Seasonal rains intensified across East Africa in the past week, resulting in widespread floods that caused human fatalities and displacement, as well as crop damage and loss of household assets in parts of Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, Burundi, and Yemen.
According to Fews net, the on-going exceptional seasonal rains are mostly attributed to sustained warmer-than-normal Indian Ocean, coupled with favorable atmospheric conditions over much of East of Africa.
Cropping and rangeland conditions remain generally favorable in response to the seasonal rains, despite the adverse impacts
of flooding in parts of the region. However, localized damage from desert locust has been reported in Belg-cropping areas of Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, and northeastern Uganda and there is a high risk of localized damage in eastern and central Kenya and northwestern Somalia.
The rainfall forecast indicates an increased likelihood for continued moderate to locally very heavy rains in most parts of the region in coming week, with heightened risks of flash floods in flood prone areas. However, rainfall intensity is expected to subside in mid-May.
Torrential rainfall from mid- to late April marked the full establishment of the Belg rains in Ethiopia and Gurains in Somalia,
as well as the mid-point of the March to May long rains season in Kenya, Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi. Rainfall was heaviest from April 11th to 20th in Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and coastal Tanzania, where satellite-derived anomalies were in excess of 50-200 millimeters (mm).
Accordingly, the following are the recent seasonal progress in Ethiopia. The Belg rainfall season is now well established in the country, with mostly early to timely onset and above average to average rainfall performance. Recent heavy rains caused floods and landslides in Diredawa and Gamo and South Omo zones in SNNPR, with reported loss of human lives and extensive property damages. Based on current ground
conditions, including damage caused by desert locust, slightly below-average Belg crop production is anticipated. Preliminary estimates from the government of Ethiopia indicate a possibility for about a ten percent reduction.
Sustained moderate to very heavy rains for the next 1-2 weeks, are likely to result into continued well above average seasonal rainfall performance over much of East Africa. Early season agricultural production prospects look generally favorable, but, with anticipated varied levels of flood severity and their associated adverse impacts in most flood prone areas. Seasonal and permanent river levels will continue to inundate surrounding agricultural areas with expected crop and property losses.
The Ethiopian Herald May 7/2020
BY TWODROS KASSA
Coordinated regional response to COVID-19 a must in the Horn
Coordinated regional response towards COVID-19 is a must in the horn of Africa according to PSC report.
Since COVID-19 was first reported in the region in March, states in the Horn of Africa have been taking drastic measures to curb the spread of the pandemic. While they are doing to mitigate the epidemiological and economic ramifications of the pandemic, little is said, about its impact on peace and security.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) COVID-19 strategy, announced following a virtual Extraordinary Summit on COVID-19 on March, also without/does not explicitly acknowledge the peace and security implications of the pandemic.
IGAD does in its statement warn against ‘unconnected country-specific measures to combat the pandemic’. Border closures and solid responses will not contain it – it can only be overcome through a coordinated regional response.
The lack of clarity on the mechanisms for enforcing COVID-19 response measures are peace and security challenges. Some of these suspend civil liberties and criminalize ‘normal’ activities. Such disjointed measures have already led to the use of excessive force and violence by those tasked with enforcing response measures meant to save lives, and further fractures an already tense relationship between law enforcement and poor communities hard hit by lockdowns and curfews.
The second source of emerging insecurity
stems from the economic impact of response measures such as lockdowns, restrictions on mobility, and border closures have caused an economic downturn, price spikes and a lack of work in the informal sector, which supports many in the region.
The third potential source of instability linked to COVID-19 is the politicization of the pandemic. While there are clear indications that some governments in the region are exploiting their response to COVID-19 for political gain, the same can be said of opposition parties.
Indeed, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has warned against political opportunism during the pandemic.
Fourth potential source of insecurity for communities is the pardoning of thousands of inmates to reduce the spread of the virus in overcrowded prisons. Ethiopia has released more than 4 000 who have served part of their sentences, there are fears that their release could lead to a spike in the crime rate in cities.
In Ethiopia, the immediate political and security challenge posed by COVID-19 is related to the indefinite postponement of the planned general elections for August 2020. Negotiation between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt over the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam cannot resume due to COVID-19.
In the face of the cross-boundary impact of COVID-19 on peace and security across the Horn, a concerted regional response is needed to mitigate its destabilizing effect and overcome emerging security challenges.
The Ethiopian Herald May 7/2020
BY MULATU BELACHEW
IOM records ‘significant’ decrease in Horn of Africa migrants arriving in Yemen
The United Nations International Organisation for Migration (IOM) said the number of migrants travelling from the Horn of Africa to the Arabian Gulf via Yemen has significantly decreased due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The IOM office in Yemen said in a statement that between January and March 2019, approximately 37,000 migrants crossed the Gulf of Aden to reach Yemen while fewer than 28,000 made the same journey in the first quarter of this year.
The statement added that “along the route, migrants face serious risks to their protection and human rights”.
The statement quoted Mohammed Abdiker, IOM Regional Director for the East and Horn of Africa, as saying that “all authorities have a responsibility to respect the rights of migrants, even in times of emergencies such as COVID-19”.
“IOM is concerned that migrants are being stigmatized and associated with the risk of importing diseases. Conditions along route, including barriers to health services, poor living and working conditions and exploitation, pose serious health risks,” he added.
According to the statement, last year, more than 138,000 people crossed the Gulf of Aden on boats on the so-called Eastern Corridor; the vast majority of them were Ethiopian nationals bound for Saudi Arabia in search of employment.
Source: Middle East Monitor
The Ethiopian Herald May 7/2020
