Smart and Not-So-Smart People Smart people are of two kinds: those who are themselves smart and those who know a smart person when they see one. On the other hand, the not-so-smart people and those who wonder at how smart people do things so persistently, so fast and efficiently without apparently making much effort while they themselves would struggle to perform those same things.
The whole of human civilization was triggered and developed by smart people from Aristotle to Darwin, from Adam Smith to Karl Max, from Isaac Newton to Albert Einstein, from Leonardo Da Vinci to Pablo Picasso, from Nikola Tesla to Stephen Hawking, and so on.
These giant mortals were not just smart, they were deeply and persistently so! It is still a scientific mystery how these people were so different from other people as to make so much of a difference in our world and our lives. Talking glibly about IQ differences would not be a satisfactory explanation. For example, is IQ a fixed quantum or does it have some kind of plasticity? How much is it determined by nature and nurture? If the DNA of the human species is ninety-nine percent identical, how could a point zero one percent (0.01%) genetic difference make so much variation in intellectual performance and achievement?
But it is a glaring fact of reality that there are smart and not-so-smart people in the world including in Ethiopia. Such people are found in every walk of life and every discipline, in science as well as in politics, economics, business and law. In Ethiopia and in politics Haile Selassie is emerging to be the best political leader since Minilik in comparison with Mengistu, Meles, and Hailemaiarm. The Emperor predicted as much when he was deposed by the Derg in 1974.
He is said to have predicted thus: “If you do better than I (We) did, your fame will rise and mine will fall, but if you do worse, mine will rise and yours will decline.” There is no better testimony to the Emperor’s wise prediction than the fact that his statue has now been erected on the premises of the headquarters of the AU in Addis Ababa! In Ethiopian politics leaders have held power on the basis of royal lineage under a political dynasty or by direct force of arms as has been the case since Emperor Haile Selassie.
In the long line of the royal dynasty there were quite a few smart leaders including Atse Amdetsion, Zeraycob, Lalibela, Minilik and Haile Selassie. Since the overthrow of the monarchy, however, there has so far not been a leader worthy of the epithet. Mengistu fled the country after his army was decisively defeated by secessionist rebel groups from Eritrea and Tigray provinces.
The Meles regime disintegrated, fragmented and ransacked the country. Hailemaram vowed to continue Meles Zenawi’s legacy and tried to do so until his forced resignation in March 2018. On the other hand, it is rather too early to pass judgment on Dr. Abiy Ahmed. Smart People and Political Power The sole rational purpose of political power in a poor and backward country like Ethiopia should be to bring about economic and social development. It goes without sayingthat smart people are much better at doing that than not-so-smart people. But in poor and backward countries such as Ethiopia smart people do not normally seek political power because of the high risks it involves.
They put too high a value on the human brain to blow it up with a gun just for the sake of grabbing political power. So, they keep on waiting until they are chosen by the other group of smart people, namely those who recognize smart people when they see them. But such people are in the minority just as they themselves are. Hence, majority-based democracy does not work for them.
Well, it would not be too vicious an aspersion on the Ethiopian people if one were to say that the vast majority inhabit the not-so-smart domain, if for no other reason than that they have not been well-educated and trained. Hence, it is normally the not-sosmart people who contend for political power even if that means sacrificing their lives in the process. Meles Zenawi shot his way to power, losing many of his comrades-in-arms in his armed struggle for political leadership. As we know now, he turned out to be an “evil genius” instead of a benevolent dictator in the mold of Deng (China) and Lee (Singapore).
PM Abiy Ahmed has promised to give the Ethiopian people (the not-so-smart) a chance to elect their leaders in a free and fair election under the same constitution that was designed and crafted by the “evil genius”. This constitution does not recognize the Ethiopian people as one people, but as a group of different peoples divided and spatially compartmentalized on the basis of ethnicity. Globally, Ethiopia is known and recognized as one country with one people ruled and governed equally under the same Ethiopian law, but in reality in Ethiopia there are states within a state.
Even under such a political arrangement smart people (those who are themselves smart and those who recognize smart people) could win the election if they are not intimidated by the potential use of force and not cheated by vote-rigging and other subterfuges. What smart people could do is, choose a smart person from each major ethnicity-based political party and form a political front a la EPRDF and confront the latter in the upcoming election. For example, Prof. Birhanu Nega (Arbegnoch Ginbot 7), Prof. Merera Gudina (OFC/Medrek), Dr. Aregawi Berhe (Tigray), Ato Daud Ibsa (OLF), Ato Yeshiwas Assefa (Semayawi), etc.
