The corona virus pandemic could not come at a worse time for Ethiopia which was preparing for what many people expected to be the first truly democratic election in the history of the country. The pandemic has defied expectations. Scientists say that COVID-19 is a mysterious and mutating virus that is changing its behavior in order to adapt to different conditions. The virus is also messing up things not only in human health but also in the political, economic and social spheres in many countries; including in the least developed ones.
The politicization of the pandemic has now become a reality in many countries around the world impacting the views and decisions of leaders and provoking superpower invectives. In Ethiopia, COVID-19 is waking up long hibernating political differences, forcing them now to come into the open with elections as the axis around which the controversies rotate.
The pandemic is not only impacting Ethiopia’s health and economic institutions but also triggering political disputes between the incumbent authorities and some of the opposition formations that are questioning the legitimacy of the transitional government after its mandate expires next September. However, why politicians engage in power struggles five months before the term of the present authority comes to an end, is another mystery. They may not achieve the long and complex job of turning from divergence into convergence of views in a mere five months simply because they could not do it in the last two years.
No one knows how long the pandemic will last or what its impacts will be five months from now. Starting the succession dispute five months before the term of the incumbent government ends would be a big gamble that may or may not pay. It would also deflect attention from the big picture of the fight against the pandemic and polarize society while the urgent need is to act as one, pool resources and bring all sides together to fight the vicious virus which in itself is an existential threat for millions of Ethiopians.
Why do politicians look for more political trouble while they have their hands full of economic and social troubles the pandemic has already created? Why do they provoke bitter disputes and thinly veiled threats of a possible political implosion while most people are busy worrying about their next monthly pay or their next meals, caught as they are between phobia of the virus and fear of what the following day would bring.
Political elites may claim to think and act on the part of the masses but the latter have interests and worries that ran opposed to the former. Thus the interests and aspirations of Ethiopia’s political elites are often divergent to those of the masses and this may be the mother of all the troubles in the past as well as at present. Elections in this country have always been murky, violent and messy.
As the corona virus pandemic proves tenuous and the debate over how to govern the country following the cancellation of
the planned elections, political opinions are being polarized roughly between those who insist elections should take place according to constitutional provisions and those who seek constitutional interpretations of the provisions pertinent to the disputed election. Both sides however equally insist on the need for continued dialogue to sort out things although it is not clear whether these attitudes are genuine or not.
There are also those who propose a new transitional arrangement or a power sharing deal leading the way to the promised democratic elections at the end of this Ethiopian year. Another opinion advices to dissolve parliament and the declaration of a state of emergency to lead the political process until elections will be held.
Although some four points are now put on the table for consideration, the proponents of constitutional interpretation seem to have won the day for now as parliament has voted in favor of this alternative. Whether some opposition parties would abide by this decision is questionable as it is evident at this stage. Opposition parties are now suggesting a different and often mutually exclusive alternatives.
The opponents of constitutional interp retation however are creating a strong backlash by rejecting it. They are opposing the constitutional interpretation specific provision pertinent to the modus operandi of holding the next election by saying that there are no points of disputes and that the constitution is clear on power transfer that will be realized through democratic election every five year. The reason for the dispute is apparently the absence of any provision in the constitution that could not and did not put in place specific provisions because events such as COVID-19 were impossible to predict.
It is interesting to note that most of the views expressed on constitutional issues are often expressed by politicians who are eager to defend their positions no matter how flawed their ideas might be. What we often hear are political and not legal arguments or opinions.
The main objective of people who express political opinions disguised in legal tirades, seems to be interested in provoking a creeping governance crisis that might bring the existing transitional government into a political impasse. That would in turn force it to make important concessions to the opposition parties or commit political mistakes under relentless pressure.
Many politicians are also acting in a very irresponsible and selfish way. It does not matter how many people would die of the pandemic as long as their agenda for power seizure is kept on course. Otherwise rebels groups could respond favorably to the recent call by the UN to stop hostilities and turn their attention to the fight against the pandemic. In Ethiopia too, there are many armed and unarmed rebels who may not care much about the pandemic as much as they care about political power.
Some of the political elites even go as far as suggesting that a constitutional revision would do the job by outlining the modalities of governing the country under a state of emergency or a care taker authority. A closer look at these ideas would suggest that the partisans of this view have no clear perspective on the detailed composition or the formation of such a transitional authority or on its mandates. Ethiopia has witnessed transitional governments in the past degenerate into permanent dictatorships and this bad precedence makes politicians distrustful of one another.
Some of them suggest that it would make sense to allow the present government to stay in power by consensus beyond its constitutional mandate so that it can continue the work it has started in the fight against the pandemic until the time the crisis is over and it would be possible to hold the planned election. However, this alternative too has its problems. How can a broader consensus can be reached in a country with highly polarized political positions. The stakes for the parties subscribing to rule by consensus might also be another hurdle to the formation of a functional and stable authority under stressful conditions.
Political consensus requires honesty, trustworthiness and no hidden agendas by the participants. Ethiopian elites are not distinguished for these qualities. Given that such a political culture of tolerance is nonexistent in present day Ethiopia, it may be unclear how consensus can lead to a stable transitional authority with limited mandates. Consequently, there is no guarantee that the process might not lead to state capture through soft or hard coups or by any other unconstitutional means.
Dissolving parliament and replacing it with a temporary power sharing arrangement would be a catastrophic mistake because it would lead to illegitimacy and/or power vacuum and by removing ultimate power of decision from the hands of a quasi-representative parliament to an unrepresentative body that may not enjoy public trust. That would also be a transition from a relatively more representative form of government to a non-representative one whose mandate would not be limited or regulated by law and might soon degenerate into state paralysis or chronic governance crisis.
Dissolving or weakening the present transitional government by any means on the flimsy pretext that it will outlive its two-year mandate soon, would also be a recipe for political disaster because there may be no consensus or plan for the formation of another transitional government. Moreover, there is no precedence or experience to fall on in order to manage such a delicate and extremely fragile process in the middle of a global health crisis.
The government’s top priority at present should be to protect the people from the potential ravages of the pandemic and avoid a social implosion by keeping the economy functioning anyhow. The national election was planned for next August but COVID-19 has made this prospect unrealistic. The electoral board too has decided to postpone the election. These issues should be dealt with the constitutional provisions and not seek arbitrary solutions designed to promote specific party interests. The current chaos in the marketplace of political ideas should not allow those with hidden agendas to highjack the process and use it to make a political comeback and even attempt a kind state recapture.
The pandemic has fortunately created an opportunity for inter-party consultations and for the government to sit and think soberly as to the most feasible political alternatives. This should also be a time for deep reflection and consensus building on the political future of the nation. No regional state should be allowed to hold their separate election at this stage because that would not only unconstitutional but also a prelude to political anarchy because local elections are held after national elections under the watch of the federal election commission.
The next five months or so will no doubt provide the opportunity for political tempers to cool down so that sober reflections would lead to mature, responsible and fair arrangement as far as the transfer of power or the election is concerned. Provoking a constitutional or political crisis at this stage would however be tantamount to ignoring the plights of the people and highjack the agenda of fighting COVID-19. This should not turn into an instrument of further political polarization and even destabilization that the nation should avoid by any means.
The Ethiopian Herald May 17/2020
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
