters of Egypt and Sudan. One could say: Forget the politicians because they trade in lies and enjoy stocking hatred and suspicion among peoples so that they continue to reign over citizens, undisturbed, and unhampered with their powers and privileges! Hence, we are not that much interested in engaging into vain and interminable arguments with Egyptian and Sudanese politicians who are still navigating in the ‘clouds of colonial days’. But what we need to address is directly the peoples of Egypt and Sudan, without intermediaries.
Today, it is possible to talk and engage with populations because politicians and presidents pass away while peoples continue, countries continue to live. And the objective of Ethiopians must be to talk directly with their neighbours. These brotherly peoples need to sit down and talk and not stock continuous propaganda that can only lead to annihilation.
Ethiopians stretch their peaceful and harmonious hands to Egyptians who we are confident have no interest in harming Ethiopians! Peoples never want to engage in conflicts; it is their ill prepared leaders who are often seen trying to gain out of such controversies also because the leaders never suffer directly from any conflicts. It is the common citizen that pays the price, bear the burden. That is why we stretch our hands to our Egyptian and Sudanese brothers and sisters.
‘Politicians have been telling you lies for centuries making you believe that the Nile is the personal, exclusive property of Egypt! Nothing is further than the truth than such a blatantly invented story! Because by any stretch of the imagination the Nile is not an Egyptian exclusive property! The fact on which we all agree easily is that Egypt has been enjoying full control and power over the resource; and for this to perpetuate it has used every means it has had at its disposal; from intimidation to outright wars and invasions, and threats that were always rejected with force when it was mandatory.
Egyptian politicians have always tried to interfere in the internal affairs of Ethiopia stocking hate and suspicion among Ethiopians in collaboration with some ‘Ethiopian mercenaries’. We have noted along the years every so called opposition party or politician has been helped to launch an attack on any government in Ethiopia including providing them with all sorts of assistance such as instruction, training, arms and ammunition and even vast quantity of hard currency. There have been traces of these means even in our recent crisis in the country. If they succeeded they would not even back from not only destabilizing Ethiopia but also possibly and probably have it divided into minor states. This would create a sense of security among Egyptian politicians in terms of guaranteeing the monopoly over the water of the Nile! It is clear that this could be the long term strategy of Egyptian politicians but they do not understand that this is crazy and wishful thinking.
Ethiopians will always resist such scenario from realizing because even if they could always fight among themselves on any quantity of issues, nevertheless when the threat comes from abroad, they immediately put aside their differences and rally behind their government no matter how they might detest it or do not agree with its policies. They have always done that and it is funny that Egyptian politicians are not well informed about it. They should never believe that they can defeat Ethiopians in their own backyards and ‘enjoy peacefully’ the water of the Nile! For sure this can never materialize as long as there is a single Ethiopian in any part of the world! No national of Ethiopia would accept to live in indignity and shame while being subdued by any alien force, never mind Egypt which lives on the subsidy and grants of certain foreign powers but even if it was the mightiest on earth, it would never happen! History must teach us many things and this is one of them!
We have learned from history that there have been several attempts to control ‘the origin of the Nile water’ using any means available, including force. ‘Expeditions’ have come and gone under various guises. Films have been made, stories have been written! Spies have been sent in multiple occasions and even drills of warfare were made in preparation of an eventual war with Ethiopia! Careful study of every valley and gorge on the Nile has been studied. But these are all hopeless propositions. They are doomed to fail as they did in the past.
Every possible military or hostile expedition that tried to infiltrate to Ethiopian highlands has been soundly defeated and had to return to where it came from! The history of contentions over the Nile is as old as the river itself. The ambitions of Egyptian leaders have never been curtailed. They have always had belief in their army or military but this is not the time to even ponder over such an idea! It is now time to cooperate and make the best use of every available resource in the world particularly among neighbours who share the same river!
No one believes that Egyptian politicians, be they hawks or nationalists to the limit, would venture in any use of force against Ethiopia to potentially secure the usage of the water because they would not be so suicidal and stupid! But along the years in more recent times, they have used every overt and covert means to block any project of Ethiopia on the Nile!
