Precursors of the ongoing GERD talks

Following the commencement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011, Ethiopia immediately invited the lower riparian countries since they raised concerns on the dam. Among the initiatives during the past nine years, the countries hold for over 24 discussions on ministerial levels with round talks in Addis Ababa, Khartoum and Cairo.

Beyond these ministerial level discussions, Ethiopia in the interest of building confidence with downstream countries has initiated, supported, facilitated and coordinated various mechanisms on GERD.

The first of Ethiopia’s initiative was back to 2011 by taking the initiative and established the International Panel of Experts (IPoE) “to review the design documents of GERD, provide transparent information sharing and to solicit understanding of the benefits and impacts if any of the GERD so as to build trust among the parties”. After four field visits to the GERD project site and six regular meetings, the IPoE provide its final report to the three countries on May 2013 appreciated Ethiopia’s dam standards with few recommendations. And Ethiopia accepted and applied the recommendations of the IPoE and the lower riparian countries also accepted the report of the IPoE.

Ethiopia also took the initiative to form the Trilateral National Committee on GERD, the adoption of the Declaration of Principles on GERD (DoP) and the establishment of the National Independent Scientific Research Group on GERD.

Especially, the 2015 DoP which was signed by the three countries heads of States in Khartoum was seen as a major success after Ethiopia’s endless efforts to reach an agreement with the DoP was put guiding principles to the talks until the final agreement.

Keeping this principle in mind, Ethiopia continuously fulfilled its responsibilities even by compromising some of its interests to keep friendship and to reach final agreement in a give-and-take principle with good faith. But, every talk was disrupted and interrupted the ongoing discussion processes by Egypt’s new concerns just to keep only its hegemony over Ethiopian water.

Especially when things reach final steps, since mid-2019, Egypt raises new concerns even by breaking down previously agreed issues. Although Egypt had agreed to fill GERD from four to seven years, on the new concern it raised on July 2019, Egypt came with new filling matrix. During late July and early August, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan prepared their documents on the filling and operation of the dam to the NISG.

Following this situation, Egypt resorted to its propaganda and left the discussion with its own unilateral decision. After this situation, with Ethiopia’s initiative, once again Egypt returned to the trilateral talks in early September 2019 and resumes the talks.

As this discussion resumed, three talks were held from mid-September up to 05 October 2019, which the final discussion forum was held in Khartoum from 04 to 05 October 2019. Prior to the Ministers’ meeting, the National Independence Scientific Research Group of the three countries met in Khartoum from 30 September to 03 October 2019.

The NISGR on its final meeting considered Ethiopia’s filling and operation plan of the GERD, and the proposals of Egypt and the Sudan and the and the group reached an agreement on some points while some other issues remain outstanding. According to a statement of the Ethiopian Government on 05 October 2019, although Ethiopia and Sudan was followed a constructive and inclusive approach for the discussion of the NISRG, the Egyptian side persisted on its position of having all its proposals accepted without which is not willing to have the NISRG conduct its analysis.

After this three consecutive talks in less than a month focused on the filling and operation of GERD, the talks stopped since Egypt only wanted to accept its own unilateral proposal which totally disrupted the ongoing process. And then without the agreement of the three countries Egypt call for third party intervention on then talks although the 2015 DoP put the solution for any disagreements.

Even at this time, although it was the unilateral interest of Egypt to invite third party, Ethiopia accepted the calls of U.S. and the Wolrd Bank (WB) to participate as observers on the trilateral talks which was started since mid-November. With the presence of WB and U.S. observers’ four discussion forums were held up to midJanuary.

Even at this time, Egypt raised new unfounded concern which asked to fill GERD up to 21 years, which is a joke. At this time Ethiopian Water, Irrigation and Energy Minister during his statement said that “it seems that, Egypt is attending the discussions to do not agree”.

Even after the disruption due to Egypt calculated strategy, the three countries back to Washington and agreed to resume the talks under the presence of the U.S. Treasury Secretariat and WB president’s.

But, at last WB and U.S. shift their stance from observer to decision makers sided by Egypt which makes surprised to the world community and angered many Ethiopians. Since it is the issue of sovereignty, Ethiopia left this unfair, unjust and illegal agenda. With these endless Egypt’s conspiracies, GERD issue remains unclosed and unsolved.

More surprisingly, on 01 May 2020 Egypt wrote a letter to the United Nations Security Council about the Ethiopian national project, which shows Egypt’s ugly rigidity to the international community. Since its letter to the UNSC couldn’t hold water, Egypt also back to the trilateral agreement which the three countries started the discussion on webinar since 09 June 2020 with the presence of observers from U.S., European Union and the Republic of South Africa.

On its consecutive statements starting from Wednesday, Ethiopia announced its firm unwavering stance of win-win agreement and announced its stance the role of observers must be only observing the ongoing talks. Ethiopia with this open heart and commitment is participating the resumed talks on GERD which was decided to hold all days except Tuesday, Friday and Sunday until the final agreement is reached. But to reach final, fair and win-win agreement, Egypt should back to give and take principle to add some value to Ethiopia’s interest, commitment and open heart.

The Ethiopian herald June 13,2020

BY DARGIE KAHSAY

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