The long journey to democratic federalism
According to recent trends, almost all political parties in Ethiopia accept federalism as the way forward for the country to overcome age-old political and economic problems and as a guarantee against a relapse of what many believe are past injustices. The recent Sidama referendum on statehood which was successfully carried out and is being implemented provides a model for dealing with similar demands in the future. However, every nationality or ethnic group is not expected to grow into statehood overnight unless conditions are ripe for it. Otherwise, continued statehood claims or demands might lead to unmanageable chaos.
The Sidama referendum can be taken as proof that the federal arrangement, with all its problems and challenges, is still a better alternative to chaos if backed by genuine democratic participation and the expression of the will of the people as expressed in the Sidama referendum. The demand for statehood is now growing because the previous federal arrangement was dysfunctional and unable to guarantee constitutional rights to the peoples of the various nationalities.
In the past, the federal arrangement was imposed from above and maintained with dictatorial methods. As a result of this, there is now a radical although slow shift taking place from what we may call ‘authoritarian federalism’ or federalism from above, to genuine although imperfect federalism from below with the people as direct participants in shaping the process and its outcomes. This is a remarkable achievement indeed.
Politics is the art of the possible as the political gurus often say and democracy is the linchpin of any successful federalist project. American or Canadian, German or Indian federal systems are functional because essentially they are predicated on democratic exercise as an expression of people’s will. Between tightly centralist and forced unification imposed from above, federalism or devolution of power from the centre to the peripheral regions may be regarded as the better of two evils. In Ethiopia both federalism from above and forced unification have so far failed to deliver and the remaining option seems to be democratic federalism based on the will and aspirations of the people.
Federalism based on any pretension other than democracy and people’s will is like a house of cards that tumbles easily or aggravates the contradiction between the centre and the periphery leading to short-term political crises and instabilities or, in the worst case, long-term separatist tendencies as a way out of a marriage of inconvenience. The rise of nationalism, ethnicity or separatist tendencies across the globe is in fact a testimony to the fact that the old way of keeping countries together has indeed become obsolete.
Political scientists also tell us that as nationalism is on the rise across the world separatism is becoming the way out for some of the most entangled relationship within national boundaries. In Europe what is called the Hard Right parties that are insanely xenophobic and right wing are on the ascendency. Germany is one example of this trend. In some countries separatism is making political headways. The Basque region of Catalonia in Spain is one example where separatism is the dominant choice in the region.
The stage was set for the growth of nationalism and separatism to flourish following the implosion of the former Soviet Union and the emergence of more than half a dozen national entities that were formerly subjugated and forced into union by the powerful communist states in Eastern Europe. The once united and integral parts of a country followed the path of political implosion and the creation of separate identities and ideologies, thereby blowing off the illusion that kept alive a semblance of federated entities.
The Balkan war of the 1990’s also set the stage for the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia and the creation of nine separate national states as well as the creation of the independent state of Kosovo. All these cases point at one direction. Forced federalism or national unity is bound to crumble sooner or later giving rise to powerful backlashes whereby nationalism and/or ethnic identities become the dominant ideologies that guide separatist impulses across the world.
This is not only a new form of national or ethnic awakening that is making the old forms of unions based on coercion and violence things of the past. It is also becoming the dominant political expression of peoples who choose to live freely in accordance with their cultures and traditions and cultures and without outside intervention or domination.
Although it was the wrong kind of federalism both the former USSR and Yugoslavia were once federal states comprising many forcibly federated former independent countries. The process was created artificially and kept by force under the tutelage of communist parties that preached democracy on paper but exercised dictatorship in real life.
Russian dictator Joseph Stalin preached that a federation will be kept alive if you give democracy to the people so that all the dissatisfactions would disappear automatically. History took a long time to discredit federations led by communist parties to be sham exercises that exploded in the face of the most ardent advocates of communist inspired federalism.
Almost the same thing happened in Ethiopia under the defunct EPRDF party whose ideology was the worst feature of Stalinism and the so-called democratic centralism that was the direct antithesis of the universal principles of true democracy. The EPRDF cobbled together a semblance of federalism by forcing what it called nations into a marriage of convenience that proved untenable as a result of the rise of centrifugal ethnic and nationalist forces that occupied the space left by the democratic centralists of yesteryears. Federalism in Ethiopia is actually going through a period of political upheavals, strains and stresses that may not pass the test of time as soon as the chief architects of the federalist project left the political scene by hook or by crook.
The EPRDF designed the federal state in an apparent illusion or hope that it would keep it in power indefinitely by giving it unfair advantage over all the other power brokers. Once the TPLF lost control of the federal state, it denounced it fellow travelers as renegades who breached the major precepts of the constitution it itself designed to keep itself as a hegemonic entity within a coalition built of like-minded people willing to accept its political diktat.
And the big talks about the constitution and its federal offshoots are proving to be only empty talks or big lies. There is nowadays another project that is under way to replace it with what is called the federalist project which is a thinly disguise facade for separatism and chaos. There is much confusion as to the meaning and content of this project sometimes led by what are known as federalist forces by ex-TPLF bigwigs.
Many students of political science maintain that federalism itself can sometimes be messy, leading into political complications with unpredictable consequences. Federalism needs a long time and patience to mature and grow into a stable, predictable system of government. Most of all federalism works when it is only a democratic federalism and does not take any other form. Federalism and dictatorship are not only incompatible; they are also mutually exclusive. Any de facto one party system under whatever pretensions cannot accommodate a truly federalist project.
Thus, the task of creating a democratic system of government is inseparable from the task of creating a genuinely democratic form of federal structures. Federalism as we knew it here in Ethiopia for the last 25 or so years has created a caricature of a system that is undermined under a hegemonic one party system. The system is now tittering on the brink and attempts to save it from final collapse are sometimes proving frustrating and dangerous. Nevertheless the shift from authoritarian to democratic federalism seem inevitable despite the challenges.
Moreover, the most dangerous tendency is to lose faith in the possibility of building a genuinely democratic federal system of government. The ongoing debates over constitutional niceties among rival groups is a healthy dose of democratic exercise that must be commended. But too much talking or hair splitting could derail the process or overlook the real practical issues. When impatience and boredom set in, people would resort to another alternative that will encourage ethnic groups or nationalities to seek their own path to redemption or disaster by scrapping the federal system or the constitution and embrace separatist tendencies or give life to secessionist impulses. This is like jumping into a dark space without knowing what lies inside the dark hole.
Genuinely democratic federalism can serve as an antidote to hasty separatist or secessionist tendencies that may not be the right choice without fully exhausting the debates around the various strategies of nation-building. Separatism may be recommended when all avenues for democratic compromise are exhausted and that the only remaining alternative becomes breaking away from a dysfunctional system.
The Ethiopian Herald June 28, 2020
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
