The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) recently held what it called the election stakeholders conference to make its final election time table official so that the partied that will take part in it would conduct their activities accordingly.
The Board should be commended at least for two main things. First it has largely secured its independence from executive meddling as it was the case in the past despite the fact that much of its more than 2 billion birr budget is allocated by the government. Some of its budget is covered with money contributed by mostly European governments that are supporting Ethiopia’s transition to a democratically -elected government.
Second, the NEBE has won the consensus of the participating opposition parties as to its status as a neutral election conductor. Despite some doubts and criticism expressed by some parties as to the neutrality or independence of the NEBE, the overwhelming consensus is that the Board is indeed free from executive diktat as it was mostly the case in the past. There is therefore a radical difference between the old and the new NEBE according to its composition and the way it is conducting its business as it is headed by Birtukan Midekssa, a former dissident lawyer whose integrity is public knowledge.
Perhaps the third point that has earned the NEBE a considerable degree of respect and acquiescence form the election stakeholders is positive record in successfully conducting the Sidama referendum which was in a way a test case for the Board. The Sidama referendum was conducted professionally and successfully despite the atmosphere of uncertainty and stressful situation that accompanied the process. It may be unrealistic to compare the Sidama referendum that took place in a relatively small constituency while the national election will be a huge event in which an estimated 50 million voters are expected to take part.
Usually, national elections in Ethiopia took place in May while the forthcoming election is scheduled to take place the coming August. According to statements issued by the Board, the election is rescheduled in order to give additional time both to the participating parties as well as the Board in order to wrap up pre-election preparations. Election 2020 cannot pushed beyond August because a new government and parliament will have to be formed by September.
However, the revised time table has proved one of the most contentious issues that had divided the stakeholders into those who wanted the election to be postponed further until a more suitable condition would emerge and those who agreed with NEBE’s time table. Some of the stakeholders expressed their views as to the need for postponing the election indefinitely citing security and time constraint as the main reasons.
This camp pushed the idea that a transitional government need to be established and prepare the election. However, the idea did not seem to have enjoyed the support of the majority of the stakeholders and more particularly those of the main parties that insisted on respecting the constitutional provision on this particular issue.
The parties that insisted elections should take place as scheduled insisted on the fact that the present administration and parliament will finish their mandate by August and this would create a power vacuum unless the election takes place before September 2020. NEBE’s time table is therefore considered a kind of balancing act to accommodate the views of those who worry about a tight time table and those who think the election should be postponed indefinitely, which might be a recipe for political crisis as some people fear.
Elections are always messy and there is no model for holding a perfect one. Even in countries with more than two hundred years of democratic tradition and electoral experience such as the United States, elections are often replete with confusion, unpredictability and even breach of established electoral norms and ethnics. Even American elections are not predictable or tidy as they used to be in the past. Controversies, accusations and counter accusations have become the new normal in electoral politics there. The situation might be even more chaotic in developing countries where the available experience in democratic politicking may become even messier.
Ethiopia is barely emerging from a long period of undemocratic rule when elections were almost always controversial, chaotic and marred by riggings and violence. The entire process leading from the preparation to the execution of elections was shrouded in a veil of mystery, secrecy and executive diktat that made the final outcomes implausible, unacceptable and sometimes leading to violence by the ruling authorities in which many innocent people lost their lives in a political event that could turn out otherwise.
One of the main reasons for the ouster of the previous TPLF-led regime was its gross violation of all electoral norms and common sense by declaring itself the winner of a landslide victory by taking all the seats in parliament. This had angered not only opposition parties but also the electorate that was eager to see a more balanced parliamentary majority and legitimate representation at the highest levels of political power.
The hope is that the forthcoming August election will rectify past mistakes once and for allow and allow the Ethiopian people choose their legitimate government in an election that must be free, fair and plausibly democratic and conducted according to internationally acceptable standards of fairness. This does not however mean that the election will be a walk in a garden on a sunny summer afternoon. There are complex factors that may impede the process both at the pre and post-election stages.
First, security concerns are legitimate and realistic as sporadic unrests and acts of violence instability are still perpetrated in some parts of the country. Although such unwelcome events might be expected in a country as complex as Ethiopia, critics argue that the government should put the situation under strict control as soon as possible.
Second, the complex and diverse and divisive political agendas at regional and federal levels often find expression in acts of violence that makes the perpetrators not only invisible but also unaccountable due to executive lenience as some people argue. Third, frequent breaches of rule of law and the absence of a culture of compromise and tolerance have generally made the political playing field not only frenzied but also unpredictable and often worrying to the general public.
Peace and stability are of course indispensable preconditions for conducting not only normal day-to-day activities, but also for taking part in electoral activities. Recent promises by the Prosecutor General to take tough measures against illegal activities in general as well as in connection with the forthcoming election is welcomed by the public with a grain of doubt although the announcement had also created some hope in vulnerable communities around the country. Tough measures are also promised to be taken against arms trafficking, money laundering, and human rights violations. Despite the recent judicial reforms, there are still legal backlogs that will have to be tackled as soon as possible by all those involved in the administration of justice.
The NEBE is apparently doing its job quite successfully despite the pressure of time and criticism from some quarters. What will make the forthcoming August election different from previous such events is the unpredictability of what shape the process will take in the coming six months or so.
The NEBE has come up with a detailed time table covering all the steps along the road leading to Election Day. It is now up to the parties to articulate their election manifestoes and offer them to the public. Nationalist politics seemingly takes the upper hand in current politics across the country. Yet, policy issues are also expected to occupy the front seats as election debates start and parties try to convince the electorate with their programs of action.
Ethiopia is facing not only political challenges but also tremendous economic, social issues. Parties are expected to come up with various strategies to address these issues. Massive unemployment, growing income inequality and poverty are some of the challenges that are making life increasingly unburnable for tens of millions of people.
The business community, foreign as well as domestic investors, players in financial sector, as well as advocates of economic liberalization and what is generally known as the business class have also their own set of priorities and issues that call for effective solutions and need to be addressed by the competing parties. Workers both in towns and the rural areas have other sets of priorities that need to be addressed by parties with social democratic leanings.
What the electorate apparently need and expect to see is a diversity of views and policies that express the interests of all sectors of society instead of focusing on abstract identity issues alone. Identity politics also needs to be addressed but it should not be the exclusive concern of the parties running to win seats in parliament and implement their programs in a diversified, truly representative and truly functional parliament where issues are genuinely debated and adopted according to democratic norms and procedures and not according to executive diktat as it used to be in the not so distant past.
The Ethiopian Herald Sunday Edition February 23/2020
BY MULUGETA GUDETA
