BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN
As far as Coronavirus is concerned, it somehow feels like we are back into the situation where we were a year ago. This month last year, the panic was running high among the public, and the media was busy with the Corona headlines and the announcements of the introduction of various Corona mandatory restrictive measures.
This week last year was the third week since the first Corona case was reported in Ethiopia. It was also the week when the first case fatality was reported and following that the states of emergency were declared. Schools, churches, and mosques had closed their gates, and intercity public transportation was suspended. People, young and old, forming small outdoor gatherings in their respective villages, had been holding prayer ceremonies, pleading for God’s mercy.
Now, a year later, with the resurgence of the pandemic, health, and legal authorities has reintroduced mandatory restrictive measures, and the media has reignited the awareness campaign on the Covid 19 prevention. These actions served as an alarm call to reawaken the public to quickly react to the looming threat of the pandemic’s surge. Oblivious to the fact the battle with Corona is far from over, the public have been in the state of ‘business as usual’ for several months until now, as if the Corona case is closed and dismissed.
The latest figures of the virus spread are indeed quite alarming, and justify the government’s recent actions. The nation’s COVID 19 infection rate has reached 25 percent, meaning one in four persons screened for COVID 19 tests positive. The Health Ministry confirms the nation has already crossed the staggering millstone 200,000 cases, with over 3000 case fatalities.
These figures could provide the government with an excuse to reinstate the state of emergency and strict lockdowns as it has been seen in other countries. However, the risk of introducing such austere measures far outweighs the benefits for a society like ours where the majorities have to struggle every day to win his/her daily bread. Moreover, the Ethiopian leadership has practically demonstrated alternative restrictive measures could well be effective in curbing the virus spread.
On the 7th week after the report of the first case of Coronavirus, the trajectory gradient of the virus spread was such that it continued to fall from 51.8 percent three weeks earlier, to 36.5 percent two weeks earlier and to 12 percent in the week before. There was even a day on that week, when no new case was reported, out of about a thousand tested individuals. Besides, there was no critical case during that week.
The result was the fruit of well-coordinated and broad-based participatory preventative measures. Initially, the fear-factor
also had contributed a lot in pushing the public to adhere to the health guidelines. Had that commitment to implement the restrictive measures continued by both the public and the institutions, we would not have regressed to the critical and panic situation where we find ourselves today.
Currently, the spread of the virus is spiking with a record number of daily new cases and fatalities. From the curve depicting the pandemic’s spread across the nation, it suffices to say we are now experiencing a second wave of the pandemic; the first wave had peaked during the final weeks of last October about a month after the end of the last rainy season.
It was after the advent of the rainy season that the first wave hit us hard. At that time, we saw a record daily death toll almost of equal magnitude to that of the current situation. The festive season in September that followed the rainy season was an additional factor that contributed to the exacerbation of the first wave. When would the present wave reach its peak? Hard to tell, as there are many factors at play.
The major issue that may explain the present surge is undoubtedly the negligence of the public in dropping their guard against the virus and the complacency of institutions in the backsliding from their commitment in practicing the Covid prevention directives. The probable additional explanation for the intensity of the second wave could be the new more aggressive variant of the virus that may have entered the country.
Until the revitalized introduction of the mandatory restrictive measures two weeks ago, it has been common to see people in recreation centers and public offices crammed together without taking appropriate personal protection. Especially in regional towns, it was easy to discern that people in public places [like markets and streets] without a mask outnumber those who care to cover their faces with whatever they can afford even with shawls and scarves.
I have personally observed several cases of violation of the Covid restrictions in the transport sector. Especially, the intercity transport system, which caters to thousands of passengers across the country each day, is one of the major areas of the sector calling for strong action. That is so because transporting passengers with no masks in airtight vehicles with all their windows closed for several hours would create an ideal condition for the virus transmission between individuals.
We hope that the reintroduction of the mandatory preventive measures would stamp out the above-mentioned and other irresponsible practices that are contributing immensely to the spread of the virus. Speaking of the directives, a senior expert with the Health Ministry commented recently: “we are not issuing a new directive; rather we are toughening the implementation of the existing directive [directive 30/2020] for the prevention and control of Covid 19 that was in enacted last October. We have to act aggressively with the active participation of every section of the society to arrest the pandemic before it spirals out of control, and our health system collapsed.”
According to the directive, it is prohibited for any person [except minors under 6 and those with respiratory issues] to be found without a mask anywhere outside his residence. The directive states several obligations of not only individuals but institutions. For instance, institutions are obligated by the directive to refuse service for customers not complying with the directive, like not wearing masks.
The strict implementation of the directive is all the more crucial at this moment, given the challenging seasons ahead of us. First, we are approaching the hectic major festive season where major holidays by both Muslims and Christians are celebrated. It is to be recalled that it was after this festive season last year the trajectory of the virus went insanely steep. After the Easter holiday season came another challenging period, the cold rainy summer.
On the flip side, we have a strong cause for optimism. As of early last month, the vaccination rollout is being conducted with impressive speed across the nation. Health sector workers, seniors, and the vulnerable with related health issues which account for about 3% of the nation’s population are currently the prioritized section of the society getting their first jabs.
We are keeping our fingers crossed that nation would get enough supply of vaccine doses required to vaccinate a large section of the population enough to achieve herd immunity before it is too late. In terms of the number of active cases as well as critical cases, Ethiopia is currently the African nation most affected by the pandemic. We hope that the calculus of vaccine distribution among African counties would factor in Ethiopia’s exceptionally dire situation.
Leaders of the rich countries and heads of international agencies are passionately reiterating to us: no one is safe until everybody is safe. But they make themselves scarce from global initiatives for enabling Africa to get enough amounts of vaccines. Under such circumstances, Africa’s best bet would be the strict implementation of prevention measures rather than vaccine rollouts.
The Ethiopian Herald April 14/2021