Egypt has used its diplomatic clout and its influence in the world of politics, in the world of finance and in the world of diplomacy. The ‘Nile issue’ is always in the back of the mind of every Egyptian citizen. But they never try to look at things from the perspective of the other nations involved in the issue. It is unfortunately only about themselves that they have worries about, only the Nile to live on and that they cannot survive without it etc. They never try to also look at Ethiopians who live in utter poverty and darkness and never tried to do something about it. Rather what they do is try to ‘perpetuate poverty and division’ in Ethiopia by financing those who work to that end, those so called Ethiopian political leaders with their own divisive and ethnic motivated agenda rather than consider the big reality, the big picture of Ethiopia!
And at the same time Egypt continued to build up all sorts of projects, both short term as well as long term, such as dams, canals, irrigation schemes. What is amazing is that they went even further by reportedly engaging with other countries to sell the water, for instance with Israel. All this was of course in disregard of any possible reaction by the true owners of the resource such as Ethiopia and other upper riparians. These it must be noted also have a stake in the water. It is a chain reaction because attacking in any manner Ethiopia is attacking all Nile Basin nations!
It may never have occurred to Egyptian demagogues that if they harm Ethiopians there would be a ‘chain reaction’ among the rest of east African countries! The African Union as well is a body that has a stake in such controversy, and that is why Ethiopia has been insisting that our problems must be resolved in ‘the context of African reality’ and not those superpowers who try to perpetuate their ‘neo-imperialist ventures’ over poorer nations such as Ethiopia! It has been repeatedly proven that none of the ‘traditional allies’ of Ethiopia have sided with Ethiopia when it came to the Nile issue and it is obvious that they have their own reasons, their own interests! The big fish in this case is Egypt. Ethiopia could very easily be thrown to the jaws of the big shark!
Ethiopians are not so naïve not to understand what is going on behind the curtain. That was why Ethiopia had to cover all the costs of the construction of its GERD project on its own! For decades Egypt has considered any country or financial institution that lent money to finance a dam on the Nile was deemed an enemy of Egypt!
Nations never wanted to engage in such affair preferring openly Egypt over Ethiopia, for various geopolitical and security reasons that may not be mysterious. ‘Westerners’ have always been led by their ‘national interests’ and not ‘principles. We have experienced that several times! No politician in Ethiopia is so simplistic or clueless as not to grasp this basic precept. We do not need to be geniuses of diplomacy to comprehend this point.
Suffice it to recall that repeated attempts were made by Ethiopia to secure a long term loan in order to develop the Nile basin; but this has always been aborted by the long arms of Egypt! How can one characterize such intervention of Egypt on Ethiopian internal affairs if not as ‘unjust and unjustifiable’? It is sad to note that instead of sitting together and helping solve the issue permanently in a cooperative spirit with their neighbours and brothers, Egyptian politicians have been married to the outdated political maneuvers of their forefathers and their former colonial maters! This tells us a lot about the fundamental mentality of Egyptian politicians and some of their ‘scholars’ who are left behind in history and still believe they can live by the rules of colonial and pre-colonial times!
May be few people know that Egyptian politicians never even dared to consult Ethiopians on how to use the water in communion in a manner that could benefit both countries and peoples. This was of course the most glaring failure on the part of successive Egyptian politicians who could not see further than their immediate benefits only, and never consider things in long term perspective. They wasted the water the way they felt like, as if it were a never ending resource, without doing anything to nurture the source of the water, or help maintain the climatic and environmental conditions in the Ethiopian highlands ideal for the continuation of the water of the Nile! They instead were bothered and busy hindering Ethiopia from using ‘not even a drop of it’ and try to keep busy Ethiopian politicians by trading hate and disputes among Ethiopians. The old political games they probably inherited from their former colonial masters! ‘Dividi et Impera’!
There can be no justification on earth for such behaviour of Egypt against Ethiopians who may have been viewed as the sleeping giant; but there was no doubt that sooner or later the giant would wake up of its deep sleep! Egypt may have always thought that Ethiopia would never present any threat to Egypt’s hegemony over the water of the Nile. This has been probably the biggest blunder on the part of a few narrow minded and myopic Egyptian politicians or military personnel! If the Nile is considered a matter of life or death for Egypt which they continuously argue about, they should also be ready to admit that they cannot guarantee Egyptians’ life by depriving Ethiopians from pursuing the same objectives. It is just a contradiction in terms. A people cannot hope to live at the expense of another people!
