Any military threats echoed from Cairo do not necessarily intend to reach Ethiopia. At least this time Egypt has unfolding problem in its neighboring Libya. It is lined up with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) against Libya’s United Nations-backed Government of National Accord (GNA). In this regard, the Libyan civil war and the Egyptian military coup are considered the two important products of the Arab Spring. Therefore, Egypt doesn’t like the ties created between, the then political group and now terrorist organization designate, Muslim Brotherhood and GNA. Particularly after the ousting of elected president Mohamed Morsi in 2013, many of this group’s members were taken to prison or forced into self-exile in Turkey, Qatar and Western Europe, according to sources. The group’s Libya wing paused serious challenge to the leadership in Cairo.
The latest war drum beat is getting lauder by day amid the stalled negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. Over this past weekend both leaders of Ethiopia and Egypt have met with their army officers. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said that he held “fruitful discussions on the new defense strategy and institution building activities” which he is also intending to make public details of the strategy; while according to media reports, President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi told his army to ‘be prepared to carry out any mission within its borders, or if necessary outside borders’. Al-Sissi’s allude to the possibility of sending “external military missions if required” might be taken out of context here. The later has sustained severe political and military headache with Libya’s factions aligned to GNA and other nations stake in it. Thus, as social media flare escalated the GNA was reported by media to have denounced the President’s threats, saying his comments were akin to “beating the drums of war”.
Meanwhile, Ethiopian is counting down days to go ahead according to its plan and start filling the GERD, even without an agreement. Addis Ababa made clear that ‘it has no mandate to reach an agreement before starting filling the dam’.
Despite a whole new level of unofficial warmongering, yet both sides are keen to pursue diplomatic means to come to a certain understanding on the matter. Perhaps there could be other parties involved in fueling the stalled talks to cater hazardous signal and eventually lead the two to a full-fledged conflicts. Cairo has called on the United Nations Security Council for the second time to intervene to the issue. However, President al-Sissi was quoted at an air force base for saying that his country is always keen to take the diplomatic and political path until its end.
Egypt’s aforementioned involvement in Libya is a paradox to how it is now seeking an intervention fro
Security Council to help it resolve the GERD dispute with Ethiopia. Egypt puts big stake in Libya including with its own insertion of “Cairo Declaration” backed by General Khalifa Haftar, who is head of the Libya National Army (LNA) fighting GNA, and Libya’s parliamentary speaker Aguila Saleh. In the meantime, it is also legitimizing its intention to military intervention in Libya with ‘an aim to protect and secure its western borders’.
Regardless of Egypt’s alleged involvement that toughened the job of the Security Council in Libya, several diplomatic meetings failed to force GNA and Gen. Haftar forces for ceasefire. Therefore claims have it, behind the firm desire to enforce stability in Libya and preserve the country’s sovereignty Egypt is blamed to stand firm with the East-based bloc. In violation to the UN Security Council imposed arms embargo (i.e. resolution 1970) and international leaders call for an end to foreign interference in the war in Libya, Cairo is accused of supplying forces allied to Haftar with armaments that added fuel to the ongoing conflict.
Egypt took the dam matter to the UN Security Council to make it an international peace and security concern, yet experts argue that Cairo has unreasonably kept blaming Addis Ababa for everything so as to delay the negotiations on the dam. And this time was no different from Cairo’s long standing tactics to delay the negotiations with external party involvement in the tripartite talks other than Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, and ultimately force Ethiopia not to proceed with its plan and aspiration of generating electricity from its hard earned project.
The fact though Cairo is worried too much about Libya does not mean it won’t send similar message to Addis Ababa. Historically, literatures say, despite the difficulties of collective action and headline-grabbing cries of ‘water wars’, armed violence is rare in transboundary river basins. “There has never been a single war fought over water.” Accordingly, same literatures note that, in the limited incidents of wars between states where water is involved, the underlying or primary cause was not water.
Ultimately, the two countries promise of delivering peaceful and diplomatic means over the negotiations must be the most viable option at hand.
The Ethiopian Herald June 23, 2020
BY KIRAM TADESSE
