BY FITSUM GETACHEW
You hear people say that the country is passing some worrying days because it is challenged by multiple problems. Since three years ago with the advent of a new administration it has been repeatedly asserted that the country is clearly in a state of transition; many prefer the phrase ‘it is at cross roads’.
The fact that the exact direction of its journey is not yet known or determined or settled makes things even more complex, possibly unpredictable and even worrying for some because the alternatives could be contrasting between themselves. The choices could be multiple and even divergent.
Just to give an instance, who would have imagined or predicted that a party called TPLF with all its pedigree of the past decades would make all the decisions it has taken over the past years and finally reach such a dead-end or point of no return?! Who would have predicted that things would deteriorate to such an extent that the ‘final throw of the dice’ has been carried out between the federal government and the regional government of Tigray and create such scenario as we are living now?!
There is no doubt that this latest development is absolutely a game changer so to speak in the political scenario of the country, both in the short run as well as in the long run. The implications are of such enormity that it is bound to change the way we think of politics in our country.
Many people may consider this new development involving the reaction of the Federal government vis à vis the regional government of Tigray as a simple or mere ‘law enforcement operation’. The official definition of the operation is ‘law enforcement campaign’; and it is hard to contradict such expression given the background to the decision.
However, this definition does not give us the entire picture particularly to those who have little familiarity with our politics and those who have been at the receiving end of a certain narrative on the part of supporters or sympathizers of the TPLF.
Many argue that the federal government had no choice but to resort to the operation given the gravity of violations that took place in the regional state by the local administration.
This was in a way attempted earlier in the Somali Regional State and the operation restored law and order fairly speedily. A legitimate question would be: Why is the case with Tigray Regional State so complicated and long potentially with more unpleasant consequences for both the region as well as the entire federation? This has something to do with the recent history of the country and the way politics has been conducted. Obviously there are no quick fix or simplistic solutions to this problem.
The biggest challenge for any government in Addis Ababa will be convincing the residents of the region and all those who may have had sympathies for the party that the government is not doing all that it is doing because of any scores to settle or an act of revenge as many would like to depict it. This would further complicate things and play against the federal government.
The relations between the region and the federal state should not be allowed to deteriorate to such a level as to prompt outright rejection of any form of reconciliation or compromise with the federal government.
People should be convinced that the party that was supposed to liberate the inhabitants of the region out of suppression and misery once upon a time had in fact been engaged in a series of corrupt practices that were aimed to enrich only its internal hierarchies and not care too much about the large masses.
If the federal government cannot prove that with tangible evidence and show how TPLF was in a way an enemy of the people for whom it had begun its struggle and with whose endorsement it reached this level of power and reputation, then it would be arduous to secure their support, let alone loyalty.
There are many in the region who consider the ongoing campaign in the regional state as an ‘infringement to their legitimate rights’. These are people who had no other exposure than the literature peddled by the TPLF hierarchs.
And it would be hard to blame them for their state of mind. People are induced to believe what they have been continuously instructed to believe because the authorities were able to produce even video clips and other evidence falsely fabricated and narratives that suit the tastes of the people.
We know from history books that authoritarian governments have an immense weakness for propaganda and they are careful and well prepared to peddle narratives that are palatable to their subjects because they always appeal to their emotions.
This has proved effective in many cases. That is why it is more complicated than we can imagine when it comes to conquering the hearts of a generation of people who were born and brought up under one, single party dominion, feeding on a flood of false narratives.
Almost fifty years of one party rule or dominion is not simple to dismantle and it takes a lot of time and efforts to rectify things. That is why the approach of the federal government is advised to be cautious and be very sensitive to the emotions of those who in one way or another were obliged or convinced to give allegiance to a party that currently is as good as done and dusted.
It could be very upsetting for these people and in a way even humiliating to have your ‘idols’ or ‘heroes’ get crushed both materially as well as morally. What are the alternatives now they could inquire? Where do we go from here because we are now in uncharted territory as the saying goes? It is unprecedented in many ways and from every perspective. It takes the regional state back fifty years; it takes the entire country the same number of years.
