No alternative other than going along with the African Union Initiative
The African Union (AU) mediated tripartite talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia was interrupted a week earlier and on Monday the Ethiopia Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Dina Mufti disclosed that the talks will continue on Tuesday via video conferencing. This was god news indeed because many political observers feared that the talks would not resume and Egypt might come up with another unpleasant alternaive because the AU approach had not satisfied its negotiators.
The other good news is that the European Union too is backing the AU initiative insisting through its envoy that African problems would be best served by the continental organization. Egypt’s reaction is so far muted as president Al Sisi held an emergency meeting of its top brass and key government officials and the agenda on the table was the Libyan conflict and the GERD project with particular emphasis on the filling of the controversial dam.
No detailed information is released as to the top level government meeting in Cairo and this has given rise to many speculations. Why did the military establishment took part in this national security meeting? Is Cairo preparing for a possible military action against Ethiopia’s GERD project with the view to stopping the filling if the dam unless Addis Ababa accepts the terms of the dam filling? Was the military top brass attending the meeting in view of engaging in Libyan crisis? This was most likely possible because of Cairo’s growing engagement in Libya’s civil war? That might have been one of the agendas on the table but this cannot confirmed at this stage.
Egypt’s hands are now tied by the Libyan conflict in which Cairo is involved on the side of the rebel general who is fighting the internationally recognized authority in Tripoli. Egypt’s military involvement has also a regional dimension and its security interests are at stake as Qatar and Turkey are supporting what is known as the legitimate authority in Tripoli. It may not have the time or capacity to wage war in two fronts although the dam controversy is more important to it than the Libyan crisis.
Baseless speculations aside. Egypt might not go to war against Ethiopia over the Nile and might simply go ahead with the AU-South African mediated talks . It might try to get maximum benefits from the talks by securing its rightful share of the water and let Ethiopia go ahead with the filling of the GERD under a kind of international or AU technical supervision. This is only one scenario.
The other possible scenario might be that hard liners within the Sisi government might consider this a compromise of Egyptian interests on the Nile and consider it a national treason regarding what they might consider the filling of the dam as an existential threat against Egypt. This, as some observers fear, might provide a pretext for a military coup against Al Sisi and the possible ascent of conservative hard liners within Egyptian political and military establishments.
The recent visit by Eritrean president Issayas Afewerki to Cairo and his meeting with General Al Sisi might have something to do with a mediation effort to scale down the tension between the two disputing countries. Here too, the details of the Sisi- Afewerki talks are kept secret. This week’s visit by Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed to Asmara might be part and parcel of this Eritrean diplomatic initiative. Eritrea may not be a big a country as South Africa but its strategic location on the edges of the Red Sea has always given it a clear advantage to play an important role in the affairs of many countries in this part of Africa.
As the details of the talks are kept secret, these kinds of speculations are inevitably creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and distrust among the public in Egypt and Ethiopia in particular. For analytical purpose it would be prudent to stick to the official diplomatic line of the talks as brokered by the AU and South Africa and it is here that the most important events will take place. What may be upsetting Cairo at this stage might be Ethiopia starting the filling of the dam despite Egypt’s earlier protests and its insistence on the need to sign a binding agreement before the filling of the dam starts. At this stage we may say that the Egyptians have already lost the diplomatic game around the filling of the dam.
The alternative for Egypt now is either to go along with the filling of the dam by coming up with constructive ideas that might help secure its national interests or get out of the talks and take unilateral action to stop the filling of the dam by hook or by crook.
This option is now becoming less and less possible as Egypt has apparently exhausted the intervention all potential arbitrators and has nowhere to go to make its point. Moreover, the international community is increasingly coming on the side of Ethiopia as the recent EU statement confirms. In this atmosphere of international diplomatic isolation, it would be a diplomatic suicide for Egypt to quit the talks and take unilateral action.
There is now a kind of disillusionment setting within the Egyptian political, military and diplomatic establishment because Ethiopia is getting ahead with the project at a steady and determined pace. The process has clearly reached an irreversible stage while trying to stop the process by force would be dangerous for Egypt and for the region and for the international community as a whole.
The talks would continue irrespective of the fact that the filling of the dam is continuing apace. The dam filling has created in Ethiopia a kind of public euphoria and a triumphant mood has set in while a low-level of hostility against Egypt’s position is taking shape among the Ethiopian public in all walks of life. Recent events in Ethiopia tend to further exacerbate the tension with Egypt that is generally regarded as hostile to Ethiopia’s political stability or economic development.
This attitude may not impact the tripartite talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia but it is giving additional impetus to the process of dam filling and the completion of the GERD as planned. The Ethiopian public is fueled with enthusiasm and the bond buying process to finance the construction of the dam is getting with more energy and commitment. “We are ready to shoulder any responsibility as far as the dam is concerned,” say many people in the Addis streets when asked by the local media, “even if that requires dying for the dam because the GERD is our identity, our hope, our investment and our survival not only for now but also for the future generations!”
It will be difficult if not impossible to stop such a huge public enthusiasm and determination. What Egypt and Sudan can do at this stage is to abandon their intransigence and to go along with Ethiopia’s constructive initiatives and try to promote their interests within that framework instead of trying to stop what is unstoppable. Whether one like it or not the AU initiative is going to gain more grounds and other alternatives are going to be irrelevant as time passes.
This week’s video conference between Sudanese, Egyptian and Ethiopian leaders was positive in the sense that the African Union alternative is more or less recognized as the best option to resolve the differences between the three countries. Meanwhile, Egypt has also taken a positive and surprising diplomatic initiative by exploring the possibility of calling a conference of in which a number of African countries would take part.
There are some nine Nile riparian African countries that are interested in the settlement of the disputes over the share of the Nile waters. It may be constructive to engage countries because this might alleviate the pressure on the three main disputing countries and provide an opportunity for new ideas to be heard. It would be constructive on the part of Egypt to remain within the African diplomatic framework to defend its interests and respect the interests of it African neighbors.
However the other alternative Egypt is said to be exploring, namely going back to the UN Security Council to make its case reconsidered might not be productive because it has already used that alternative and nothing new has occurred to elicit a diplomatic volte face at this stage. The three leaders who came up with their respective reports during last Tuesday’s video conference are expected to agree on some converging points while retaining their differences but the most feasible alternative is to keep the talks on track and exhaust the AU -South Africa initiative before looking for other alternatives.
The Ethiopian Herald July 26, 2020
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
