BY GETACHEW MINAS
Extreme hydrological variability and seasonality and the international nature of its most significant surface water resources are the primary challenges Ethiopia faces. According to the World Bank report on the issue, “variability” is most obviously evident in prevalent, devastating droughts and floods.
Variability and seasonality have also a broad range of impacts on the Ethiopian economy, even in good rainfall years. Appropriate interventions are needed to decrease the vulnerability of the economy to these shocks. In particular, it is crucial to identify linkages between the economic performance of the country and its water resources endowment and management.
Analysis of both water resources strategies and economic and sector policies will enhance growth and development. This will help protect the Ethiopian people and economy from the devastating effects of water shocks. Such analysis, however, should investigate and describe the role of water in the economic performance of Ethiopia.
It should identify strategies for enhancing positive impacts and mitigating negative impacts of water on the economic performance of Ethiopia. Focus should also be given to external support to water management, which provides an integrated framework for developing and harmonizing strategies in water-related sectors.
Studies indicate that unmitigated hydrological “variability” currently costs the economy more than one-third of its growth potential. The very structure of the Ethiopian economy with its heavy reliance on rain-fed “subsistence” agriculture makes it particularly vulnerable to hydrological variability. Its low levels of hydraulic infrastructure and “limited” water resources management capacity undermine attempts to manage variability.
These hindrances render the economic performance of the country hostage to its hydrology. To de-link economic performance from rainfall and enable sustained growth and development, a few strategic “shifts” are deemed necessary.
A major shift is related to investments in water resources infrastructure. Institutions and capacity to manage flows and develop storage at all levels must be seen as an economic development “priority.” The growth of the country will continue to be undermined until the country achieves water security by acquiring a minimum level of infrastructure, institutions, and capacity to manage its water resources.
Investment on this scale may initially show low returns, but growth will continue to be hindered until water security is achieved. Particularly in the river basins, international cooperation on shared waters will be crucial to achieving sustainable water security without international tensions.
Availability of investment funds is crucial for the development of all sectors of the economy, including the water sector. Experts advise investments in water infrastructure should be multipurpose in nature.
This should be made in combination with the market infrastructure investments and related reforms needed to fully leverage their growth potential. Given the vast scale of investments needed in water and transport infrastructure, it may be necessary to adopt a “growth pole” strategy ensuring the resilience of engines of economic growth.
The combination of water, irrigation, hydropower, roads and other market infrastructure investments should produce dramatic collaboration. This provides the incentives and opportunity for farmers to shift out of subsistence agriculture into surplus/commercial agriculture and nonagricultural activities.
It is common practice to spread different types of investment across regions. “Isolated” investments will not have the same growth impact as coordinated investments in all regions of the country. In addition to coordinating and managing the “variability” of water resources, the “vulnerability” of the Ethiopian economy to hydrology must also be managed.
Economic policies and investment decisions need to “shift” the pattern of development and the structure of the economy away from heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture. This makes Ethiopia less vulnerable to its traditional use of water. It is well-known that the water resources of Ethiopia have always played a central role in society. It is an input, to a greater or lesser extent, to almost all production. It is also a force for destruction.
In Ethiopia, as in all societies, there has always been a struggle to reduce the destructive impacts of water and increase its productive impacts. This struggle has intensified over the past century or so as the population has grown dramatically. Today, the development of the country is seriously constrained by a complex water resources legacy and a lack of access to, and management of, these water resources.
Studies have pointed out that the water legacies of Ethiopia include “natural and historical” water resources. The natural legacy is one of very high, and apparently intensifying, hydrological variability, coupled with marked rainfall seasonality. At first sight, this water resources “endowment” appears generous.
The country has several major rivers and lakes, and significant groundwater resources and annual rainfall. However, rainfall across much of the country is both highly seasonal, with most of the rain falling in a single, short season, and exceptionally variable and unpredictable, both in time and space. With “poorly” protected watersheds and almost no investment in water storage, a consequence of this hydrological variability is unpredictable drought and flood.
