• Cairo’s militaristic approach: Result of its defeat on diplomatic fora
With Egypt willfully disqualifying itself from the rules of peaceful negotiations, playing dilly-dally in the revived trilateral GERD talks; it has equally been adopting an aggressive approach by ramping up the war of words which security experts see it as a futile action and yet a suicidal mission.
Lately; however, Egyptians’ actions have taken a new form as they threaten war, making the issue more direct and more open. In the experts’ perspective, what the Egyptians are doing now is nothing but a continuation of their long-held uncivilized policies and is a sign of desperation.
They also attribute the escalation to Egypt’s complete defeat at the diplomatic and peaceful stages. Their remarks came after the Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris openly calls for war against Ethiopia. His statement has been the latest words of war.
For long, pro-government media and some Egyptian commentators have also been calling the country to resort to force. Cairo has also been making words of wars through its diplomats, officials, and other prominent individuals.
Solely monopolizing the river Nile, Egypt for long has been resorting to militaristic approach and threatens the use force— a common trend which proves not only Cairo’s desperation but also its unheeded old-fashioned actions.
These belligerent behaviors according to experts escalated in recent times as Egypt finds it very difficult to enter an agreement that encourages fair and equal utilization of the river.
Statements coming out from Cairo usually hints that these acts are expected to further mount as recent talks almost came into a halt as Egypt has tried to undermine the ongoing trilateral talks.
In his briefing, last Monday, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Gedu Andargachew revealed the fact that the Egyptians’ statements are undermining the talks. He said that by issuing statements every day, the Egyptians have continued to say that the talks have failed, and it will not be successful.
He pointed out that Egypt is trying to have it both ways, as always, where they are trying to take the issue to the UN Security Council whilst playing their sham at the negotiating table at the same time.
If Egypt walks out of the ongoing trilateral talks, they will not be any reason for another round of dialogue, the Minister stressed. They do not want to make any concessions during the talks while at the same time they also want to take everything. “The basic fundamental principle of negotiation is give-and-take.”
Egypt’s unfair and war-mongering moves emanate from its years of interest to solely use the common resources. The war of words that Egypt propagates is acts of desperation yet obsolete thinking, Former Army Commander Lt. Gen. Bacha Debele tells The Ethiopian Herald.
The action, in fact, clearly implies that Cairo is engaged in old-fashioned thought and remains as belligerent as it has been for years. Past circumstances have changed; colonial agreements are no longer the guiding principles in the 21st century, he added.
The Nile should not be the reason for war. Egypt has nothing to lose because of the dam. Respecting international principles should be the only guiding principle. However, it is an open secret that Ethiopia is adequately prepared whether there is an imminent threat from Egypt or not.
“I do not think Cairo will launch attacks from its foothold. It may use others as launching pad and Trojan horses for proxy war. Yet, these attempts are doomed to fail as Ethiopia has all the capability to defend such actions. The thing is Ethiopia’s military is well organized and has the capability to retaliate efficiently and immediately.”
He also says Egypt’s desire to deny Ethiopia’s right to utilize the common resources is not about the dam only; it is also about undermining the power shift that can take place due to the dam. The dam, beyond power generation, makes Ethiopia one of the strategic power players in the region.
In fact, Ethiopia is in a state of proxy war with Egypt and it requires Ethiopia to neutralize every internal threat which can serve as its sleeper cell.
Leaving other reasons aside, history even is not on Egypt’s side. In fact, no country including Egypt can win a war whose major goal is to perpetuate past injustices and unfair benefits.
No matter what, Ethiopia needs to resort to diplomacy as long as there is no provocation from the other side. We have a true and valid cause and we need to let other countries find out the reason behind the construction of the dam—i.e., development.
Egyptian leaders should never attempt to confront Ethiopia; instead, they should respect the country and focus on an equitable share, he advised. Egyptians cannot intimidate Ethiopia due to their war infrastructure because Ethiopia has everything which enables it to get the upper hand at the end of the day.
Political leadership is all about considering lasting national interests of the Egyptians and striving for joint development with other peoples without confrontation, he added.
In an interview with the Addis Zemen Ethiopian Defense Forces Deputy Chief of Staff, General Birhanu Jula states that his country will defend its interests to the end. And GERD is at the center of the top national interests that the Force would defend. Ethiopia would not negotiate its sovereignty over the project.
Egypt is not aware of Ethiopian people’s heroism and the people of Ethiopia would never hesitate to shed their blood for the sovereignty of their country. Let alone Egypt, the rest of the world knows very well the extent to which Ethiopians deal with war whenever the time comes.
“Our tributaries are more than lethal forces and we know how to maneuver wars if we must fight. Our path of progress must be cooperation and fair use of common resources.”
Yohannes Gebeyehu is an MA degree holder in International Relations and Diplomacy. He says, in his written response, that from this intelligence communication, one can understand that Egypt’s tool of foreign policy towards Africa has been uncivilized. The country also used pariah tactics ranging from direct invasion, words of war to disinformation and misinformation,
For him, Egypt for long has adopted rather uncivilized, intimidation and war approaches as its major components of African policy citing different cases. Egypt’s policy towards Ethiopia and Sudan has been, for the most part, dominated by threats, military intervention, and ethnic-religious subversion; pariah diplomacy.
This behavior of Egypt is inherent to its foreign policy instruments towards Africa, he adds indicating that Cairo’s pariah diplomacy is not limited to Egypt’s engagement with Ethiopia but it is extended to other African countries.
But it is much pronounced with its relation with Ethiopia and Sudan as both countries have direct water resource relations with Egypt. In 2013, in a live television broadcast, Egypt’s leader — including the president at the time, Mohamed Morsi — discussed covert tactics to scupper the dam, including a bomb attack.
Making his case more clear, Yohannes states that the failed invasion of Ethiopia in the 1870s and its invasion of the Sudan and establishment of the Anglo-Egyptian condominium rule (1899-1955), he makes a case in point adding that according to Stratfor, U.S. private security firm, in 2010 Egypt’s’ intelligence head (Omar Suleiman who later in 2011 became Vice President), threatened that”…we will send a jet to bomb the dam and come back in one day, simple as that. Or we can send our special forces into block/sabotage the dam.
In 2013, in a live television broadcast Egypt’s leader including the president at the time, Mohamed Morsi discussed cover tactics to scupper the dam, including a bomb attack. Its rogue diplomacy remained the same during Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Egypt’s tool of foreign policy towards Africa has always been uncivilized.
Egypt’s foreign policy and diplomacy towards the Nile and particularly the GERD is therefore grounded on that strong non-African political history, the psychological makeup of foreign policy decision-makers, he concludes.
Egyptian President Muhammad Anwar el-Sadat days after signing the historic 1979 peace treaty with Israel after a long war, made an infamous statement that “the only matter that could take Egypt to war again is water”; the Nile.
Ten years later, the Egyptian former FM and UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali repeated similar threats of war statement when he said, as quoted from Peter H. Gleick: “The next war in our region will be over the waters of the Nile, not politics.”
According to Stratfor, U.S. private-security firm, in 2010 Egypt’s intelligence head (Omar Suleiman who later in 2011 became Vice President), threatened that ‘’… we will send a jet to bomb the dam and come back in one day, simple as that. Or we can send our special forces into block/sabotage the dam… Look back to an operation Egypt did in the mid-late 1970s; I think 1976, when Ethiopia was trying to build a large dam. We blew up the equipment while it was traveling by sea to Ethiopia.’’
The Ethiopian Herald June 19, 2020
BY DESTA GEBREHIWOT