.could form a group of smart people to face off the now depleted EPRDF/TPLF side whose only bragging rights can come only from the charismatic Abiy Ahmed, who incidentally looks anachronistic in the group. Meanwhile, election campaigns should begin immediately, the strategy being smart people educating the Ethiopian people about the advantages of electing smart persons such as Prof. Birhanu Nega, Prof. Merera Gudina, Dr. Aregawi Berhe, etc. They should tell the voting masses that “smart” is used only in its positive sense and that it really means “benevolently smart”.
It means giving all the Ethiopian people without distinction all the freedom they so richly deserve; giving them free the land on which to build their homes; granting them legally valid title deeds on their farm plots; providing them equal access to quality education and to bank credit to create their own job opportunities; redressing past economic and political injustices; and so on.
Ethiopia Not Lucky Enough to Have Smart People in Power Many reasons have been adduced for Ethiopia’s poverty and backwardness, including lack of trained manpower, unwillingness to reform the land tenure system, low savings, foreign exchange shortage, cultural fatalism, etc. But the fact of the matter is that the basic reason is the failure of the Ethiopian people to bring smart people to power. Of course, it is a truism to say that smart people are the best persons to solve the country’s multifarious problems, but they must have political power to do this. Political power is the instrument with which they can mobilize resources to implement their smart ideas.
No smart person with political power would stand idly by when flocks of Ethiopians struggle to jam into a minibus to go from Arat Kilo to Piassa. He would first wonder: “Why can’t they walk such a short distance, if only for physical fitness?” Well, that may be an unhealthy lifestyle choice, but the fare is far too cheap at 1.50 Birr which is less than five U.S cents! That would give smart people an idea to solve the problem. Smart people do not tolerate corruption, white elephant mega projects, power cuts, gapping income and wealth inequalities, grinding poverty, excessive inflation, currency depreciation and devaluation, crippling foreign exchange shortage, massive saving/investment gaps and trade and balance of payments imbalances, etc. Above all, smart people hate people who try to get rich without adding a penny to the GDP.
On such matters, smart political leaders turn to their fellow smart economists for technical help and advice. Smart people, irrespective of their professions, understand each other perfectly well because they use the same logical operating system in their thinking process. When a smart economist tells a smart politician that the latter should get his policy on the factors of production (i.e. land, labor, capital and enterprise) right to synergize them into actual production and productivity, he is almost certain to nod in total agreement.
The smart politician knows that it is the freedom of thought and expression in politics that has enhanced the social science of economics of people and things. At any rate, there is no chance of putting the Ethiopian economy on a sustainable development footing unless smart people come to power and change the constitution which has clearly been an obstacle to economies of scale, labor and capital mobility and an unsegmented domestic market.
A land policy that mainly serves as an instrument of an outdated patronage system, an education system that produces semi-illiterates and a banking sector that excessively indulges in currency printing and fractional money creation cannot be tolerated by smart people in power. A Practical Way to Put Smart People in Power in Ethiopia We must first understand that putting smart people in power is a process that can be improved over time. But we must begin somewhere to trigger the process with what we have at present. Benevolent smart people rarely shoot their way to power because they hate violence like poison.
So, we should all count on PM Abiy Ahmed’s promise to hold a peaceful, free and fair election sometime in 2020. We should be very grateful to PM Abiy Ahmed for kindly appointing the reliable W/t Birtukan Mideksa as Chairperson of the National Electoral Commission. The next task would be to assess the political contenders for power on the political stage at the individual level. As is well-known, the most outstanding personalities in this respect are: Prof. Birhanu Nega, Ato Andargachew Tsig, Ato Ephrem Madebo, Ato Neamen Zeleke, Dr. Tadesse Birru, Prof. Merera Gudina, Ato Bekele Gerba, Ato Daud Ibssa, Prof. Beyene Petros, Ato Yeshiwas Assefa, Ato Obang Meto, Ato Teshale Sebro, Ato Girma Bekele, Dr. Aregawi Berhe, Ato Abraha Desta, etc.
