War, famine, pestilence/plague and death are the direst problems the human species faces. In the political economy scholarship these dreadful calamities are usually termed as The Four Horsemen. Ethiopia had suffered from each at different times. Of all the times, however, the period from 1888-1892 was when we were hit the hardest.
History remembers these days as “KefuQen” (Evil Days). Historians present various causes for the famine; inter alia the rinderpest epidemic triggered by Italian importation of infected cattle through Massawa is mentioned as one. The consequent death of cattle, up to 90% in many areas, deprived the peasant of his chief means of production, Prof. Bahru Zewde writes on his book ‘a History of Modern Ethiopia, 1855- 1991.
King David of Israel had once got himself in position to choose among the Four Horsemen as a punishment for he has numbered the people, and that made God angry. Famine, war and pestilence were the choices and King David chose pestilence over the others. Both the heavens and the earth witness how threatening the Four Horsemen are to the lives of human beings.
We have been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic in all aspects of our lives for months. COVID-19 has indeed proved that it is a true king as its Latin name depicts. It is dictating each and every move we make as an individual, a family and as a nation. Our social lives such as mourning, funeral and wedding ceremonies are highly disrupted; in the political arena, we couldn’t even hold the national election because of the pandemic let alone the others; and the economy has also suffered significant blow mainly in the tourism, transport and other subsectors of the service sector.
All these are however caused only by the pestilence (one of the Four Horsemen). The grip of the pandemic is not over yet as the World Health Organization has warned. Moreover, experts fear that this particular horseman might pave the way for the other horseman (famine) to pose food security and other socio-economic and political problems as it once did during the “KefuQen.”
Agriculture is the mainstay of Ethiopia’s economy. It is the dominant sector in terms of both employment contribution and foreign exchange generation. The pandemic is posing a threat to the sector as it has severely affected the other sectors of the economy. The nature of production in the sector and the sparse settlement of rural neighbourhoods do of course slow down the spread of the virus.
However, rural society is still holding public gatherings in various forms such as religious and cultural events, meetings and market places. If such gatherings are left unchecked and preventive measures are not undertaken, they are likely to worsen the spread of the virus in addition to the poor culture of sanitation.
If the virus spreads to rural areas, it may severely affect the agricultural workforce hindering production, harvesting and marketing processes since agricultural works can’t be done from home. Hence, the spread of the pandemic to rural areas may reduce agricultural output, which in turn, worsens the food scarcity situation in the country. This indicates that preventive and protective recommendations from health experts are critical for our farming population. A wide-ranging awareness creation work, therefore, should be carried out to keep the farmers healthy and productive.
Failing to do so will undoubtedly aggravate the already precarious food security problems. Bear in mind that a significant amount of grain was destroyed by the swarm of desert locust in the past few months. Experts are also warning that a second wave of the locust invasion might infest and could lead to a considerable decline in agricultural products and productivity.
The official measure taken in the transport sector to minimize the movement of people does, of course, play a positive role in slowing down the spread of the virus. It does, however, disrupt the rural-urban supply chain. The rises in the prices of dairy products, fruits and vegetables are inter alia because of the disruptions in the rural-urban supply-chain.
In the 2019 report of the Global Hunger Index, Ethiopia ranked 97th where food security refers to having physical and economic access to food that meets both their nutritional needs and food preferences. The National Plan Commission report shows that one-fourth of the country’s population requires an immediate food assistance if the spread of the pandemic can’t be controlled anytime soon. The coronavirus pandemic together with the desert locust infestation and disruptions in the supply chain are making the food security problem to be felt.
In order for that not to escalate and leave us in unbearable suffering, the paramountcy of a combined effort of local, regional and international stakeholders is undoubted. Prime Minister Abiy on his speech to the parliament on Monday has said the government is getting prepared in so many ways if the worst is to come. He mentioned that a 3.2 Billion Birr wheat and food oil has been purchased; scaling up of food banks in major cities is underway; fertilizer purchase and distribution is in good condition; supply of high yield varieties is facing a shortage as it has been in the past not particularly because of the pandemic; the government is mobilizing donations from various local and international sources.
Agricultural economists advise the participation of private investors in the agricultural sector to boost productivity in the long run. The profit motive drives investors and brings out their best to reap as much profit as they can and be able to fill the market gap as the ‘invisible hand’ metaphor states. Ethiopia for instance, spends millions of dollars to purchase improved seeds (High Yield Varieties) from the foreign market whilst the private sector could engage and substitute the import with local production.
The Ministry of Agriculture has devised a commendable mechanism of delivering its services through a digitized means. Since face-toface training can’t be given to the Development Agents (DAs) engaged in the agricultural extension services, training and top-down directives are to be delivered virtually with the help of IPADs sent to the DAs. Besides using megaphones by the DAs to alert and communicate the farmers is afoot.
The Ministry in collaboration with other institution such as cooperatives and unions has to timely avail agricultural inputs to the farmers whether with reasonable prices or on credit sales and be able to avert the disruption of the inputs supply. As to the government, we should leave no arable land idle whether private, public or investor land.
The Addis Ababa city administration is also promoting urban agriculture to its city dwellers. The lowland irrigation scheme in Afar region using Awash River need to be strengthened to preclude the immediate food security problem we are facing and also to reduce and cease the wheat import.
Overall, if left unchecked and unmitigated, the combined effects of the pandemic, the locust and the looming food insecurity will result in massively social, economic and political crises. We, therefore, need to help and protect the agricultural community to prevent the Horsemen from taking a total control and in a way exert a collaborated effort to get ourselves off this web of multiple crises. Stay Home! Stay Safe!
The Ethiopian herald June 11,2020
BY WOSSENSEGED ASSEFFA