The relations between this region and the government in Addis Ababa, be it in a federal system setting or a unitary one, it is new and needs sober reflection and above all discussions with all stakeholders. There are no shortcuts and the fact that the country itself is at cross roads given the transition period persisting and things have yet to settle, this latest problem complicates further the political scenario.
There are other issues in the country currently and it will take a lot of efforts and capacity to handle them all according to the urgency of the problems.
It is true that the priority of fighting illegality or thwarting the attempt to subvert the constitutional order by illegal and violent means should be given the maximum focus, as indeed it was.
This was an issue to solve, without alternatives. It was something that could not be differed to any future timetable. It was urgent and it had to be taken care of promptly. Luckily it appears that the first phase is now nearing completion.
The government says that it is rounding up all those involved in the infamous attack of the Northern Command and at the same time it is trying hard to restore law and order among the society.
But it is a daunting task that cannot be carried out successfully without the full and active participation of the population and given that normal life is still not completely restored, there is need to do just that before any other moves.
Residents must be made to reacquire faith and trust in the new ‘interim administration’ without ordering them to commit politically. It would be natural if they felt suspicious of what would happen to them now that what used to be ‘their party’ is gone.
If they consider the new administration as ‘enemies’, (and there are many who sympathize with the past trying to depict such a picture in the minds of people) it will make the efforts of bringing back stable life in the region very hard.
That is why it becomes imperative to show on the ground and in practical terms that peace and stability is restored and that people’s confidence in the administration is recovered. At the same time, rounding up all those who took part in the treacherous move made against the federal forces must be a prime priority and all the indications are directed towards that goal.
In the mean time, there are no doubts that the government will be overburdened with so many other activities as well. Given that we are in an election season there could be activities that are made to make the critical election a success.
Similarly the government needs as well to address other security issues in various parts of the country that could be reactions to what is going on in the north.
The diplomatic battle with neighbouring countries is also something that takes a lot of time and efforts from the federal government. Limiting the repercussions of the situation evolving along the Ethio-Sudan border is an important homework for the government in particular and the nation as a whole.
Border disputes are not a rarity in Africa. In fact, several African countries having inherited the demarcations arbitrarily made by the colonialists many of them have issues and are not content with the arrangements.
But the Organisation of African Unity, OAU, which is the precursor to the current AU has put in its charter that all borders must remain untouched and that only through negotiations and agreements could the status quo be changed.
What we came to find out recently concerning the Ethio Sudan border has deserved the condemnation of all those who have the stability and peace of the sub-region at heart. Ethiopia has given priority to round table discussions rather than emotionally react and respond tit for tat thus escalating the case to uncontrollable limits.
The peoples of the two countries are linked with too many years of peaceful cohabitation and cooperation sharing so much of common heritage and all prospects of more cooperation to be easily engulfed in fratricidal conflict. We have always seen that wars do not resolve issues on a permanent basis even if they may create a semblance of temporary victory or solace.
Both Ethiopia and Sudan need to focus more on resolving the problems of the peoples of the two countries and improve their standard of living rather than engage in hostilities that would only aggravate the hardship of the peoples.
This is a major challenge for the government because in the face of naked aggression it cannot afford to stay put as if nothing significant has taken place. On the other hand, it is known that the option of a major assault to return back to the status quo ante may lead to major losses on both sides that are not worth sustaining.
That is why diplomacy must take center stage and eliminate the option of using force. Sudan should realize that the ‘gamble’ was not advisable and has all the time to rethink its move because the consequences could be undesirable.
That is why the Ethiopian government is pressing for the reassertion of the principle that African solutions should be developed to solve African problems and this is a typical African challenge that needs to be ironed out by the two countries without the interference of others who may try to fish in troubled waters.
The geopolitical situation of the two countries may invite other stakeholders to the scene and this will not be to the advantage of any of the two countries. That is why they need to ponder on the case very carefully.
The Ethiopian Herald February 4/2021
