I was recently watching a television talk show and one of the guests, who is a medical doctor, was saying that Ethiopia is very lucky to get the opportunity and the time to learn from the mistakes other countries made during this corona virus pandemic. He also said that the country should not miss this opportunity to organize and mobilize the people in case the pandemic spreads with greater speed and intensity. According to some experts, the European countries that are now hard hit by the pandemic failed to learn from China and South Korea that acted fast before the disease spread quite uncontrollably. In the last three weeks since the first case appeared in Ethiopia, the government is doing what is possible within available resources in order to mobilize the nation to prevent a large scale outbreak. The number of reported cases in the country is still low even by African standards. Almost all the reported cases are imported infections. Yet, since the disease has the tendency to spread exponentially, it would be prudent to act fast and do everything possible to limit its economic and social impacts. Despite the vigorous public awareness campaigns that are going on throughout the country, not a few people are taking the matter quite lightly as they are often reluctant to follow and implement official instructions and guidelines to prevent a large-scale outbreak. Obviously, the national efforts to stop the virus in its tracks, although commendable, are also proving very challenging. The nation has limited resources at its disposal and the economy was not in very good shape even before the corona crisis. The government’s prevention strategy is facing behavioral and cultural constraints. While hand washing is largely embraced as the key component of this strategy, social distancing on the other hand is proving more difficult to implement even in the capital Addis Ababa where most activities are taking place. The need to stand and act as one in the face of the pandemic is still lacking the necessary vigor. The Chinese could achieve something of a miracle in curbing the spread of the infections simply because they acted as one and stood together starting from the earlier days of the outbreak. India last week imposed a three week nationwide lockdown and more than a billion people are now behaving and acting as one and follow and implement their government’s decision to the letter. Those who break the rules are punished and there is a strong enforcement mechanism in place. A total lockdown or shutdown like the one implemented in India may be difficult to imagine let alone implement in Ethiopia because of economic limitations. Most people in Addis Ababa are living from hand to mouth with no alternative incomes and a total lockdown would condemn these people to outright famine. The government has no available financial resources to help absorb the shocks of a shutdown. The dilemma is that lack of the stringent action to stop the spread of the virus is likely to make things even more difficult. The choice is something between the devil and the deep sea but sometimes the devil may prove easier to handle and survive than the deep sea. If India, which is a big country with the second biggest population in the world has opted for a lockdown. But Addis Ababa with an estimated population of 5 million will may not bear the brunt of a total shutdown. The ideal option would rather be something in between. Partial stay-at-home strategy, if strictly implemented, may prove better adapted to the reality on the ground. The Chinese model of containment does not obviously work here in Ethiopia because economic conditions are radically different in the two countries. The Indian model of containment may look more realistic but does not work here because of economic disparities in the two countries. Partial stay at home as it is implemented now may be working better. But this strategy too needs to be updated in accordance with the results. We often speak about the pandemic in military terms equating to a foreign invasion or aggression. Metaphorically speaking, the pandemic is potentially the deadliest foreign invasion we could ever imagine. The problem is that many people do not act as a nation under siege. We are taking things lightly and treat the pandemic as a passing inconvenience. This is totally wrong. Not only wrong but also dangerous. We are not still acting as a nation, in unison and with enough determination to repeal the aggression. The corona pandemic should be taken as a threat to national security and national survival. If we look at Ethiopian history, epidemic outbreaks were often accompanied with large-scale famines because the rural population was decimated and there was often serious shortage of labor force to do farm work. Epidemics or pandemics were often the causes as well as the consequences of large-scale famines. As a society, we are more prone to indulging in myths; half-cooked solutions and unrealistic options that together only lead to relaxing our guards and loosening our vigilance. True, Ethiopian society is still a traditional one and our outlooks are largely anchored in old traditional practices. Let us take for instance the case of the suggested remedies against the coronavirus. Scientists and government health advisors are day and night telling us that this virus has no known treatment and still less a cure and that the only measures that the public should stick to is the Word Health Organization guidelines for prevention. As a society we tend to look foreign solution with suspicion and we stick to our own myths disguised as “solutions”. As a result of this, we see here in Addis, a proliferation of shops advertising all kinds of potions like alcohol, garlic and lemon as powerful antidotes against the virus. All sorts of quacks and self-proclaimed village charlatans are beating their breasts proud of their newly discovered cures. On the other hand the government’s repeated calls for adhering to international norms and practices as articulated by the WHO are often ignored. We know that social distancing is one proven remedy against the spread of the virus yet; religious congregations and church attendances are conducted in packed compounds as before. While the church leaders call on their followers to adhere to these norms, lack of enforcement mechanisms is allowing many churchgoers to behave like in the pre-corona days. One of the fatal mistakes the Italians made and are paying dearly now was their refusal to adhere to these norms and refused to implement behavioral changes. This should be the basic lesson we should refer to whenever we discuss these things as a society. But we are not doing it as many instances clearly show. There may be some change here and there but it is not enough to make a radical break with past practices and medically dangerous lifestyles. The government is the only authority that is leading the fight against the virus. It is like an orchestra that is playing to deaf audience. State and private media are covering the corona crisis extensively. They are conducting talk shows with experts and government representatives. There is even too much talk about the issue but little practice by way of enforcing the rules and policies. The government too is often criticized for its lack of enough toughness to force the public follow the norms and regulations. Only tough governments can lead countries out of this kind of dangerous and potentially devastating crisis. Government should not let people fall victim to their old prejudices and lifestyles while their lives are at stake. The Ethiopian government has the duty and responsibility to save the people from this crisis by taking any tough measure provided that it is taken with a view to saving lives. Not only people but the government too needs to change its behaviors in these hard times when democracy is a luxury and permissiveness a death sentence. Indian Prime Minister Modi is not being criticized for the blanket lockdown he has introduced. Even the most downtrodden of Indians are respecting his decision although they are the hardest hit economically. As such it is not an evil deed to save most people from death by hurting some of them temporarily. The most urgent priority in Ethiopia now is to prevent the virus from spreading by any means available. The government is doing a fine job of working on the logistics and resources to deal with the bad days ahead. Yet, no amount of resources would help skirt the disaster once the virus assume a critical level of geographic and demographic spread. Medical experts, doctors and other professionals should be involved as volunteers in this national and decisive mobilization for the day of reckoning. Only expert advice and realistic ideas that are implemented without delay and with the most formidable national energy and commitment available would only prevent this dangerous virus from spreading visibly or invisibly. And we not much time left to engage in this critical endeavor.
The Ethiopian Herald April 5/2020
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