We must ask ‘if Egyptians believe they have the right to life, are there any legal precepts or principles which deprive Ethiopians of trying to pursue the same goals or rights!? Is it a crime to believe that what is true for Egyptians is also true of Ethiopians?
If Egyptian politicians were a bit wiser and less arrogant, if they were a bit forward looking and imaginative, they would have helped Ethiopia develop its resources better in a manner that could benefit both and beyond. If Ethiopia had the same clouts as Egypt, and the same mentality especially in the international arena, it would have used the Nile water as it preferred leaving only what remains of its usage; but this means behaving as the ‘arrogant Egyptians’ and this would only trigger a conflict. And no one knows who would benefit from any such scenario.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project is a carefully studied scheme that would eventually benefit everyone involved, directly and indirectly! It is a win-win project that has no intention to benefit only Ethiopia while at the same time incurring harm on Sudan and Egypt! Trying to obstruct the completion of the dam using every means available including engaging in a naked aggression against Ethiopia will only have serious geopolitical consequences. An attempt to destabilize Ethiopia and the sub-region would eventually only harm Egyptians rather than benefit them! It would also harm Sudan. It is perplexing how Egyptian politicians cannot figure out this simple scenario, this simple calculation! The only explanation could be the fact that they are prisoners of an outdated frame of mind and they struggle to come out of it. Even after years of intense and patient negotiations and explanations on the part of Ethiopia and international experts on the matter, Egyptian politicians still prevaricate from one position to another depending on their mood or the geopolitical developments in the region. The negotiators on the part of Ethiopia lament that these people continue to change as the notorious weather of London. Now sunny, now foggy, now rainy then calm and dry! In the meantime, they are continuously busy trying to sow seeds of division among Ethiopians by staging a huge propaganda and media smear campaign over Ethiopia’s intentions to harm Egypt. The recent measures taken by the major social media network Facebook taken against Egyptians is only the tip of the iceberg on what these people are capable of doing against Ethiopia! But they know the reality is not the way they put it. Ethiopia’s historical records show that its international reputation is nowhere what Egyptian politicians try to promote or make us believe!
Egyptian strategists do know that Egypt can never win a war against Ethiopia because it has never achieved that for centuries, although they have fancied it repeated times! This did not happen even when Ethiopians were poor and divided! Otherwise, they would have fought to the last drop of blood; but they know they cannot hope to achieve that in any viable and sustainable manner. They could win some battles but never the lasting war!
Today, the age is not one of confrontation but cooperation. This is also decreed by international pacts and treaties that nations continue to sign among themselves and these bodies. The AU and the UN are made for these purposes and several other similar global bodies. Circumstances dictate that the only solution to any crisis that emerges as a result of the GERD is negotiation with logic and reason, not threats and emotions or prevaricating, wasting precious time against Ethiopians’ interests.
What is very sad and discouraging is the consistently hostile policies Egyptian politicians have been advancing vis-à-vis Ethiopia, for centuries! This can only be explained as a result of their shortsighted lens, their narrow mindedness and their arrogance because they believe they can overcome Ethiopians militarily or they can keep it a poor and neglected land for good! But they need to wake up to the reality that there is no Nile water to which they are entitled exclusively, and in full hegemony, forever! They need to wake up to admit that the Nile is a river that originates in Ethiopia and from there flows to Egypt.
Ethiopia is entitled to its fair share without in any way endangering the vital interests of Egyptians. And to that end they have received ample and repeated guarantees from Ethiopian leaders. But under no circumstances can Egypt assert that it will continue to block Ethiopia from using the Nile! Ethiopia knows it cannot go any further than what international law and practice allows it to do. Ethiopia is very sympathetic of its Egyptian brothers and sisters. It is always anxious to cooperate with them but certain hurdles and prejudices need to be rid of by its politicians and leaders!
Making statements as have been made recently by the leaders of Egypt does not help nourish the kind of relations we want to build between Egyptians and Ethiopians! We do not need to harm the trust and confidence that one people has with others. It is unfortunate that political expediencies are the headache of certain politicians from all sides while the real issue is one of trying to address the problems of the peoples.
The Ethiopian Herald April 14/2021
