The Easter celebrations left bringing joy calling for Ramadan extending the season of prayers and giving alms. It was a show of faithful solidarity between Christian and Muslim Ethiopians.
Despite the uncertainties associated to COVID 19 crisis at home and across the globe, the news of filling the GERD and the overall project status report has raised hopes of millions in Ethiopian. On a side news, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sameh Shoukry, in a letter he submitted to the United Nations Security Council on the
1st of May 2020 stated Ethiopia’s filling of the dam as a breach of international legal obligations and a threat to regional peace and security.
The letter requested the Council to tell Ethiopia to refrain from unilaterally taking measures including filling of the dam. It called upon the international community to encourage Ethiopia to accept the US brokered deal qualifying it as a game changer proposal that secures interests of the three countries. The letter reiterates Cairo’s continued insistence on colonial time agreements that excluded Ethiopia from the water sharing picture. It, moreover, capitalized on Egypt’s shuttle-diplomacy to lobby and network with allies who will nod yes to its hegemonic presence in the basin.
No matter what the implications of Shoukry’s letter will be, Egypt has boldly labeled Ethiopia’s approach on a fair use of Nile water resource as inconsistent with the spirit of cooperation. This non- constructive and misinforming piece subtly states Cairo’s position on GERD and its unwillingness to normalize relations. The UN security Council, I hope, will do a fact checking exercise that investigates Egypt’s unilateral measures and decisions on Nile. Despite Ethiopia’s sovereign right to the water as a resource originating from within its territory, Egypt has never consulted Ethiopia when it designed and executed its dam and irrigation projects that diverted Nile and exported water outside of the basin.
Ethiopian government while appealing to the Security Council, shall make its position clear on how colonial treaties and governments sidelined our interests and questions for an equitable share of the water. It shall diplomatically reach out to everyone through all possible platforms to state its position. It should note the fact that this poor country is funding a project which upon completion will immensely serve the people of Sudan and Egypt indiscriminately. Studies suggest that the dam will handle a flood of about 19,370 cubic meters per second and regulate water flow into Sudan and Egypt. The dam reduces siltation problems in Roseires and Aswan High Dams addressing grave concerns over lifespan of dams in both countries. GERD will ensure a steady and regulated supply of water minimizing the loss through evapotranspiration and inefficient irrigation practices. Moreover, the dam will have a potential to irrigate 500,000 ha of agricultural land through irrigation bringing in new opportunities for private investors and Nile basin countries to engage in large scale commercial agricultural production. This grand opportunity will feed millions helping countries champion an increase in their agricultural GDP and allocate not less than 10% of public expenditure to the sector. This aligns well with the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Plan of the African Union summit that came into force 2003 following the Unions summit in Maputo, Mozambique.
Despite throwing accusations to Ethiopia, Egypt, never made self-reflections and criticisms on its hegemonic use of the Nile through basin irrigation system since 3000
BC. Together with Sudan, Egypt has been exporting virtual water through export crops to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. At the same time both attracted investments from Gulf countries to own and run large scale irrigable industrial farms. Before the recent uprisings in Sudan that brought Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to power, Saudi Arabia alone invested in more than USD10 billion. The poor Sudanese farmers, however, had no access to water. People suffered from soaring prices of food items consequently leading to Omar Hassan Al-Bashir’s downfall.
Following the successful Ethiopian brokered power sharing deal, Sudan’s new government was applauded by many in the Horn of Africa except Egypt. Hamdok- Abiy marriage become worrisome to Egypt as Sudan de-routed from Egypt’s policy of mud smearing on Ethiopia’s efforts of cooperative engagement. Thus, Cairo’s broadcast and print media productions intensified their fake new fabrication illustrating Egypt’s military might and reiterating Nile-only-for-Egypt narratives. They sponsored opinions of distorted biblical prophecies. Through these pieces they told us stories of their ambitious subjugation that concludes its chapter with Ethiopia’s doom through Egypt’s superstitious-divine backed military intervention. Whereas, publications from Ethiopia and across the globe bring in a various narrative justifying Ethiopia’s sovereign right to use the Nile water and its advocacy for others in the Nile basin to get their fair share.
The stand offs between Ethiopia and Egypt for years remained on the construction of GERD. Now it is about filling it. But, this should not shadow negotiations on the use right of Nile basin countries other than Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. Nile belongs to all of them and the countries too have burning needs for hydroelectric power and production of crops to meet the food demands of their people.
