Amid the intense coverage of Egypt’s maneuvering over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and Sudan’s alleged indifference on the issue being echoed among Cairo’s establishments, Ethiopia is on schedule to start the two-year partial filling of GERD’s reservoir this rainy season – without needing to notify anyone. Yet a sort of “coercive diplomacy” (a diplomacy of threat) and some other times “gunboat diplomacy” (a diplomacy backed by the use or threat of military force) seems to be playing out quietly in the River Nile banks of Cairo and beyond. How far could Cairo go with it?
The Cairo establishments have been repositioning their narration of threat crying foul as if Addis Ababa is working to cut the so called ‘Egypt’s lifeline’ – an absurd argument foiled genuine elite discourse. To some it might seem curious, even quaint, how this issue remains confusing in this era of cooperation and mutual trust as Cairo attaches to an old-age biased narrative on utilization of the River Nile.
Time and again Ethiopia has spoken its consistence with the principles set out in the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP) it has entered with Egypt and Sudan. Despite elements of the declarations that favor Egypt; by filling the GERD’s reservoir Ethiopia vows to not cause significant harm to these downstream countries. Ever since the inking of this declaration the three countries have been engaged in negotiations that entail the use technical studies to agree on the first filling and annual operation of the Dam. But even today Cairo’s establishments are hinging on third party involvement while ignoring the other option Addis Ababa is left with if the three countries fail to agree on the studies. Here the point is clear, nothing in the DoP prohibits Ethiopia from filling and testing the GERD, even if the DoP commitment was to agree on “first filling.”
The GERD being beyond a geopolitical monument that could bond the region. Ethiopia is in a rush to transform the lives of its staggering deprived population group who never had access to electricity. Egypt on other side wants a period of seven years to fill the reservoir asking Ethiopia to release more than 40 billion cubic meters of water annually, and a joint mechanism to deal with possible future drought as well as in coordination with other downstream dams, like the High Aswan Dam in Egypt.
Ethiopia is not building the GERD in vain. It wants to cash-out the hard earned investment. As stipulated in the DoP, priority will be given to downstream countries to purchase power generated from GERD. Ethiopia has been arguing that the Dam is a meant to satisfy energy demand of neighboring countries and other countries with a special emphasis to the interest of downstream countries.
Leaving nearly a decade long tedious negotiations aside Cairo’s establishments might dispute Ethiopia’s position and argue that first filling and testing is not part of the construction as striking a deal on the first filling is impossible after filling has begun. But, Ethiopia can still legally fill GERD without an agreement as silently indicated in the DoP.
Hoping this stalemate concerned the timing of filling the reservoir and the flow of water that should be release to downstream countries comes to an end, it is assumed yet Cairo might be trying to buy time to cook another agenda of diversion during these coming years. Although Egypt’s 100 million people depend on the Nile for more than 90 percent of their water needs much of them however have access to electricity. The argument is that any significant reduction in its share of the river’s water, when there was no agreed amount of share from the source, would put hundreds of thousands out of work and threatens its food security. Therefore, it is at best conviction of this writer that Cairo has to start considering the use of its other water resources, including its stockpiled groundwater.
Historically, Egypt had never consulted Ethiopia on the use of Nile waters. But after the GERD project was launched Cairo dug every possible hole that it deems to help jam the project (i.e. from blocking resources mobilization to lobbying against companies involved with the project). And while stalemate arise and the agenda should have been owned by Africa, unfortunately Egypt outsourced and sold out the issue outside Africa, particularly to the current U.S. administration which is believed for President Donald Trump’s ‘Middle East Peace plan’ as a quid pro quo.
Regardless of Egypt’s slippery positions and smear campaign to stop the construction of the Dam that evidently subscribed to the deadlock, the apparent absence of the African Union in the negotiations reduced its credibility to champion the continent’s transformation agenda.
After years of talks on the technicality of the dam with a tangible deal yet to be produced, which Ethiopia points to Egypt’s slippery trend, Cairo now took the issue to the UN Security Council by submitting a 17 page letter opposing Ethiopia’s stance to fill the Dam and requested the international community to press upon Addis Ababa. Ethiopia took the move as no surprise and eventually came up with its own document, due to be delivered to the same body in New York, reflecting on its stand with regard to the filling and overall issues on the GERD.
According to experts, Cairo’s latest tendencies of politicizing and interna tionalizing the GERD are shuttering down any hope of possible agreement over the technical issues, which only hurts Egypt itself. They say: “it is part of Egypt’s long-held slippery positions to give political fig leaf to a purely technical issue and this tendencies risk-taking the tripartite negotiation off the track.”
Though Cairo’s establishments appreciate Ethiopia’s need for the hydroelectric dam to develop its economy, they would also like Ethiopia to sign a draft deal brokered by the U.S. Treasury of State and the World Bank, which Ethiopia squarely rejected arguing the proposal hurts its national interests. In the meantime these establishments remain desperate in fueling the smear campaign by sending combative messages of Egypt’s “exhaustion of all peaceful means”. They urge everything below the sky to pressure Ethiopia to start negotiations from where previous talks left off in February, and sign the draft agreement Washington prepared. Here it is worth mentioning that Egypt initiated and remain the only party to approve this draft document.
At this very moment the patriotic rhetoric and confrontational tones are flooding mainstream and social media both in Ethiopia and Egypt. Speculation has it whether Egypt will eventually take military action to stop Ethiopia from acting unilaterally. However, any military action by Egypt would be difficult to justify under international law and officially both sides prefer a negotiated settlement to be the only option.
It is clear that both the GERD and the flow of River Nile serve greater interest for the domestic political actors in Addis Ababa and Cairo. Well, for Ethiopia the GERD, with all its glitches, has been serving as a national symbol that has united the country’s divided groups. And it will be never easy for Addis Ababa to let go such a shrine and the administration in Arat Kilo cannot afford that.
The Ethiopian Herald May 19/2020
Kiram Tadesse Contributor
