After the Derg established a socialist military regime in Ethiopia in 1974, many leftist groups and associations were soon disappointed by the centralist and authoritarian behavior of the new government. One of these groups was the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front), originally a student movement at the university in Addis Ababa. It mainly had an ethno-nationalist background, demanding more self-determination for the Tigray region – it initially did not aim at seizing governmental power.
Under repression from the Derg and with training from the neighboring Eritrean rebel group the EPLF (Eritrean People’s Liberation Front), the group started to develop a guerrilla army in 1975. With the support of the population, it was quickly able to move almost everywhere in Tigray but did not hold any territory. In 1981, the EPDM (Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement) was founded and followed a similar strategy in the regions Wollo and Gonder, cooperating closely with the TPLF. It quickly became clear that the Derg would never grant any more autonomy to these regions.
In 1989, the TPLF joined forces with the EPDM and two smaller armed organizations. This alliance was named the EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front). Together, they made significant territorial gains and occupied all of Tigray except for one garrison.
However, the government was still able to launch devastating air attacks on the region. This led the rebels to decide to seize governmental power. They moved southwards from Tigray through the Wollo and Gonder regions and, in 1991, after several successful offensives, they encircled the capital.
President Mengistu fled the country on May 21 and, on May 28, the EPRDF occupied Addis Ababa with little resistance, setting up an interim government with representatives from other ethnic groups.
This civil war in Ethiopia ended with an unambiguous victory for the EPRDF. With two major offensives in early 1991, the EPRDF moved quickly southwards from Tigray and overran government lines. When they marched into Addis Ababa, “almost all of the army had melted away.”
Sources indicated that the TPLF and the EPRDF controlled territory, while the EPDM did not. In fact, the TPLF and the EPDM both led a strict guerrilla war for most of the time, indicating that they did not aim to control any territory. However, after founding the EPRDF in 1989, they made significant territorial gains, mainly in the north of the country.
Tigray had been under control of the TPLF/EPRDF since 1989. Therefore, the EPRDF controlled territory and consider these last two years of controlling territory as a crucial asset for the military balance. During the last months of the war, the EPRDF kept the conquered regions under its control and even widened their territorial gains substantially by moving forward to Addis Ababa.
The fighting capacity of the TPLF and the EPDM was low, but the joint forces in the EPRDF led to a ‘moderate’ fighting capacity. Again, we consider the capacity of the EPRDF at the end of the war as decisive for the military balance. At the very end of the war, the Ethiopian army was evidently no longer able to fight. By March 1991, they were, according to case experts, unable to launch any significant counter-offensives against the EPRDF. When the president fled the country, “tens of thousands of soldiers abandoned their posts and flocked into Addis Ababa, selling their weapons or using them to intimidate people into giving them food and drink”. The army disintegrated completely.
At the end of the war, the parts of Ethiopia under EPRDF control were still substantially smaller than the rest of the country. However, as the Ethiopian army collapsed, the government lost control also over territories that the EPRDF had not conquered. Territory in the south was effectively controlled by traditional authorities or local rebel groups. Thus, the EPRDF held more territory at the end of the war.
The flight of President Mengistu was certainly a trigger for the disintegration of the army and the success of the rebel coalition. EPRDF announced victory as the end of war on May 28, 1991.
All in all, the military balance at the end of the war shows an advantage for the rebels. Only three weeks after seizing power, the transitional government, led by the EPRDF, founded a commission that was charged with the demobilization of the complete Derg army. A huge demobilization program was quickly developed.
The Ethiopian herald May 30, 2020
BY STAFF REPORTER
