Today’s guest is Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, a professor of public policy, Addis Ababa University. Dr. Costantinos has worked as Senior Policy Adviser to the UN in New York and as chairperson of the African Union Anti-Corruption Board. Besides teaching public policy and sustainable institutional reforms at different institutions for postgraduate programmes, he is currently working in the finance sector. Moreover, he has published eight books and numerous articles in these areas. He also serves as chair of several civic organisations.
The Ethiopian Herald requested him to share his views on the response of nations to COVID-19 and its consequences. Excerpts:
Herald: It seems that the world is facing the darkest time in the history of humankind due to the deadly virus, COVID-19. What would be the socio-economic consequences and the socio-political impacts the virus brings across the globe? Is it possible to guess the global power shift it might be resulting in?
Dr. Costantinos: First, let us start with the socio-political impacts of the virus that manifests itself in infecting millions and thousands have died and the economic recession it will propagate much worse than the 2008-2009 financial crises. By every measure, it is a great disaster, so it is natural to assume that it will prove to be a turning point in modern history. It is bizarre to even speculate the type of world the virus will define, but the post-COVID-19 world will be overpoweringly altered from the status quo ante.
As global industrial supply chains disrupt, as countries look unto themselves and stockpile essential supplies, close their border, and travel comes to a standstill, the crisis is compellingly questioning the virtues of global interconnectedness. Many believe globalisation will be history, while many others have faith it will usher in a new age of global mutual dependence, while others think it will supercharge nationalism, undermining free trade, and lead to political crises in some nations, fast-tracking global governance transformation.
As Farrell and Newman (Foreign Affairs, 2020) show, the virus is an enormous stress test for globalisation. Not only has globalization allowed for the rapid spread of contagious disease but also it has fostered deep interdependence between firms and nations that make them more vulnerable to unexpected shocks. Now, firms and nations alike are discovering just how vulnerable they are. Nevertheless, Covid-19 may not kill globalisation; yes, it is brittle, notwithstanding the fact that it has lifted billions out of poverty.
Secondly, the global power shift as a result of the virus is less predictable. One scenario is the pandemic will bring about a new global political and economic regime, potentially projecting China to the most influential locus of global governance As Richard Hass writes in Foreign Affairs, the pandemic and the response to it have revealed and reinforced the fundamental characteristics of geopolitics today. As a result, this crisis promises to be less of a turning point than a way station along the road that the world has been traveling for the past few decades. It is too soon to predict when the crisis itself will end.
The mastery for the global power shift will hinge on the degree, to which people follow health professionals’ guidance and the availability of quick, accurate, and affordable testing, antiviral drugs, and a vaccine; and the extent of economic relief provided to individuals and businesses. Yet the world that will emerge from the crisis will be recognizable. Hass concludes by saying, “Waning American leadership, faltering global cooperation, great-power discord: all of these characterized the international environment before the appearance of COVID-19, and the pandemic has brought them into sharper-than-ever relief. They are even likely to be prominent features of the world that follows”.
Herald: The developed nations with well-advanced health structure could not withstand the impact of the COVID-19. Rather they are being affected by the virus, losing total control over the pandemic. Besides the nature of the virus, does the failure in leadership have any contribution to their loss?
Dr. Costantinos: The failure in leadership is visibly apparent in Europe, the Americas, and Africa. More and more voices are questioning the rationale for the general lockdown imposed in most of Europe and the US in response to the coronavirus epidemic. Such unprecedented suppression
of civil and economic liberties during peace continue to strike many as hardly justified. Whether from a legal, ethical, or economic standpoint, we may soon find that the cost of the policy reaction was immense and grave.
Mihai Macovei (Mises, 2020) says, “We have yet to see the real toll of the draconian confinement measures taken to stop the contagion. A high price must also be paid for the gargantuan financial and fiscal packages supposed to alleviate the impact of the largely self-inflicted economic crisis. However, not all regimes have taken this path. Several Asian countries at the epicentre of the Covid-19 outbreak, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, have not instituted general lockdowns. Most reacted early with widespread testing, tracking, and isolating only those found positive for the virus, the number of infections and fatalities have remained low so far. At the same time, social and economic activities have continued largely unobstructed.
Stephen Davies (Reason, 16 Apr 2020) undergirds the fact that the world is experiencing the worst pandemic since 1918, many people may wonder if civilization is as secure as it might be. History offers insight into this question. The civilizational breakdown is a recurring historical process. Looking at how it has happened before can help us understand what causes it, the forms it may take, and how far away from it, we may be. Civilizational crisis and collapse were given a formal scholarly definition in Joseph Tainter in his book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies” whose model underlies the work of later generations of scholars.
Louise Richardson (Foreign Affairs, 9 Apr 2020) says, “One of the very many disheartening aspects of the pandemic has been the near absence of international institutions in fashioning a response to this global crisis. The Group of Seven leading industrialized nations could not agree on a joint statement, much less joint action, and the Group of 20 could agree only that the problem was global and serious. The UN Security Council has been silent, despite UN Secretary-General’s pleas for a coordinated global response. Disease, like other grave threats to the world today, does not respect national borders. Yet the response to this pandemic has tended to be a nationalist one. The only international institution in evidence throughout the crisis, the WHO, has been increasingly ostracised by the US, its efforts stymied by chronic underfunding and a lack of enforcement authority.
