The misconceptions on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), both deliberate and unintentional could never derail or stop the progress of the project. Our dam is an engine to drive positive change in Africa to transform the lives of millions of the hopeful poor and the rich.
The rural population in Egypt enjoys a-100 present electric power coverage while only 31 per cent of the rural population in Ethiopia has access to the service. Only 41 per cent of Ethiopians have access to basic drinking water sources compared to the coverage of a-99 per cent in Egypt. In addition, 94 per cent of Egyptians have access to basic sanitation services while the coverage for Ethiopians is limited only to 7 per cent of the population.
The GDP per capital for 2018 for Ethiopia and Egypt is USD 772.31 and 2,594.00 respectively. This figure was USD 163.00 for Egypt a year before the launching of the Aswan High Dam justifying the importance of energy to economic development. Similarly, this is manifested in the share of agriculture (34.8 per cent for Ethiopia and 11.7 per cent for Egypt), industry (21.6 per cent for Ethiopia and 34.3 per cent) and service (43.6 per cent for Ethiopia and 54 per cent for Egypt) sectors.
The dependence on agriculture in Ethiopia ranges between 80 per cent and 85 per cent while it is less than 18 per cent in Egypt. The 2017 estimate of total export, for instance, stood at USD 3.23 billion for Ethiopia and 23.3 billion for Egypt. Hence, the vulnerability of employment in 2018 which is expressed in terms of percentage of the total employment was 86 per cent in Ethiopia and 21.3 per cent in Egypt. This is directly associated with the growth and strength of the agriculture, industry and service sectors and their ability to generate employment and ensure job security for millions of youth. Hydroelectric power, therefore, is a driver that sustainably feeds the operation of activities in these core sectors justifying the unparalleled role of producing energy from GERD in Ethiopia to realize its economic growth ambitions.
Moreover, the 2018 Human Development Index (HDI) for Ethiopia and Egypt stood at 0.47 and 0.7 respectively implying low development for Ethiopia and high development for Egypt. By all comparisons, Ethiopia still have long way to go to expand fundamental infrastructure to meet the very basic demands of its people.
The existing misguided and false narrative that attempt to justify Egypt’s sole existential linkage to Nile has completely excluded Ethiopia and the rest of the basin counties from the linkage picture.
Despite contributing 86 per cent of the water to river Nile and its greater basin system, Ethiopia has benefited nothing so far. On the other hand, apart from the inefficient utilization and management practices of the Nile river waters, Egypt has net water storage of 151 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) out of which 51 BCM is lost to evapo-transpiration while Ethiopia has only 13.3 BCM which is equivalent to only 4 per cent of the rain it receives.
In addition, there is a significant disparity in surface and ground water reserve potentials between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt’s surface and ground water reserves are 108 BCM and 63,200 BCM respectively. For Ethiopia the numbers are visibly small that stands at only at 30 BCM and 12.7 BCM for surface and ground reserve respectively.
The figures presented above not only indicate the imbalances in water potentials but also justify current and future vulnerability of Ethiopia to drought; thereby, justifying its evidence-based existential linkages to the Nile River. However, little or no investment on development using the waters of the Nile has brought more poverty and human suffering to hundreds of millions of people in the basin. Hence, the question of developing the Nile River is equally or more existentially linked to all countries in the basin.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and other projects on Nile upstream are not about competing for regional power politics. It is a matter of raising life standards which is closely felt at individual level.
As an average Ethiopian, it marks to me the beginning of a bright future to my autistic kids and many other intellectually and physically disabled children whose countries cannot provide the kind of education that is appropriate enough to exploit their unique capabilities. Thus, GERD is this close to me and millions of other parents in the Nile basin whose hope and futures are filled with dreams of settling in developed economies in search of better education, health and energy infrastructure that is not available at home.
Sadly, Egypt’s presentation of its existential tie with Nile has no respect to the most important tenets of international water use let alone for someone like me. It rather stands against the equitable share and the no-significant harm covenants which are violated by the 1959 appropriation of the Nile water by Egypt and Sudan. According to the treaty, Egypt and Sudan unfairly and selfishly appropriated the water undermining the rights to the water by the remaining riparian countries.
