Unpredictable Sudan, irreversible decision

The biggest news story reported last week locally would be the approval of the House of Federation to extend the mandate of the federal and regional governments. This would hopefully settle the dust that has been blowing over the constitution and the legitimacy of the incumbent leadership after the end of the coming September. There was also another positive development last week whose scope goes beyond our borders to cover the sub-region.

We heard that Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan last Tuesday agreed to hold daily teleconference meetings until this week to settle the outstanding issues about the filing of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). That gave us another deep sigh of relief. The Sudanese claim the credit for the resuscitation of the GERD talks, which is tagged by some analysts as one of the most pressing diplomatic and political disputes in the African continent.

In recent days, it is Sudan’s name that is being frequently mentioned in the GERD news more often the Ethiopia and Egypt. In the earlier days, Sudan’s voice of support for GERD was loud and clear. The reason is simple. The dam would undoubtedly be a blessing to Sudan bringing multifaceted benefits: from nurturing its economic growth to providing panacea for flood disasters that beleaguers its people. We remember Sudan’s bold rejection three months ago of an Arab League resolution supporting Cairo’s position in the GERD dispute.

That we believe, is the act of genuine desire of Sudan toward the full realization of GERD. we also bear in mind Sudan’s decision not to sign the US-sponsored text, leaving Egypt as the only one to subscribe to it.

However, Sudan’s stance started to fluctuate recently as Egypt further invigorated its blatant politicization of the GERD project on an international scale, which is believed to have impacted and strained on Sudan’s dealings and cooperation with donor countries, especially with Arab countries. It is to be recalled that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have terminated funneling $3 billion in aid they pledged to Sudan. Was their decision had anything to do with Sudan’s position against the Arab League resolution?

Some Arab media reports implicated the US involvement in the decision. But here is what a Sudanese commented on the situation word for word: “The motivation behind of this cancellation of aid is due to refusal of Sudan from current Arab league endorsement on River Nile water.”

Sudan’s bowing to the pressure of political wind exerted by the well-greased diplomatic machinery of the Pharaohs has gone as far as summiting a letter to the UN Security Council, a document that reflects a more evident tendency towards the Egyptians arguments which is based on paranoia and selfishness not the reality on the ground.

In that letter it filed to the UN, the Sudanese Foreign Affairs Ministry has requested UN Security Council to push the parties involved in the Renaissance Dam issue to avoid taking any unilateral measures that might negatively affect regional and international peace and security. This diplomatic jargon simply means Sudan opposes Ethiopia’s plan to conduct the first phase of filling the reservoir in the coming month.

By the way, Ethiopia’s plan to fill the dam on the coming rainy season was one of the major points that have been agreed upon among all parties in the US-brokered Washington talks. If that is so, why do Sudan and Egypt insist on reaching a comprehensive agreement before the start of the preliminary first phase of the filling process?

It may be worthwhile to mention here the sinister way with which Ethiopia’s water filling plan is being reported by even wellreputed Arab news channels. Most of their reports are deliberately doctored to mislead readers to think that Ethiopia is filling the GERD to the full capacity &[74 BCM ] this summer, while the truth is the first phase of Ethiopia’s water filling plan for the coming rainy season is only 4.9 BCM, which is relatively minimal amount nowhere near to cause concern for lower stream countries.

A news reader indignant at Sudan’s unpredictable moves wrote the following comment on the news of Sudanese letter to the UN: “Egypt and Sudan’s demand is an unacceptable double standard. Both did not inform a single riparian nation when they built dams on the river Nile. Why are they insisting on conditions now when it is Ethiopian turn? An essentials line in Sudan’s letter to the UN states, ‘the most important rules of the Convention [UNWC-1997]is the equitable and reasonable use of water resources.’ If that is the case, what else is Ethiopia asking for?

Nothing more than an equitable share of the Nile. For too long, Egyptians turned East Africans against each other and enjoyed the bloodbath. Well, the end of that is near. Every card they draw is going to be a bad one. They will soon face the calamity they well deserve if they don’t show good manners.

In the statement they made last week, Sudanese authorities sounded to have partially admitted and tried to explain their fluctuating stance on GERD. “We only side with our interests, and sometimes they go along with those of Egypt or Ethiopia. When we said that the Renaissance Dam is beneficial to us, we were accused of siding with Ethiopia,” said the Sudanese Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources. But We say it would be better for the lasting benefit of the Sudanese and the nations of the whole region as if they side with the truth and the reality as they did in the earlier days of the GERD talks.

Whatever the outcome of the ongoing series of technical teleconferences held by the tripartite, the Ethiopian leadership is adamant that the first phase of the GERD filling inevitably would be conducted next month. During his appearance at the parliament last Monday, the Premier firmly stated that: “the decision to fill the Renaissance Dam is irreversible.”

The Ethiopian herald June 14,2020

BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN

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