Africa contributed just 3.5 percent of the total global carbon emission from 1963 to 2018. A researcher sponsored by NEPAD uncovered that the effects of climate change will be far more severe for Africa than other global regions, For one, the direct effects of climate change will be intense. Africa is warming faster than the global average and at an increasing rate over the past 50-100 years. The current path further projects that the temperature in Africa will grow by two degrees centigrade by 2063, with high and low estimates ranging from nearly three degrees of change to just over 1.5 degrees. This is consistent across African regions. African rainfall changes driven by human-induced warming will be more varied. Central Africa and Eastern Africa are projected to experience more rainfall, growing by 2.5 percent and five percent respectively in the current path by 2063. North, Southern, and Western Africa are projected to experience less rainfall, the distance between potential and actual production – could range from 10 to 90 percent across the continent. Climate change will exacerbate this problem.
Africa is also projected to lose, on average, 4.1 percent of cropland by 2039. “Africa is expected to experience the largest negative impact on agricultural yield compared with other global regions. By 2063, the current path suggests that African yield will be five percent less compared with the 1990 levels (using the same technology and agricultural inputs.) This is supported by a metaanalysis that projects that average crop yields in the continent will fall eight percent by the 2050s,” it said.
As part of the continent with huge vulnerability to climate change, and having a rapidly growing population of more than 100 million, asking how Ethiopia is prepared to cope with this shock is timely. Obviously, climate change is among the major challenges for Ethiopia in its quest to realize its development goals, including achieving food security. In fact, some 85 percent of the Ethiopians are dependent on the agriculture sector which is highly sensitive to climate.
According to USAID’s factsheet on climate risk, climate change will specifically affect Ethiopia’s agriculture in such a way that increased minimum and maximum temperatures would have a potential impact of increased heat stress, evapotranspiration, and reduced soil moisture content, negatively impacting crop yields. It would also result in the loss of arable land due to shifting agro-ecological zones. Again, increased temperatures would cause a reduction of water and feed resources for livestock, leading to lower productivity and higher susceptibility to diseases as well as increased conflicts over limited water and feed resources. To cope with the effects of climate change, adaptation and mitigation measures are being practiced in the country. At the higher level, the government has signed and ratified all the Rio Conventions – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Protocol, the Biodiversity Convention and the Conventions to Combat Desertification. The major policy measure the government has taken so far is the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy.
Accordingly, besides the direct effects such as an increase in average temperature or a change in rainfall patterns, climate change also presents the necessity and opportunity to switch to a new, sustainable development model. The government has therefore initiated CRGE initiative to protect the country from the adverse effects of climate change and to build a green economy that will help realize its ambition of reaching middle-income status before 2025. Since February 2011, the CRGE initiative, under the leadership of the Prime Minister’s Office, the Environmental Protection Authority, and the Ethiopian Development Research Institute has been developing a strategy to build a green economy.
Seven sectoral teams involving more than 50 experts from more than 20 leading government institutions have been driving the initiative. The objective is to identify green economy opportunities that could help Ethiopia reach its ambitious growth targets while keeping greenhouse gas emissions low. The government intends to attract development partners to help implement this new and sustainable growth model. On the other hand, Ethiopia has also been active in climate diplomacy and negotiation. Environment by its nature is transboundary that calls for international cooperation and collaboration in tackling its challenges. And Ethiopia has been actively engaged in climate change negotiations, stated the of Environment, Forests and Climate Change Commission. International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) affirmed that despite its Least Developed Country status, Ethiopia has played a leading role in climate diplomacy. Besides its strong political will and leadership that has enabled Ethiopia to integrate climate into its development strategy, it has also set ambitious national targets and successfully coordinated climate action across ministries.
But the most important thing according to IIED is that Ethiopian climate diplomats have also engaged effectively with their neighbors and the broader international community to mobilize support for stronger goals, supported by a growing evidence base gathered by the state. “The diplomatic efforts of proactive countries like Ethiopia would remain fundamental to the effort to reach a deal in international climate negotiations.” Back in September, Ethiopia has joined an international initiative, Green Climate Fund (GCF) seeking to build global resilience against the problems caused by climate change, and enable developing countries to become part of a united solution to the ongoing problem. Funded by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), GCF was established to help developing countries achieve national efforts to reduce national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The GCF is part of a united global response fuelled by the urgency and seriousness of the climate change challenge. That clarion call gained momentum worldwide after the 2015 Paris Agreement in which signatories agreed to collectively tackle climate change through the mechanism of implementing nationally determined contributions (NDC), a country’s tailored efforts to reduce its emissions and enable it to adapt to climate change-induced challenges. “Ethiopia is one of the few countries that have submitted a very ambitious and conditional NDC to the UNFCCC,” Zerihun Getu with Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation told Inter Press Service.
Approved in October 2017, Ethiopia’s GCF-backed project will be implemented over the course of five years at a cost of USD 50 million—with USD5 million co-financed by the government— to provide rural communities with critical water supplies all year round and improve water management systems to address risks of drought and other problems from climate change. According to IPS, The funding will go toward a threepronged approach: Introducing solar-powered water pumping and small-scale irrigation, the rehabilitation, and management of degraded lands around the water sources, and creating an enabling environment by raising awareness and improving local capacity.
“Ethiopia allocates its domestic resources for climate actions [but it] should also mobilize support from international community’s including the GCF to realize its vision and achieve its NDC targets,” Zerihun said. “The GCF will make a significant contribution to Ethiopia’s vision through financing projects and programs as well as through helping Ethiopia build capacity to mobilize other climate finance sources and leveraging other investment.” Further, in collaboration with NGOs, the Ethiopian government has been striving to expand climate-smart agriculture, though there remains a lot to be accomplished.
The Ethiopian Herald February 21/2019
BY ABIY HAILU