Even worse and indecent is their continued misinforming missions to convince the world to accept and approve their illegitimate and immoral position. It is remembered that both countries disagreed to be part of the Cooperative Framework of Agreement (CFA) that looks into establishing a Nile River Basin Commission to guide sustainable and dispute-free development of the basin.
Despite rejection of the CFA, the trilateral discussions to resolve the conflict of interest between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt on GERD has resumed to arrive at consensus on framing a context of fair water use. Such a framework can only succeed with the proactive participation and democratic decision making processes at basin level.
Bilateral and trilateral discussions and decisions will not bear lasting solutions to an equitable and fair use of the Nile River. Attempts from Egypt to assert hegemony over Nile water use while it makes no meaningful contributions to the water is not only unacceptable but also ungrateful behaviour.
Ethiopia as a major contributor to the river rather has justifiable grounds to claim a veto power status. However, repression has never been its foreign policy strategic direction and it has never attempted to exercise that. Ethiopia believes in collective engagement to maximize economic benefits from the Nile and any other commonly shared resource base in the basin. This explains why Ethiopia rejects binding arbitration and signing into law of any document coming out of the trilateral discussions that ignores parties to the CFA protocol. Therefore, Ethiopia neither commits to such instrument of injustice nor backtracks the filling of its dam.
In spite of Egypt’s mobilization of support against Ethiopia, no action will prevent the latter’s progress to development. In a clear manifestation of its matured diplomatic reputation and accommodative discourse, Ethiopia agreed to make concessions and extend the filling of the dam to a reasonable length of the time. This is assumed to address any potential hydrological drought and critical water shortages if any.
Ethiopia’s quest to complete GERD and meet its basic development aspiration, regardless of the justifiable facts, is rejected by Egypt who has continued not to cooperate to see economically and politically integrated and stable region. The most important role the dam will play to fulfil the basic needs of Ethiopia’s rural and urban population and its vital contribution to development of the region through better energy infrastructure development is deliberately ignored by Egypt.
Ethiopia’s row with Egypt, therefore, can simply be explained as GERD triggered water-quake that shook Egypt’s skewed and unfair political establishment that has lived to extend its hegemony in the basin.
Egypt continues to justify its inappropriate and illegitimate use of the Nile water without regard to others basin state’s plan to develop the river. By mobilizing its allies to support the economic and political interest on the Nile water use, it managed for decades to misguide and influence giant financial institutions to refrain from funding water projects in the Nile basin.
In its futile attempt to put pressure on Ethiopia, it could convince the Trump administration to take pro-Egypt positions during the trilateral negotiations on GERD in Washington. This resulted in Ethiopia’s disengagement from the US brokered talk and subsequently led to the African Union-led negotiations.
Ethiopia’s request for the AU to chair the negotiations succeeded in heralding a diplomatic victory for Ethiopia. It is recognition of the legitimacy of the continental organization’s mandate and capacity to mediate trans boundary resource conflicts between member states. It is also a reaffirmation of Ethiopia’s firm belief that Africa’s challenges and opportunities should be guided by wisdoms of African thinkers. The AU is expected to impartially mediate and exercise a high level political commitment to help resolve the case between the three countries.
Ethiopia’s position on GERD justifies our fight against structural injustice and institutionally sponsored underdevelopment. Likewise, Ethiopia hopes that GERD will triumph an era of fair and equitable use of the Nile river system within the changing hydro-political landscape in the Nile basin.
GERD will therefore continue to impound the dam and Ethiopia will liberate its people and Africa from aid-based financial slavery and the shackles of dehumanizing poverty. Baseless accusations that portray GERD as consumptive hydropower project risking Egyptians to potential hydrological drought and critical water shortages will not bar Ethiopia from finalizing the dam. On the contrary, however, GERD is better suited to prevent potential water loss to evapotranspiration and will release
regulated water in all seasons ruling out concerns of drought and water stress downstream. Similarly, Egypt’s concern over agricultural loses during the impoundment of GERD is beyond exaggeration as the amount of water in Aswan High Dam is more than enough to continue to sustain the agricultural operations.