However, there are challenges of water. Ethiopia faces water resources challenges in different ways. These are land degradation and sedimentation, soil erosion, and reduced soil fertility and productivity. Intensive storms cause significant soil erosion. The erosive effects of rainfall are significantly augmented by mountainous terrain.
Soil erosion is intensified by severe deforestation, and traditional agricultural practices of cultivating steep slopes without protective measures. The loss of forest cover, in turn, is generally associated with greater hydrological variability. Also, soil sedimentation compromises productivity and shortens the lifespan of water infrastructure for river regulation, municipal water supplies, agriculture, and hydropower generation.
The weak water regulation capacity increases flood risks for downstream communities. This poses a particular risk to the poor, who tend to live in the most vulnerable locations. Water resources challenges include droughts and floods, with significant events.
Droughts destroy watersheds, farmlands, and pastures, contributing to land degradation and causing crops to fail and livestock to perish. As a result, agricultural outputs decline negatively affecting macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic products and gross domestic savings. It can also severely undermine hydropower generation, which is the main source of electricity in Ethiopia. If rains fail, or fall early or late, the entire agricultural cycle can be disrupted.
There is inadequate water “storage” capacity to schedule water delivery. The sensitivity of production to seasonal and spatial distribution of rainfall constrains growth of output. Flooding causes significant damage to settlements and infrastructure. The inundation and water logging of productive land undermines agriculture by delaying planting, reducing yields, and compromising the quality of crops, especially if the rains occur around harvest time.
The water management policy of the government of Ethiopia states that the highest priority use of water is human and livestock consumption, which amounts to less than 1 percent of total water usage. This is a major challenge to be confronted with both by the people and the government.
Major efforts are being made by the government to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, only a minority of Ethiopians have access to potable water services and to improved sanitation. These circumstances are particularly onerous for women and girls who must fetch water and then care for those who become ill from waterborne diseases.
In addition to low coverage ratios, water supply and sanitation in both urban and rural communities is characterized by low service levels and lack of sustainability.
In all countries, development of water resources requires investments in both institutions and infrastructure. But when stocks of water infrastructure are “low,” investments in infrastructure are likely to receive low “priority.” Investment in management capacity and institutions becomes increasingly important as larger and more sophisticated infrastructure stocks are built. As pointed out by experts, without the infrastructure to “store and deliver” water and manage flows, there is neither the need nor the incentive for sophisticated management practices.
While developed countries are focused on the implementation of integrated water resources management, Ethiopia and other developing countries may do better to adopt a principled and pragmatic approach to management while putting greater emphasis on concurrent infrastructure investments. Failure to understand the issue of “balancing and sequencing” within the context of specific country circumstances may lead to poor investment choices.
In conclusion, in Ethiopia, water resources are exposed to high spatial and climatic variability, leading to major challenges affecting its economic development. Changes in climate and water supply regime have created the need to investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. The availability and accessibility of water resources in the country are mainly dependent on its climate and environment. The rainfall variability, alteration in temperature and other climatic variables significantly affect the variation in the level of stream flow. The flow is affected by several factors which include rainfall variations, soil physical properties, watershed factors and human activities.
It is known that water resources in Ethiopia are highly vulnerable to climate variability due to its topography and human-induced factors, such as land degradation, high population density and water management practices. Ethiopia has several river basins, out of which only a few are intensively utilized and environmentally vulnerable. The available freshwater, water basin habitat and human livelihood are all exposed to risks due to overexploitation of river water and poor traditional water use.
Studies indicate that in the highlands of Ethiopia, where there is a high and heterogeneous topography, rainfall and floods are expected to increase during the final period of the 21st century. Before that, the Ethiopian government is endeavoring to provide potable water services and to improve sanitation, relieving women and girls from the burden of fetching water and caring for those who suffer from waterborne diseases.
The Ethiopian Herald 22 January 2021