The pandemic itself reflects a failure of international institutions as well as governments. Multiple warnings preceded the outbreak in China in late 2019. The SARS epidemic of 2002 and 2003 is believed to have originated in a Chinese wet market. Nevertheless, wet markets continued to operate there and in other countries, and there is some evidence that the new virus may have begun in a wet market as well. The Ebola epidemic of 2013–16 should have served as another warning. Since all but one of the more than 11,000 people who died during that crisis did so in Africa,
however, industrialised nations largely ignored the lessons—chief among them that international cooperation is necessary to contain outbreaks of infectious disease.
Herald: The Ethiopian government has been taking a series of measures to minimize the spread of the virus. In your opinion, how do you measure the effectiveness of those measures? What measures would you suggest Ethiopia should implement to control the virus?
Dr. Costantinos: Africa will be in a difficult situation to temper the COVID19 if the pandemic is out of control. FDI is weakened and export volume of major commodities, such as flower and leather products, will drop. There will be no conference or recreational tourism, which will dent into the income of the hospitality industry. Foreign currency stock can be depleted. The crises globally may also eliminate remittance (over thirty million have lost jobs in OECD). Countries providing aid and credit will transfer their budgets to their own economic stimulus. This indirectly reduces imports of basic consumption and other essential goods. Production is reduced because of less agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers and product commodity prices will be undervalued, letting business activity, weakened. Not only will the creation of new job opportunities be diminished but also those who are already employed will be likely to be laid-off. All of this will undermine the fragile economy, leading to robbery and crime, especially in cities.
Ethiopia until now has taken measures to curb the spread of this global pandemic. The government of PM Abiy has been building its capacity to handle all necessary checks on the virus and has prepared hospitals to receive patients. So far, it has done very well. It has been providing up-to-date information and guidelines for people to protect themselves. All health professionals have received special training to deal with the virus and the vision of the Ministry of Health.
The country’s borders have been closed and the regional states have taken measures to limit peoples’ exposure to the virus by limiting travel and human activities. All incoming passengers are quarantined for 14 days and Ethiopian Airlines has stopped flying to many destinations. Sporting events and public meetings have been discouraged. Religious institutions leaders have asked their congregations to pray at home. Schools have been shut down along with non-emergency government offices. Moreover, all bars, nightclubs have been closed. Prisoners with light crimes have been released to minimise congestion that may lead to the spread of infections.
On the way forward, the founding tenets for public health programme sustainability that will facilitate the creation of strategic partnerships at all levels in Ethiopia must augur on:
Active social mobilisation and participatory involvement of relevant stakeholders
in assessment, planning, programme implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of all activities, thereby strengthening capacity for local development. A stakeholder-driven multi-track communications system, designed to promote interaction between different stakeholder groups by enhancing their capacity to articulate and share knowledge and experience effectively, through the dissemination of appropriate messages via various communication educational systems. This entails building and enhancing national and local level capacity for participatory decision- making, to promote self-directed state and community action, enhance gender equity;
Increase the capacity of preparedness by establishing and ensuring the essential preconditions, which enable them to respond effectively to public health challenges. Appropriate policies, strategies, programs, and activities will be analyses, formulated, and advocated in order to improve the allocation of resources;
Partnership enhancement, to transfer appropriate health technology systems that enhance household action and make public health more available to the vulnerable. Strong linkages between the self-directed state, indigenous adaptive strategies, and contemporary knowledge will be reinforced, supporting community ownership of the programme;
Capacity development should not be solely equated with training, education, and technology transfer. Attention should be shifted to the environment in which people apply their skills – an environment conducive to mobilising social groups and motivating individuals as basic requirements for promoting capacity utilisation and retention. Capacity building is not just a matter of providing people with the skills and knowledge to accomplish tasks and solve problems; it also means providing the environment in which individuals can exercise their capabilities.
Capacity building is imperative, particularly, of the disadvantaged, (women, youth, children, etc.) to stabilise services over time, at the community and household levels, by promoting understanding and consensus on the underlying causes and potential solutions to public health challenges. This will be done by establishing government and society’s capacity to manage programmes by providing operational, administrative, and technical support efficiently and effectively
Herald: The nation has postponed the national election for an undefined time as a result of the pandemic. What would be the possible political consequences on the nation’s political landscape?
Dr. Costantinos: Because elections govern the allotment of power, it involves impalpable features; hence, they are contested in symbolic as well as empirical terms. Just as parties compete to win
votes, they also want to dictate the results of elections in their favour. Hence, the empirical task is straightforward. First, we must answer questions of electoral quantity. Second, are questions of electoral quality? Third, are questions of electoral meaning? Each is subject to one’s reading, for example in the light of voter turnout rates (electoral quality); elections are generally prone to cacophonous elucidation, various political agencies will regard outcomes inversely.
Under these settings, parties are set in an unending antipathy. The meaning of the election also becomes elusive rendering it to opposing reading by sundry stakeholders.
Herald: The spread of the virus is causing a big loss to the economy of Ethiopia. What measures would you suggest for the government to minimize the possible damages to the economy?
Dr. Costantinos: Economic reforms initiated by PM Abiy that must be taken swiftly by the government to enable the National Bank to provide sufficient funds to the banks under negotiated interest rates and grace periods. This will enable the banks to provide working capital to service and manufacturing businesses to retain their staff and continue the production of goods and services as much as possible. The government may also consider forgoing
income taxes to be paid in a future date in addition to supporting the business with funds donated by donors. Agriculture is the backbone of human wellbeing in Ethiopia. Farmers must be supported to ensure food security. The government must strengthen its safety net programmers. People will need food and utilities (water, electricity, etc.) People with special needs (street children, the destitute, and the homeless) need to be addressed immediately.
The Ethiopian Herald April 28/2020
BY WAKUMA KUDAMA
