• Will GERD be hostage of downstream for failing to reach agreement?
While reaching agreement on the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) strengthens brotherhood among Ethiopia and the Nile downstream countries, Cairo’s crafty stance has long been deterring a tangible deal from coming to fruition, experts comment.
Citing the recently U.S. brokered talks on the filling of the Dam, the experts lay bare Egypt tactical attempt to resuscitate the spirits of the1959 bilateral “agreement”— signed between itself and Sudan.
Speaking to The Ethiopian Herald on phone, Dr. Yilma Sileshi, Associate Professor of Hydrology with the Addis Ababa University, said in the outset of the discussions Egyptians had been in terms with the Dam’s filling plan, scheduled to start the coming July, which is five billion cubic meters first, then ten billion in the subsequent years.
He said the Egyptian side gets back to square one as they attempted to divert the talks to an uncharted course of pushing for an agreement on ‘a long-term operation of the GERD.’
As it is clear to any sane mind, the Dam is located near the Ethio-Sudanese border; hence, if a long-term deal is sealed on the waters entering the GERD, the same deal applies to its tributaries. Therefore, any development project on the tributaries of the Blue Nile that may consume the waters, say for irrigation or drinking, should first see Egypt’s green light—that is the kind of agreement Egypt wishes to achieve. Such a deal is sure to put a setback on the future development of Ethiopia.
At the final paper of the U.S. brokered draft agreement, the Egyptians and the Americans also included a statement demanding Ethiopia not to involve in projects that may contradict with the agreement’s provisions
Ethiopia has put forth an unambiguous plan of filling the Dam from 5-7 years, and also expressed in good faith to continue cooperation by examining the hydrological conditions of the downstream countries. If there is severe drought, for instance, the three countries can discuss ways of mitigating the problem. At normal circumstances, however, the waters that enter to the Dam, will be released after it generates electricity, he stresses.
“Our position is clear and succinct in that we have the full right to fill the dam, and the talks are being held with a sense of brotherhood. And this is what international law as well as supports.”
Perhaps, if a need arises to talk about water share, it should formally be requested and the talks should also be among all the Nile riparian countries per the Cooperative Framework of Agreement on the Nile, he says, adding that the talks among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt had been on the filling of the Dam.
Likewise, Eng. Gedion Asfaw, Chairman of Tripartite National Committee (TNC), told The Ethiopian Herald that Ethiopia will never negotiate on the waters of the Blue Nile’s tributaries.
The recent talks revolve around the filling of the GERD and it should not get out of this very track, he adds.
The Egyptian politicians intend to manipulate the talks on the Dam’s filling into getting an abiding law that helps them block development endeavors at the tributaries of the Blue Nile.
He also underlines the fact that Ethiopia strongly refuses any deal that intends to restrict developments on the Blue Nile and its tributaries
But, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt signed the Declaration of Principles (DoP) on the GERD in 2015. Per this document, they need to come up with an agreement on guidelines and rules on the first filling of GERD covering all the different scenarios.
It also says: the three countries “agree on guidelines and rules for the annual operation of GERD, which the owner of the dam may adjust from time to time.” And the question one raises here is: Will this stop Ethiopia from filling the Dam in July?
Fekeahmed Negash is the Executive Director of the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO). In a previous interview he had with The Ethiopian Herald, he said the agreements are on the principles and cannot prevent Ethiopia from filling its Dam.
According to him, Ethiopia did not enter any commitment that prevents it from filling and operating the Dam.
He added that it is always preferable to enter an agreement with downstream countries before filling and operating a dam to enhance the confidence of people downstream in the process and ensure that the dam does not have a significant impact on them.
“This will also give them [Sudan and Egypt in this case] an opportunity to air their concern, while Ethiopia can address relevant concerns.”
Apart from that, if agreement cannot be reached before the schedule for filling, Ethiopia’s dam cannot be a hostage of downstream goodwill, he underscored.
He concludes by saying that the DoP clearly states that the construction of the GERD will run in parallel to the studies and preparation of guidelines for filling and operation. The construction of the GERD includes filling and operation as they are designed to run in tandem.
The Ethiopia Herald May 8, 2020
BY YESUF ENDRIS
