With dozens of countries entering a full-scale lockdown as part of a drastic measure to contain the coronavirus pandemic which turned the world upside down, Ethiopia which so far recorded few confirmed cases might consider lockdown as the next inevitable measure if things go to the worst.
Experts that The Ethiopian Herald approached for interview weigh on the costs and necessities of the restraining order as different regional states partially banned interstate transportation services with a view to slashing movements of people.
Since the country reported its first case, people have been urged to stay indoors and avoid gatherings. Over the days, states came up with various respective measures with some blocking public transportations also tightening movements of people in and out of the checkpoints.
From ordering civil servants to work from homes to closing services frequented by large crowds, the federal government continues to take measures that would help fight the virus.
Also, there have been donations coming from public and private sectors to help people who are in need of urgent food aid and may face economic crushing as low income business would be affected following the wide ranges of government measures. As the cloud of uncertainty and possible increase of reported cases soars, closure and lockdown are on the cards which experts predicts that things could be intensified in the days to come while urging government and the public to collaborate to ease the costs the country may have to endure.
Caught between growing fear of possible spread of the virus and putting every possible measure with a sense of urgency, the experts advise the entire people to demonstrate unity and solidarity to ease the ramification that can be triggered due to measures the government taken. Economic ramifications is one of the costs where some economists warn the stringent steps could spark panic in the country indicating the need to show wise leadership and strong coordination among the public and private sectors and the people.
Locking down of cities like Addis Ababa whose population is dense and diverse is inevitable and a must, says development economic expert, Zafu Eyesuswork Zafu speaking to The Ethiopian Herald.
Nothing could be more important than making sure that lives are saved and that everybody is supplied with some of the much needed basic necessities. Also, nothing could come without cost. Everything has its own consequence. The choice is whether we have to save lives or prepare for the worst to unfold without taking the must do actions.
“For me, no matter how painful it could be, a large-scale closure of cities is a must take action if the country is to spare the lives of its millions of people. We have seen China and other countries successfully containing the pandemic by taking strict restraining order.”
Cities like Addis Ababa are hotbed for the spread of the virus, and the only way to avoid the resulting catastrophe and grim repercussion is to block the city.
But, Zafu does not hide the economic and social daunting repercussion that should be ensured.
Homeless people widely live in the city that can barely protect themselves from the virus, and the harm will be devastating provided restraining order is not imposed. Banning movements in the city is tough and the government should consider law enforcers to make sure movements are restrained, Zafu argues.
Critical areas that could bring more harm than good to the people in case of lock down should be investigated earlier than later. For instance, water woos contribute to the spread of the pandemic at time of lock down. And the government needs to find ways to shelter and fulfill the basic necessitates of homeless people and ensure good supply of other basic goods, he adds.
“The virus is too big to be left to the government alone. Fighting the virus requires the coordination of everyone. Contributing supports and working hand in hand with the leaders is essential. There should be large scale mobilization of military capacity and other security forces to make sure that the measures put in place are enforced efficiently.
Kibour Genna, an economist, wrote on his Facebook page that the “fix should not be worse than the problem”.
Around the word, things are at a standstill. Money is not being made or spent. The economy is collapsing. The virus is still ravaging Europe and America, but here in Africa, the virus is teasing us with death. As far as we know, only people of certain age are particularly at risk, especially with pre-existing conditions.”
Various countries have used different ways of dealing with the crisis: China went for a complete lockdown, Japan seems to have kept the coronavirus outbreak under control without the mandated lockdown, he says.
Sweden has 2,510 cases and 42 deaths, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, compared with 2,916 cases and 12 deaths in Norway and 2,014 cases and 34 deaths in Denmark. Yet, the Deans have shut schools and many businesses, banned large gatherings, and handed the government sweeping emergency powers: Sweden has gone down a more laissez-faire route. Schools, bars and cafes are still open. Social distancing is recommended but only those aged over 70 or otherwise at risk are asked to stay home.”
Here in Ethiopia, a country that has not reported a single death, where seven out of ten people have no savings to cover two days’ worth of living expenses, where over crowded slums with limited facilities mean insurmountable daily hurdle, how can anyone expect things to go back to normal with a shutdown? One needs to balance health with livelihood, he insists.
Still, it is fair to say that some industries might indeed need government’s assistance to get over the emerging economic slump. The question is what does the public get in return? Saying that the survival of these industries should be rewarded enough wont’t do. Plus, no government help should be provided without strict oversight about how it is used, he insisted.
For me, he says, the economic wisdom lies in saving small businesses and their employees, not with loans but with some support to their fixed costs, like rent or some loan rescheduling as an immediate back to business. As the country is poised to fight the virus, more fierce measures are to be considered. That is at least what the government is signaling as tough days are yet to
