Nowadays terrorism is one of the biggest threats of modern society and it is very difficult to predict and prevent it especially in certain zones where members of terrorist organisations thrive. There is now practically no society in the world that is immune from some form of terrorism. We have recently come across expressions such as ‘home grown terrorism’ as opposed to ‘imported’ one. Western countries are finding it ever more difficult to monitor and take preventive measures to neutralize their own citizens who have been ‘radicalized’ and turned out to be terrorists.
Terrorists could be based at home or abroad but reach home through internet and social media. The new communication means is presenting formidable challenge to security bodies. Open societies find it difficult to control these means from reaching and ‘poisoning’ their communities. The existence of the failed state of Somalia has turned the Horn of Africa to be a den for active terrorism.
For years the Government of Somalia has been struggling to consolidate its power and control the country out of the hands of “al-shabaab”. The central government has continued to get the supports of various bodies including the UN, AU and a coalition of Western nations and a group of Horn of Africa countries contributing troops and logistics to defeat al-shabaab and its splinter groups. But their efforts are producing short of expectations. The narrative that al-shabaab has been debilitated was proven false by
its recent attacks both in Somalia and neighboring Kenya. This must serve as a wake up call for Ethiopia and the other neighboring countries. Al-shabaab seems to have found fertile grounds even in Kenya and Tanzania by apparently recruiting new militia from their nationals among the disenchanted youths.
These are risks that must be considered even here. What they did some weeks ago in Nairobi is testimony to their muscles. Despite sophisticated security apparatus, they managed to penetrate the hotel and sow havoc with brutality. Only the prompt and well organized response of Kenyan security prevented an even more tragic blood bath.
It then carried out another attack on AMISOM soldiers including Ethiopians and the damage was reportedly heavy. Ethiopian military of course has announced that it has later on inflicted heavy casualties on al-shabaab operative in retaliation. The question is how prepared are we here to foil such an attack?
How could this body manage to continue to be so defiant and resilient when a group of powerful military continue to attack it including the technologically advanced Pentagon? Does that show the group’s debilitation? It tells rather the contrary. When five years ago Westgate in Nairobi was attacked, pledges were made that would never happen again. But the recent replica in Nairobi suggests that it might take more efforts to thwart al-shabaab’s menaces. So, possible appetite for such attack could not be ruled out in Ethiopia.
But it all depends on what sort of precautionary measures we are armed with. Al-shabaab is a ruthless terrorist organisation that has been carrying out suicide attacks in and around Somalia but fortunately for Ethiopia its evil hands have not been stretched here. Many people fear that this could someday happen, especially if we seriously consider what turbulent times the government of Ethiopia is going through currently. Fishing in troubled waters could be easy for such body.
There are people who feel that, with the kind of reform underway, possible loose ends in the security system might lure alshabaab’s appetite. We know very well that our security apparatus, other organizations and our society as a whole is not cooperative of extremism but the current state of affairs may not subscribe to the scenario of years ago. Can we say that our state is as strong as it used to be some seven years ago? The movements of people and illegal currencies, the trafficking of arms and other illegal trade suggest that security in our country is a big ask, and the sooner it is addressed the less risk will come from extremist elements.
If there is anxiety for these and other reasons in the country now, there is however also a radiation of hope and bright future for the population which once felt marginalized and excluded from its own affairs by the elitist government composed largely of corrupt autocrats.
The realization that justice will take its own course in the prosecution of those who committed crimes against the people is another source of gratification. There is some sense of relief in the air. However, the risk of being overstretched remains in these endeavours and in the meantime security issues may be overlooked risking to create gaps in security endeavours.
Putting all our attention on traffickers, arms dealers and money launderers, terrorist cells may eye a chance to proliferate underground. As it is true that the security situation in the north with Eritrea has been transformed into peaceful and friendly there have however been introduced into the country various forces not all of them peaceful or unarmed; and who knows what missions they may have. Ethiopia is now an ‘open society’ more than any time in the past.
The mix could be explosive if not regulated well. And the lower echelon of the government structure may not be totally committed to the reforms underway. In fact, many people believe that with the involvement of Ethiopian forces in Somalia al-shabaab forces cannot exclude attacks against Ethiopian targets and if they can do it in Addis, it could be a huge triumph for them.
What many think is that the roads to Ethiopian major cities are quite tight and the national law enforcement, the security apparatus and the society itself are all difficult to admit infiltration. Citizens are watchful. But as stated above, considering the current dynamics in the country, it is legitimate to ask: How far the security apparatus is perfect?
Ethiopians often like to say ‘it is Divinity that protects and preserves this nation. The country is blessed’. While such forma mentis may encourage a feeling of fatalism that discourages efforts of preparation for the worst, it is on the other hand positive because people go about their businesses defying all forms of eventual violence. A people mentally hostage cannot survive for long.
The economy would crumble if no one dares to venture in some activity of any kind. In the meantime, observers warn that it is always better to arm ourselves for the worst. The dictum is ‘get ready for war if you want peace’. Political forces better check with their members, recruits and leaders at all levels to find out if there are dangerous infiltrators or connections with terrorist cells.
The long arms of the enemies of the reforms could stretch even to that extent because these are cynical people that would not refrain from passing a death sentence on the country just to bury deep their crimes and sins.
They do not seem to realize that the wheels of history cannot turn back. The old system cannot revive. People will not settle for any form of tyranny, oromai! That is why there is need to watch out vigilantly every move that has the potential of a suspected terrorist attack. Terrorism could only be defeated if each and every citizen watches out and checks with the person next to them. If infiltration is avoided, the dangers could be reduced to the minimum.
Herald FEBRUARY 5/2019
BY FITSUM GETACHEW