These political figures are assumed to be relatively smarter than the TPLF/ EPRDF (or EPRDF/TPLF) incumbents who still insist that the upcoming election must be held on the basis of the existing badly flawed constitution. The opposition groups cannot help but agree with the incumbents because what they have is not gun power but knowledge power! It goes without saying that knowledge power will win hands down in any free and fair election but how can we trust gun power!? But as things stand now, we must, because there is no choice! Rather, the opposition groups should use their knowledge power to devise smart ways to beat the TPLF/ EPRDF (or EPRDF/TPLF) coalition in the election.
They should organize themselves on the same model as the incumbents, i.e., as a coalition or front. In the absence of force or force-aided vote- and ballot-rigging knowledge should win over nonknowledge or relative ignorance, and, this, unfortunately, is the source of the risk that the EPRDF/TPLF may revert to its old tactics of repression and suppression.
A coalition of Arbegnoch Ginbot 7, OFC/MEDREK, Dr. Aregawi’s organization, ABIN of Amhara Killil etc. are expected to win majority votes in Addis Ababa and other cities, in Oromia, in Amhara, in Tigray, in the South, etc., ensuring a landslide victory for the opposition group. After their victory, the reputation of political contestants such as Prof. Birhanu Nega, Prof. Merera Gudina, Dr. Aregawi Berhe, etc. would be on the line unless they promptly proceed to prove themselves to be smarter than their predecessors in terms of delivering on their lofty political and economic promises. They would have to get the constitution amended and ratified by the new parliament and by the people in a referendum.
Of course, human and democratic rights should be further guaranteed; victims of political repression should be properly compensated; progressive economic policies should be put in place; in this respect, priority should be given to repatriation of ill-gotten gains hidden in foreign lands; confiscation and nationalization of domestically based financial and non-financial economic assets obtained through all manner of corrupt practices should be promptly effected; land, education and training, banking and credit policies should all be drastically reformed.
Well, there are lots and lots of things smart leaders can do in Ethiopia if they really want to be remembered as immortally great people like Deng of China and Lee of Singapore. Quality education and training, equitable land distribution, sound monetary and fiscal policies, judicious use of foreign direct investment, appropriate state intervention, excellent agricultural and industrial development policies and strategies, etc. should catapult Ethiopia to the status of middle-income country in no more than ten years from now.
Many Ethiopians may not know where their country stands at present, what with the deafening development propaganda that has been trumpeted by the state media. Whether we believe it or not, Ethiopia is still stuck below the internationally agreed poverty line of 1.90 USD per day! Concluding Remarks Smart leaders do not blame lack of trained manpower, shortage of foreign exchange, technological backwardness, etc for Ethiopia’s poverty and underdevelopment, because these are themselves the problems of poverty and backwardness to be systematically and methodically solved by smart people.
So, the basic problem is the lack of smart people in positions of power. However, such people are not normally inclined to grab power by force, as hinted above. But, they are likely to come forward if they are sure there is going to be a free and fair election.
Of course, it takes a smart leader to be willing to hold a free and fair election. Let us trust PM Abiy Ahmed to be that smart leader. He has appointed W/t Birtukan Mideksa, a thoroughly smart person, as the Chairperson of the National Electoral Commission. The voters are, of course, the people who are not-so-smart for lack of proper education.
Hence, it is incumbent on those who are smart enough to recognize smart people when they see them to try and teach the people how to elect smart candidates. In a genuinely free and fair election, both types of smart people (i.e., people who are themselves smart and those who can recognize smart people) will normally join contesting parties or organizations, thus trying to sell their ideas and themselves to the voting people.
The voting masses should therefore be wary of inherent flaws of smart people. They may be verbally smart but may be found to be lacking when it comes to action. They may also suffer from excessive egoism which could turn them into megalomaniac plunderers. Perhaps the best way to minimize the damage which could be inflicted by such people is to bind term to a term limit and vote them out of power in the first term if the flaws become apparent soon enough.
But all this will not alter the basic fact that the fundamental reason for Ethiopia’s poverty and backwardness is lack of smart people in positions of power. The most reliable shortcut to fast economic and social development is trying to find Ethiopia’s Deng or Lee!
Herald February 24/2019
BYTEKLEBIRHAN GEBREMICHAEL