In addition, even though Ethiopia is not a party to the colonial treaties of the 1929 and 1959, it has never shown any intention of committing irresponsible behaviour including considerations to allocate the Nile water to fulfil its political and economic ambitions. It is in this strict equitable use and collective cooperative principle that Ethiopia shared relevant documents with Sudan and Egypt concerning the construction of GERD and invited them to fund the construction for common benefit. Ethiopia’s decision to extend the length of the filling period was in due consideration of preventing an unlikely scenario of water shortage.
Ethiopia’s promoting cooperation and collective engagement is firmly rooted in principles of creating no harm and promoting equitable and fair use of the river. It aligns well with the Pan-African ideals that necessitate continental wide economic, political and social development. The promotion of political and economic integration of Africa is a noble initiative Ethiopia took as a founding member and host to the African Union. This noble responsibility requires a leadership that is principled, forward looking, inclusive and stable in its nature.
However, following the revisions made to fast-pace GERD project by Abiy Ahmed’s reformist government, a number of attempts were made to slow down the project progress and destabilize the country. Ethiopia blames foreign countries for master minding and sponsoring most of such plots and violence in the country.
Egypt’s meddling into Ethiopia’s internal politics in the past may have much to do with the accusations. For decades, Egypt has been involving in backstopping Ethiopian armed anti-government opposition groups. Few years back, President Mursi’s Muslim brotherhood government officials were threatening war while spreading war mongers’ plotting instability in Ethiopia in a live televised meeting.
Ethiopia’s arch enemies have always been wide awake to incite hatred and instability in our soil. They have in many different ways supported agents of division and destruction. They feed their ‘made in Ethiopia’ Trojan horses for decades to carry out their heavily evil missions to destabilize the country and kill our hopes for peace, prosperity and development. Any party involved in externally sponsored destructive political missions should be reminded that political grievances of whatever type and size should only be addressed through a civil discourse. Street riots and killings will pull us back into misery and rebuilding the past when we should have focused more on reconstructing the future.
The Ethiopian dream is to see a future where our children walk freely and live in a place of their choice. The Ethiopian dream is to keep our eyes and ears off the news of manslaughter and massacre. Our dream is to make Ethiopia a land of plenty, forgiveness, kindness and prosperity. On my part, I work hard to pass my children these ideals and a nation with half the foundation complete for them to continue to reconstruct their and their children’s future. I would like to pass them a lesson of forgiveness, hope and greatness. I do not want to see if not to imagine at all youth holding machetes on their hand to slaughter their brothers and sisters to fulfil externally sponsored sick missions. I would like to see them grabbing sickles and hoe to till the soil and feed their people. The problems we have are more than enough to deal with and we should not bring more to the list.
Poverty is our number one challenge and GERD is the weapon to fight it. Alleviating it, however, needs more mega projects of economic scale and peace to attract foreign direct investment. Our fight against the structural injustice needs to propose alternative mechanisms to securing loans from global financial institutions and likeminded allies. However, without peace and stability, economic prosperity is unthinkable. Maintaining rule of law and accountability has to, therefore, be a priority task of the government. The political tsunami will soon pass sweeping away enemies of Ethiopia. Our fight for justice and the struggle for a better life should continue. The Grand Renaissance Dam is loading installing prosperity to the people of Ethiopia and people in the basin. We are in a march to make Ethiopia great and we will never bow to terror and global injustice.
Ed.’s note: Samuel Tefera Alemu (PhD) is an Assistant Professor at the Center for African and Oriental Studies; and Associate Dean for Research and Technology Transfer, College of Social Sciences, Addis Ababa University. He is reachable through: samuel.tefera@aau.edu.et
The Ethiopian Herald July 17, 2020
BY SAMUEL TEFERA ALEMU (PHD)
