BY HENOK TADELE
Since its opening in 1859 Egypt’s Suez Canal has always been a vital trade artery for international trade between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. Currently some 12 percent of the global trade pass’s through this Canal. According to the Canal Authority even during the Corona pandemic related international economic slowdown the annual revenue of the canal has surpassed 5.6 billion US dollars. Hence, the post Corona outlook of the canal will indeed be very bright as international trade between the east and the west will continue to sour for many decades to come.
The canal not only become a major foreign currency earner for Egypt but also gave it a strong leverage on international trade and politics. In 1956, shortly after Egypt nationalized the canal it closed it to the then arc enemy Israel for nearly two decades. The blockage was a major concern for Jerusalem that, according to declassified CIA documents, it had secretly holds several rounds of negotiation with the US to dig an alternative canal through the heart of Israel though the plan never come to fruition.
It is also in our recent memory that following the Arab Israeli war Cairo has totally shut down the Suez Canal for international travel for nearly a decade that is solely as a reprisal against the rest of the world for not adequately standing against Israel. The lesson painfully learned was Egypt could in any given time close the canal on any country if it deems it important. That sort of economic reprisal is something any country wanted to avoid with Egypt as Cairo proudly owns the only shortest passage way between the two major seas.
Over the years several shipping companies are complaining that Cairo keep exponentially increasing the toll rate and relevant docking charges for passing through ships over the canal. The price hick is arguably as a result of its total monopoly over the canal among other things. The world doesn’t have any other option, so has to pay whatever the Egyptian Canal authority demands.
However, the recent 6- day blockage of the Suez Canal due to the March 23th EVER GIVEN incident has clearly shows the need for an alternative passage way, be it for purely economic or even for geo political reasons.
According to some reports talks of reviving cold war era alternative plans for a new canal is now resurfacing. Among them is the long forgotten Ben Gurion canal, which was an Israeli –American plan to open another canal through Southern port of Eilat, past the Negev Desert to all the way to the Mediterranean Sea. Some reports are indicating that United Arab Emirates are currently on secret talk with Israel to develop that canal.
My argument is that, in many ways, more than any other country except Israel itself, the canal would serve Ethiopia’s best interest than any other internal big projects. The benefits spans in many fronts including economic, geo-politics, security and international relations. Therefore, Addis Ababa shouldn’t seat ideal on this matter but needs to quickly join Israel and any other party who is keen to jointly develop the canal. Yes, it would be a very expensive proposal that might easily surpass 9 billion USD, roughly two billion dollar more than the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).However; the economic gain from the new canal would undoubtedly far outweigh the expense as the project soon will turn profitable, besides the expense would be shared between the co-developers.
In my humble opinion efficiently designed 21 century new canal in Israel could easily collect somewhere between 3-6 billion a year in the near future, as international trade between the east and the west is continuing to soar.
If Israel revives the Ben Gurion canal project it will add significant revenue to its economy. It will help it to even more diversify the economy. It will also create thousands of new jobs and will help it to develop new strategically important cities around it. More than anything else it improves Israel’s stance on international stage thereby revamps its national security; rather it would become its anchor of peace.
Regarding Ethiopia, co-developing the Ben Gurion canal with Israel could help it earn more revenue, minimize its dire foreign currency shortage, enables it finance many other hydro power and irrigation projects back home over the Nile, thereby insuring universal access to electricity and food security.
It will also put it right at the center of international trade. Hence, will give it a more powerful international leverage to pursue its long sought water resource development agendas and at the same time minimizes Egypt’s leverage on the international community to launch international pressure against Ethiopia’s water resource development schemes.
Even if the project doesn’t profit much, it will give Addis Ababa a strong leverage to correct historical injustice by mainly Egypt against Ethiopia’s inalienable right of using its share of the Nile water.
Regarded as the water tower of Africa, Ethiopia contributes some 86 percent of the Nile water that reaches Egypt. However, Cairo and Khartoum have long been denying Addis Ababa’s right to use its share of water resource no matter how Ethiopia push equitable utilization agendas.
For decades Egypt’s massive lobbying campaign on international level has successfully hampered Egypt’s success to pressure the international community and international financial institutions mainly emanates from two basic reasons. One, its long perceived leadership role in the Middle East, now this role is increasingly weaning as new powerful countries are emerging in the Middle East, and two, the importance of its Suez Canal in the world trade.
Hence, the second one remains. Since the Suez Canal is the shortest passage way between the Mediterranean and Red Sea, any country that antagonizes Egypt would fear to lose its access to the canal. This for Ethiopia means in the eyes of the international community Egypt’s saying is always more important than Ethiopia’s no matter how unjust and incorrect it is. The result is, over the last five decades no matter how lucrative Ethiopia’s projects are on the Nile, western or even some eastern financial institutions have always kept shying away from financing them.
Luck of finance to develop the Nile River in Ethiopia has always been a source of food insecurity. The great famines of Ethiopia in the 70’s and the 80’s have reportedly killed more than 1.5 million people. Irrigation projects like that of in Egypt and Sudan would have saved at least a million lives.
Even at this stage Egypt’s stance on clinging onto its perceived and deeply flawed historic water right narrative coupled with the vagaries of climate change could make biblical proportion famines highly likely in Ethiopia at any given time but not Sudan and Egypt as the river continues to flow. It seems for Cairo and Khartoum Addis Ababa is the only party destined to face the brunt of nature including famine while it is expected not to touch a drop the water under any circumstances.
After several unfruitful trials to get finance from international financial institutions to develop its share of the Nile water for irrigation or at least for solely hydro power the leadership of Addis Ababa has learned that it has to develop its water resources from its own meager resource. The result was the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is currently a massively public supported project anywhere in the world. Even though the dam is nearing fait accompli Cairo’s propaganda bull horns are keep loudly blowing war trumpets.
Some westerners fear that an all-out Ethio-Egypt war over the Nile resource would kill many people. However, in the street of Addis many people thinks that Egypt’s war of lobbying against Ethiopia’s planned irrigation projects over the Nile have already killed millions of Ethiopians by way of famine. Real conventional all-out war with Egypt would undoubtedly kill far less people than biblical proportion hunger. In my opinion that is the reason why many Ethiopians are not that scared of Cairo’s daily trait of war.
Anyway co-developing the Ben Gurion canal with Israel and other party will definitely be a multi-pronged approach to check mate Cairo and minimize its strong lobbying power against Ethiopia’s water resource development aspirations. For Ethiopia that canal is much more than any current internal economic project, it would be a master key to freedom.
In light of the current Arab pivot to Israel most Middle Eastern countries especially Saudi Arabia would also benefit highly from the Ben Gurion Canal as it undoubtedly place Neom, Riyadh’s new ultra-modern business and tech city, at the very center of international trade.
Therefore Dr, Abiy Ahmed’s administration should think out of box. Run a full swing to join the talk with Israel and if need be behave well in the UN summit regarding the issues of Israel.
The writer is a veteran journalist whose experience spans well over a decade. His journalistic career starts at Ethiopian News Agency, become a Media Affairs Consultant to FEACC then served as a News Editor to Addis TV, Which is a satellite TV based in Addis. He can be reached by email: henok_9@yahoo.com
The Ethiopian Herald April 14/2021
