To be legally correct doesn’t necessarily mean to be right; in fact, the reverse is also true. The anti-terrorism law ratified years ago by parliament, for instance, is, without a doubt, legal but as we all know its intention, it wasn’t right. The tension between one’s moral and legal stance has gripped the public’s attention. Fighting Covid-19 on one hand and holding an election on the other before its constitutional legitimacy expires has made Abiy’s government come up with proposals to amicably resolve the constitutional conundrum.
Given the current conditions consequent of the Coronavirus pandemic, holding elections on the date specified by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NBE) has been challenged and thereby postponed. In order to resolve this complex matter, the incumbent has proposed four ‘Constitutional’ alternative ways. Dissolving the parliament, declaring a state of emergency, constitutional amendment, and seeking constitutional interpretation are the four alternatives.
Major opposition political parties have categorized all the alternatives as dangerous and politically incorrect. Some even have dared to label the intention of the proposed alternatives as an incitement for a constitutional crisis. The House of Peoples Representatives on in its 3rd Special meeting convened on Tuesday has however approved the fourth alternative as best and got it passed by a majority vote.
Several opposition parties have been saying that all the above four alternatives are defective and are incapable of addressing the impending constitutional crisis we are facing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Their recommendation is, therefore, a political solution than a constitutional. Meanwhile, the Tigrean People Liberation Front /TPLF/ vows to hold its own elections and even calls on the government to halt “attempts to dismantle constitutional order.’’
Birtkuan Mideksa, Chairperson of the National Election Board of Ethiopia /NEBE/ has, of course, denounced TPLF’s conduct as unconstitutional. In fact, the five-point resolutions adopted by TPLF are self-contradictory. On one hand, it accuses the Prosperity Party of dismantling the constitutional order, and on the other it defies the constitutional authority of NEBE through a public vow to conduct an election.
Political scientists forward various possible outcomes (scenarios) if the present tensions among the stakeholders of the national election persist to be egotistic. As per the articles framed
within the FDRE constitution, all political parties (including the incumbent) will be having equal legal status. However, trying to prove oneself right and interpret the law in ones favour doesn’t bring positive results given the sensitivity of the political culture. Priorities of each political party should be directed towards the public health and the unity of the nation.
If the most influential political parties try another way out such as instigation of popular protests or riots in order to resolve the looming crisis, scholars forewarn, the entire social, economic and political atmosphere of the country would severely be obliterated. Both intrastate and interstate relation (of Ethiopia) will be disrupted and leave the country vulnerable to any form of foreign interference or attack. The political unity of the elites by itself deters foreign intervention and possible military attack. Some of the arch enemies of our country may even dare to ‘officially’ build a (foreign) relationship with a particular faction or a political party that can entertain their interests with a quid pro quo involved.
For a state to be stable and be able to build bilateral/multilateral relations, recognition from other states and various international organizations such as IMF and WB are of paramount importance. Disruption of foreign relations results in a protracted intrastate instability. And this in turn adversely affects the state capacity to acquire international assistances and also forces foreign investors to leave the country let alone attract new ones. On the contrary, the illegal firearms trade is
likely to soar when tensions get tighter and militarization becomes a necessary option for factions to get their voices to be heard.
On the other hand, the pandemic, according to some health researches, is expected to spike in June and July which in turn poses a threat to the lives of the people. Socio-political instability and economic contraction are likely to make the incumbent desperate and thereby be a recipe for desperate measures to be taken. Such a scenario can be a fertile ground in breeding a dictatorship and lawlessness both at federal and regional state levels, analysts warn.
The economy, which has been contracting due to business closures at both national and global levels, is making us incur bitter costs. Remittances, loans, grants and other sources of foreign currency of the nation are plummeting. Besides, the government is reallocating its budget to fight the pandemic. This, of course, limits the state’s capacity to conduct a full-fledged national election without the technical and financial support of other developed countries and international institutions. This, in turn, might make the election susceptible to foreign interference. Therefore this economic downturn, the consequence of the pandemic, would result in a fiasco if the political tensions couldn’t be resolved in a selfless and patriotic manner.
A substantial threat posed on the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam /GERD/ should not also, be undermined. The existences of several nations whose interests are linked directly and/or indirectly with Nile river basin also pose a geostrategic threat on the GERD.
A political science scholar from Addis Ababa University whom I discuss with advises for all political parties to sit for discussion and come up with a better arrangement. According to him, if opposition political parties put their lust for power above the public interest and keep pressuring the incumbent, the country will certainly be a centre of very complex chaos in the Horn. And the actors shall be set aside on the wrong side of history.
The other major issue that opposition political parties need to pay attention to, he added, is that if they are preoccupied in weakening the popular legitimacy of Abiy’s government, it will ultimately backfire on the country’s journey towards a democratic culture. However, Abiy’s government needs also to cultivate the culture of tabling for discussion with oppositions as it has started doing so.
Doing otherwise won’t turn out to be good. The scholar forewarns that if concerns of oppositions are not entertained inappropriate manner, there will be no stone they left unturned to delegitimize the incumbent. This would result in a lot of anti-government movements and protests within the opposition camp after September. Businesses might also not declare their taxes if the all-inclusive approach is not implemented.
The scholar has also labelled the stage entertained between prominent political personalities Jawar Mohammed and Lidetu Ayalew on OMN television as dangerous. His fear emanates from historical realities in which oppositions come together only for the purpose of overthrowing the government in the office. These two figures, he continues, run two diametrically opposite political programs, ethnic nationalism and civic nationalism. Besides this major contradiction, they haven’t been around the table for years. So let’s pose a question, why now? Instead of political posturing and egomaniacal attitudes, he recommended in favor consultation among the elites is of paramount importance to resolve the current situation and help build democratic Ethiopia.
One undeniable experience that any politically conscious person can witness is the rule of law in practice, of course with its own limitations. No government in Ethiopia has been this patient with such an egoistic attitude of opposition parties. The Prime Minister has undeniably tried to change the tone of our politics since the very day he came to power. The state’s relation with political parties, however, hasn’t changed as the state-society relation did. It sometimes seems like pouring a ‘new wine’ in an old bottle’. The opposition parties are behaving like the way they used to do during the EPRDF reign. The Prosperity Party (the new wine) has tried to introduce new democratic reforms however the opposition parties couldn’t suit themselves with. Such a scenario results in a total loss – loss of the wine and the bottle.
In fact, the incumbent has shown its allegiance to hold the election on the due date, August 30, if the situation hasn’t forced to do otherwise. Therefore, tabling the four alternatives for discussion with political parties shouldn’t in any way be perceived as a recipe for authoritarianism. It can’t be seen as an auto-legitimizing framework for what could actually be a prolongation of the term of office. Though the very right of the Ethiopian citizens to exercise their constitutional right to vote is compromised, I would say it is worth it. Let’s not set the ground for the egomaniac elites to entertain their egoistic hedonism. Safety First!
The Ethiopian Herald May 7/2020
BY WOSSENSEGED ASSEFA