In Ethiopia, civil war and ethnic conflicts kept governments for decades unprepared to feed people and expand social protection services. Internal political problems challenged governments and distracted them from the nation building engagement. Behind all these plots stands Egypt. This was evident from leaking high-level meetings from Cairo that publicly aired such plots to destabilize Ethiopia. The growing demand for change and the vision set forth by the leadership that came through is going a rough course like Nile make its way through the hard rocks. In a futile attempt, Egypt has continued to recruit and corrupt drop out negotiators and paid bloggers to lobby with farmers in Sudan against the GERD and harm relations with Sudan’s new government. Some have even dared to bring into discussion narratives that attempted to reduce Emperor Menilk II’s status through the mention of the 1902 agreement he signed with the British government. The presentation came from a manipulative approach of the issue like in article 17 of the Wuchale treaty between King Menelik and Count Pietro Antonelli of Italy, on 2 May 1889. This disagreement over the Amharic and Italian meaning grew later into a full-fledged war that resulted in Ethiopia heralding victory over colonialism in Adwa. This resistance against dehumanizing colonial administrations led to the rise of Pan- African independence movements by all people, including Egyptians, suffering under the shackles of slavery across Africa.
The intentions of the May 15, 1902 treaty particularly article III is so much of a manifestation of such a historical precedence. Now, Egypt is bringing such outdated discourse as “evidence” twisting Menelik’s agreement as if he gave away Ethiopia’s right to make investments on Nile. Why would the wise Menelik make such a historic mistake by agreeing to give away Ethiopia’s interest on Nile? Here is what the Amharic version of article III states.
This Amharic version requests Menelik not to put structures covering the full length of Nile and permit others to do the same without prior agreement with Britain. The article attests to Ethiopia’s unwavering support to cooperative dialogues and its firm position to exercise its sovereign use right of the river. The activation of this treaty, if attempted, will only add to Egypt’s list of disappointments. It never qualifies to convince us that Menelik subscribed to the colonial plots that prevent Ethiopia to build water structures on Nile and its tributaries. There is also no proof of official ratification of the treaty as the wise Menelik negotiated his interest in his language commanding the protection Ethiopia’s geopolitical interests.
Cairo’s warning of a potential regional instability and military action will not make relations normal as Ethiopians are neither coward to Cairo’s mongers of aggregation nor to death. I think, Egypt needs to revise its history lessons and look inward calmly. It shall be reminded of the 1876 surrender of Ismail Pasha to Yohannes IV in Gundet and Gura. If war is still its choice, and wherever it happens, it shall expect an assurance that millions will march to such a meaningful death. Peaceful engagement always has authority over military might. If it was for military might, USA should not have lost to Vietnam and so does Goliad to David. I believe, the UN will take lessons from its predecessor, the League of Nations, and prove not to misjudge the appeals of the poor Ethiopians and their pleas for water justice in the basin. It is our hope that UN Security Council will take into consideration the seriousness of the matter and pass a decision that sides with truth.
Regardless of the Council’s decisions, however, Abiy’s government shall be cautious of the precedence and dangers of signing a bad deal as many of Ethiopia’s rivers cross international boundaries leaving Ethiopia’s stake under challenge.
Our prayers from Addis are still with Egyptian leaders for Allah grant them the power and wisdom to settle and mature in this holly season of Ramadan. We hope that their worries of an artificial thirst and hunger dissipate like the Nile water that transpires over the Aswan high dam.
In the unlikely decision of Egypt and its allies to choose the path of the evil and undermine our struggle to transform and reform our country, the Ethiopian government and people need to prepare for the worst. Ethiopia is now at crossroads more than ever in its history. We shall set aside our internal political differences and stand strong as united Ethiopians and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed shall echo Marthin Luther King Jr.: “In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends.”
Ed.’s note: Samuel Tefera Alemu (PhD) is an Assistant Professor at the Center for African and Oriental Studies and Associate Dean for Research and Technology Transfer, College of Social Sciences, Addis Ababa University
He is reachable through: samuel.tefera@
aau.edu.et
The Ethiopia Herald May 8,2020
BY SAMUEL TEFERA ALEMU (PHD)
